trea-turner-cbs.jpg
Imagn Images

This week's Sunday Night Baseball matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Cleveland Guardians will determine the series winner as Cleveland won 6-0 Friday and Philly took Saturday's game 7-1. Both teams are off to great starts this year, with both teams at 23-16. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. 

The Phillies send staff ace Zack Wheeler to the mound while the Guardians counter with Luis Ortiz. Wheeler is 3-2 this year with a 3.35 ERA and sub-1.000 WHIP as the veteran right-hander continues to dominate opposing hitters. He's taken his game up a notch, if you can believe that, as he's striking out 11.6 batters per 9 innings pitched, which would be the best mark of his 11-year career. Ortiz is 2-3 with a 5.30 ERA and gave up five earned runs against the New York Yankees in his last start. He split time between the rotation and bullpen the last two years in Pittsburgh, but all seven of his appearances this year have been starts. 

The Phillies are -181 favorites (wager $181 to win $100) on the money line according to SportsLine consensus odds, while the Guardians are +151 (bet $100 to win $151). 

Angelo Magliocca, a regular contributor to The Early Edge and CBS Sports HQ, is a seasoned MLB handicapper up 123.5 units over the last three MLB seasons. He's put together a three-leg parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday Night Baseball, with a Phillies infielder playing a key role. You can view all expert picks for Phillies-Guardians, as well as other MLB games, only at SportsLine.

Phillies vs. Guardians SGP (+340 on DraftKings -- 0.5u)

  • Phillies money line
  • Luis Ortiz 3+ walks
  • Trea Turner 1+ hit

The Phillies dropped the first game of this set on Friday as they were brutal with runners in scoring position, going hitless in eight at-bats. They were out-hit nine to six by Cleveland, which isn't notable, but they lost by six runs and were held scoreless thanks to a strong showing from Gavin Williams and the Guardians' bullpen. That set Saturday night up as a great redemption spot for the Phillies to put runs on the board, and they did just that, taking the game 7-1. It took the Philly bats until the eighth inning to break out, though, and Joey Cantillo was the victim while Tanner Bibee scattered five hits over seven strong innings. Sunday Night Baseball and primetime TV will be the stage for this rubber match between two of the better teams in baseball, as both currently at 23-16 through nearly 40 games. Each are in second place in their respective divisions and hold a playoff spot. 

Zack Wheeler (3-1, 3.55 ERA) should provide a massive edge in the starting pitching department here, and I'm going to back the Phillies on the money line. His opposition, Luis Ortiz (2-3, 5.30 ERA), has stifled a few lineups already this year, but the expected ERA is near his real ERA -- both sitting above 5.00 -- and he's been hit hard with a high barrel rate. Ortiz has allowed at least four earned runs in two of his last three starts and he pitched to a 4.31 expected ERA last year, so I'm not convinced there's a ton of positive regression coming here. He's been better against lefties with a .210 average vs. a .268 average allowed to right-handers, but the home runs were an issue against the left side last year when he surrendered 12 long balls in 63.2 innings. The same trend has somewhat continued this year, with three bombs allowed to lefties in just 20 innings and an average exit velocity of at least 94 mph on his three main pitches, which screams negative regression.

The Phillies' lineup has been patient to start the year, averaging nearly four pitches per plate appearance and posting the third-highest walk rate in MLB. Ortiz has thrown 92 or fewer pitches in five of his seven starts but has still managed to walk at least two batters in five straight and at least three batters in three of those five starts. Lefties have proven to give him trouble in terms of free passes, with 13 walks in just 20 innings so far. He also had a higher walk rate against lefties. At +145 odds on DraftKings, I am playing the third walk from Ortiz as a half unit straight bet and also including it in this parlay. If you are fine taking reduced odds on the parlay, I would play the straight bet Over 2.5 walks and then 2+ walks in the parlay.

Lastly, that .268 batting average allowed to righties comes back into play here, as we're backing Trea Turner to record at least one hit. He saw his five-game hitting streak come to an end on the final day of April, and he promptly kicked off a new streak as we turned the page to May, hitting safely in nine straight games now. Turner always hits near the top of the order and will be on the away team here with nine guaranteed at-bats. He also has two hits in six career at-bats against Ortiz with only one strikeout in there, which is something I love to see. 

Potential Additions:  Bryce Harper to record an RBI, Kyle Schwarber to record a walk, Trea Turner to record a run