Miami vs. Ole Miss prediction, pick, spread, odds: Hurricanes, Rebels meet in Fiesta Bowl CFP semifinal
Ole Miss and Miami meet for the first time since 1951 on Thursday with a spot in the national title game on the line
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4 min read
Miami and Ole Miss are chasing history in the College Football Playoff. Ole Miss has already broken the school record with 13 wins, and is closer than ever before to winning the school's first solo national title. Miami has bucked expectations, sneaking into the playoff and navigating the most difficult postseason path to reach the semifinals.
It's the ACC vs. SEC, a high-flying offense against a big-time defense. It's The U against The New. No matter who wins, the victor will land in the national championship as an unlikely participant.
Simply put, No. 10 Miami vs. No. 6 Ole Miss doesn't get much better in terms of stakes and storylines. The Rebels could win a national title without Lane Kiffin, who bolted town for rival LSU -- and grabbed a few Ole Miss assistants -- before the playoff. Miami can cap its long-gestating return to glory under alum Mario Cristobal, who left Oregon three years ago to lift his alma mater back on the national stage.
Neither team is short on superstars. Quarterback Carson Beck is the most accurate passer remaining in the playoffs. Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss went from a Division II national champion to a backup on the Rebels' bench to perhaps the most electric player in the postseason. Georgia couldn't keep up with him in the quarterfinals as he led the Rebels to a thrilling, 39-34 comeback victory.
Miami's defense has been a brick wall, allowing only 17 total points in wins against Texas A&M and Ohio State in the CFP. They sacked mobile quarterback Marcel Reed seven times on the road. Julian Sayin, the nation's most accurate passer, couldn't pick up first downs.
The Fiesta Bowl pits two of the most fascinating stories in the CFP.
Miami vs. Ole Miss: Need to know for Fiesta Bowl
Trench warfare: Miami's postseason run has been highlighted by the incredible pass rush provided by Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, who have helped lead the nation's best sack-producing defense. The Hurricanes have 12 sacks in two playoff games and have recorded at least four sacks in four straight games, pushing their total to 46 for the season. Their pressure rate is also an elite 40.5%. Ole Miss only allows 1.3 sacks per game, ranking in the top 20 nationally, and actually ranks behind Ohio State, which gave up six sacks to Miami. Still, the difference for the Rebels is quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, whose mobility kept Georgia out of reach. The Bulldogs had zero sacks and only three tackles for loss in the quarterfinals. Ole Miss is sacked on only 3.1% of pass plays, ranking seventh nationally.
Championship pedigrees: Ole Miss has never won a solo national title, and Miami is chasing its first since 2001, but championship-worthy quarterbacks lead both teams in their pursuit of history. Chambliss led Ferris State to a Division II national title last season before transferring to Ole Miss. Carson Beck is 36-5 in his career, including a 15-3 record against ranked opponents. He's the first quarterback to win that many games over three years since 2012-14 (Marcus Mariota). Beck has completed 74.4% of his passes, but in the last two games, he's thrown for fewer than 150 yards for the first time in his career as a starter. Chambliss has thrown for 300-plus yards in eight games this season, including a career high in the win last week against Georgia.
Which elite running back steps up?: Get ready for a run-off in Arizona. Miami's Mark Fletcher Jr. has been a bull in the playoffs, especially late in games, rushing for 262 yards in the postseason to rank fourth all-time in CFP history. Ole Miss' Kewan Lacy is a scoring machine, recording rushing touchdowns in the last eight games while picking up an incredible 877 yards over that span. Lacy's 23 rushing touchdowns rank third in SEC history, behind two Alabama running backs who won national titles in their respective seasons.
Where to watch Miami vs. Ole Miss live
Date: Thursday, Jan. 8 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: State Farm Stadium -- Glendale, Arizona
TV: ESPN | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
Miami vs. Ole Miss prediction, picks
If Miami struggles to affect Trinidad Chambliss in the pocket, the Rebels win. If the Rebels can't protect their quarterback against defensive ends Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, the Hurricanes win. Chambliss has escaped pressure most of the season, but so had Texas A&M's Marcel Reed before Miami sacked him seven times in the first round. Ole Miss' defense is solid but not elite, which should allow the Hurricanes to score at least three touchdowns with a multitude of stars who have been kept at bay against two elite defenses in the CFP. Ole Miss has scored 30-plus in eight straight games. Pick: Over 51.5
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