Bracketology Bubble Watch: Auburn cruises to big win; Kentucky looks for key victory on Wednesday
The Wildcats have a chance to pick up their second Quad 1 win of the season Wednesday against Mississippi State
By
Jerry Palm
•
4 min read
New Mexico lost its fourth straight game on Wednesday, this time at home to last place Wyoming. The last two games, the Lobos have been without starting guard Jaelen House, who is averaging 17.3 points per game -- second behind Jamal Mashburn, Jr. -- and leads the team in assists. He seems to make such a difference that the Lobos have gone from one of the best teams in the conference to the worst in his brief absence. No matter, though, New Mexico has to earn selection on its own merits. Injury consideration, if given at all, is for seeding, not selection.
Oklahoma State lost at home to Kansas, ending the Cowboys' five-game winning streak. Normally, I wouldn't be too worried about a team in the Pokes' position, but three of their next five games are on the road and all are against Quad 1 teams. That's life in the Big 12.
Auburn annihilated Missouri to pick up arguably its best win of the season. There is still work to do for the Tigers, who play three of their next four on the road before finishing up at home against Tennessee.
Wisconsin, meanwhile, picked up a home win over former bubble team Michigan. The Badgers have two more home games on deck against reeling Rutgers and middle-of-the-bracket Iowa. Wisconsin should also consider those must-win games.
There are eight bubble teams in action on Wednesday including two "Double Bubble" games in the SEC.
NCAA Tournament locks
Locks based on résumé: 9 | Bids secured: 0 | At-large spots remaining: 31
| Conference | Locks | Teams |
|---|---|---|
ACC | 0 | |
Big East | 0 | |
Big Ten | 1 | |
Big 12 | 2 | |
Pac-12 | 2 | |
SEC | 2 | |
American | 1 | |
Others | 0 |
On the cut line
| Last Four In | Record | NET |
|---|---|---|
| West Virginia | 15-11 | 25 |
| North Carolina | 16-10 | 40 |
| Wisconsin | 14-10 | 80 |
| Mississippi State | 17-8 | 41 |
| First Four Out | Record | NET |
| Kentucky | 16-9 | 46 |
| Texas A&M | 18-7 | 33 |
| Arizona State | 18-8 | 65 |
| Oregon | 15-11 | 50 |
| Next Four Out | Record | NET |
| Wake Forest | 17-9 | 73 |
| Seton Hall | 15-11 | 61 |
| Clemson | 18-7 | 77 |
| Virginia Tech | 15-10 | 56 |
Check out all the teams on Palm's Bubble Watch, the field of the 68 and the entire bracket on the Bracketology hub
Wednesday's 'Double Bubble' games
Kentucky at Mississippi State
8:30 p.m. | SEC Network fuboTV (Try for free)
| 1 |  |
This is a battle between the last team in and the first team out of Monday's bracket. Let's start with the first team out. Kentucky's primary issue is a lack of quality wins. The Wildcats have the big win at Tennessee, a Quad 1 victory, but have no other win against a team in the bracket. A win here may not be that either if it knocks MSU out, but it would be Kentucky's second Quad 1 win. | |
| 2 |  |
For the Bulldogs, it is important to defend your home floor against teams you are competing with for a spot in the field. MSU is only 5-8 against the top two quadrants but does not have any losses worse than that. Four of their losses have come to Alabama and Tennessee. | |
Arkansas at Texas A&M
9 p.m. | ESPN2, fuboTV (Try for free)
| 1 |  |
| Nick Smith returned for Arkansas against Mississippi State on Saturday, scoring five points in 17 minutes of action. Look for more time and production as he gets into game shape. The Razorbacks need him for this stretch of three must-win games. | |
| 2 |  |
| The Aggies have a nice conference record, but that does not mean anything by itself. Their only Quad 1 and 2 wins are sweeps of Auburn and Florida and a home victory over Missouri. That win over the Tigers is currently the only one over a team in the top half of the bracket. In fact, it is the only game against a team in the top half of the bracket. Two Quad 4 losses are holding Texas A&M back, and they need better wins than this to pull themselves up. | |
Other bubble teams in action Wednesday
| 1 |  |
| vs. Florida State, 7 p.m. – Clemson is another team doing well in its conference but is lacking a good overall resume. Nonconference Quad 4 losses to South Carolina and Loyola-Chicago, along with an ACC loss to Boston College, are dragging the Tigers down. This matchup begins a three-game stretch of potentially disastrous losses. | |
| 2 |  |
| at Georgia Tech, 7 p.m. | ACC Network, fuboTV (Try for free) – The Hokies are hanging on by a thread. They have a couple nice wins at home over Virginia and Duke but were swept by Clemson and Boston College and lost at Syracuse. That will be tough to overcome, and adding a loss to the Yellow Jackets may make it impossible. | |
| 3 |  |
| at Colorado State, 10 p.m. | FS1, fuboTV (Try for free) – The Broncos are another team trying to atone for a couple of bad losses. They have a Quad 4 loss to South Dakota State and a Quad 3 loss to Charlotte. Boise State's best win this season came against Texas A&M. At this point, the Broncos need to limit their losses to teams in contention for the tournament. | |
| 4 |  |
| at Washington, 11 p.m. | ESPNU, fuboTV (Try for free) – The Ducks had won four out of five prior to a loss at home to UCLA on Saturday. They finish the regular season with games against the five teams at the bottom of the Pac-12 standings. Home or road, those are must wins. | |
All references to NCAA tournament selection records and trends refer only to tournaments going back to 1994 with the exception of 2021. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of nonconference games in 2021, those rankings were not reliable enough to be considered.
