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The Texas State Bobcats will take on the Baylor Bears at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday at Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium. Former LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda's first season at the helm in Waco didn't go as planned on a number of levels, with a pandemic-shortened season resulting in a 2-7 record. Meanwhile, Jake Spavital's second season didn't go as planned either, with the Bobcats going 2-10.

Both programs will be looking at 2021 as a chance to reset and will hope to take a couple of building blocks from last season and move forward. The Bears are favored by 14-points in the latest Baylor vs. Texas State odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under is set at 53. Before entering any Texas State vs. Baylor picks, you'll want to see the college football predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 1 of the 2021 season on a 57-37 run on all top-rated college football picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Texas State vs. Baylor. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football odds for Baylor vs. Texas State:

  • Baylor vs. Texas State spread: Baylor -14
  • Baylor vs. Texas State over-under: 53 points

What to know about the Texas State Bobcats

Texas State struggled in large part due to a defense that gave up 38.2 points per game and 496.8 yards of total offense per contest last season. But Spavital's crew were within a single possession of a win in four of those 10 losses and had a late-season win over Arkansas State. The Bobcats overcame giving up 654 yards in that matchup by taking advantage of penalties, generating a critical turnover and getting a couple key stops.

Meanwhile, Spavital's offense generated 332 points, taking Texas State past the 300-point mark for a season for the first time since 2015. Brady McBride is back at quarterback and won the starting job over Tyler Vitt (who he split reps with last season) and NC State transfer Ty Evans. McBride threw for 1,927 yards and 17 touchdowns with just seven interceptions last year.

What to know about the Baylor Bears

Baylor went 2-7 in 2020 but lost games to West Virginia, Texas Tech and Iowa State on the road by a single possession and also competed well against Texas and Oklahoma. Now Aranda will welcome back 10 defensive starters and 85 percent of last year's defensive production, which should make them more formidable against the up-tempo offense of the Big 12.

Gerry Bohanon has been named the starting quarterback after Charlie Brewer transferred to Utah during the offseason and he and former BYU offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes will put a fresh face on the offense. Grimes helped turn Zach Wilson into the No. 2 overall pick in last year's draft. Bohanon is a former four-star recruit with dynamic athleticism that should fit Grimes' play-calling style well.

How to make Baylor vs. Texas State picks

The model has simulated Baylor vs. Texas State 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning over and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Baylor vs. Texas State? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college football picks.