Why Miami can return to glory, complete storybook College Football Playoff run to national championship

Mario Cristobal has the Hurricanes one win away from playing for that national championship on their home field

The Miami Hurricanes were slotted at No. 18 when the College Football Playoff Selection Committee revealed its first set of rankings on Nov. 4, setting up a daunting path for the two-loss team from the ACC to make the CFP. But Miami stayed focused on each opponent, and after stacking wins and slowly climbing up the rankings, Mario Cristobal's team received the final at-large bid to the 2025-26 CFP field, checking in at the No. 10 spot in the committee's final rankings. 

Merely making the bracket meant Miami made school history with its first-ever College Football Playoff appearance, but after two rounds of play, the expectations have been adjusted dramatically. This is not a Miami team that's just happy to be contending for titles -- this is a group that can fulfill the wildest hopes of Cristobal's hire and win the school's first national championship since 2002. 

And while such a suggestion might have been considered lunacy back when those first rankings were released on Nov. 4, it's undeniable now that Miami has arguably a good shot at winning it all. The Hurricanes are the betting favorite in the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl against Ole Miss, and oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook have Miami listed at +340 to win it all, third on the board just behind Indiana and Oregon.  

Before we get into some of the more tangible reasons that Miami can be the last team standing this season, it's worth mentioning the ways that history and circumstance are setting up what could be a truly storybook run for a program that's packed decades of tales into college football's history. Miami, of course, has not been on stages this big with title opportunities this close since a controversial pass interference penalty against Ohio State in the BCS National Championship Game at the Fiesta Bowl in 2001-02. 

The Hurricanes got a taste of redemption by taking out the Buckeyes in the quarterfinals, and now they can complete the cleanse with a win in Glendale in the semifinals. Winning the semifinals would also set up one of the biggest single nights in Miami football history, as the Hurricanes would then be competing for the national championship in their backyard, on their home turf, with Hard Rock Stadium set to host the title game on Jan. 19. This team has played, and won, in Blacksburg, Pittsburgh, College Station and Dallas since its last home game on No. 15. The opportunity to return home more than two months later with the game's biggest prize on the line would be an all-time moment for Miami football, and given what we've seen from this team and what's ahead, it's absolutely the expectation. 

So with the vibes properly addressed, let's get into the more football-specific reasons why Miami can win its next two games and claim the national championship.  

More CFP predictions: Why Ole Miss can win it all | Why Indiana can win it all

Best defensive front still standing 

With 12 sacks in its two College Football Playoff wins, Miami has now jumped to No. 1 in the country in both sacks (46) and defensive pressures (220) while maintaining a top-10 pressure rate (40.5%) on the season. Mario Cristobal has built the identify of this team along the trenches with elite talent along both lines of scrimmage, but the wins against Texas A&M and Ohio State were notable for how the defense consistently won snaps with pressure on the quarterback on key downs but also routine run stops that prevented both opponents from getting into any kind of rhythm on offense. Texas A&M was held to just 89 rushing yards on 35 attempts (2.54 yards per attempt) in the 10-3 win in the first round, and then Ohio State managed even less with 45 yards on 24 attempts (1.88 yards per attempt). Though the Buckeyes may have wanted to be more balanced, they were forced to throw the ball 35 times to account for their struggles on the ground and the early deficit created by Miami's hot start. 

That's the recipe for success with a group that's stacked up from end-to-end with game-changing talent. Reuben Bain has long been a leader for Miami, the home-grown blue chip star whose talent was evident from Day 1. He's backed up that talent with a relentless work ethic that shows up with his pass rush, and even when teams are dedicating extra blockers, he consistently fights his way through to get the quarterback off his mark. Of course, teams can't dedicate too much attention to Bain, because on the other side is Akheem Mesidor, who actually leads the team in sacks with 10.5 and has 3.5 sacks here in the CFP. Mesidor transferred from West Virginia prior to the 2022 season to be a part of Cristobal's first team, and now the sixth-year senior has nearly completed his goal of helping Miami get back to the promised land. In between you've got senior David Blay and junior Ahmad Moton, a pair of 300-pound defensive tackles who eat up space and press the pocket to allow those elite edge rushers to feast. 

Stopping teams on early downs with great run defense sets up third-and-long scenarios where Bain and Mesidor can wreck the timing for obvious passing downs. It's a tried and true way to win football games that any defense hopes to execute, but not every defense has the kind of experience and talent as Miami with the best defensive front left in the playoff. 

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Battle-tested resiliency  

Miami has had the toughest College Football Playoff path of any of the four teams remaining, and in both of the wins, the team has found great strength in its resiliency. Playing on the road at Texas A&M, the No. 7 seed, and then against Ohio State, the No. 2 seed, in the Cotton Bowl represents the toughest road in terms of seed but also both opponents presented talent and athleticism matches for Miami's star-studded roster. While Oregon and Ole Miss started their CFP campaigns with Group of Five opponents, and Indiana got a bye to the quarterfinals, Miami has had to go into uncomfortable settings as the underdog twice and emerged victorious both times. Against the Aggies, it was the team's ability to rally from a potentially devastating fourth-quarter fumble to get the scores and stops needed to win. Then, in the upset win against Ohio State, the Hurricanes were able to stand tall and defend their early lead against every one of the Buckeyes' comeback efforts. 

There is a great confidence that is being built by these experiences that can prove to be invaluable, and Miami's players have seen a competitive edge thanks to surviving the wars of a schedule that includes the toughest CFP path but also started with a win against Notre Dame. The Hurricanes have six wins against teams that were ranked in the top 25 at the time of the game, and with each of those victories has continued to build even more belief in their belonging as a championship team. 

Game-breaking athleticism on both sides of the ball 

With just 34 points combined in two CFP wins, Miami's offense has not exactly lit up the scoreboard so far in the postseason. But though there is an absence of production, there is not a lack of game-changing plays, as these heavyweight bouts are often determined by the one or two moments where elite athleticism rises to the surface. At this point in the playoff, the Hurricanes are not going to overwhelm any opponent with talent but the ability for that talent to break loose when the opportunity presents itself is unique with this Miami roster. 

It's the kind of game-breaking athleticism we see when running back Mark Fletcher breaks loose for a 56-yard run against Texas A&M to set up the only touchdown of the game for either team, or defensive back Keionte Scott jumping the route to pick off Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin and then explode 72 yards the other way for a momentum-swinging defensive touchdown. There is obvious, jump-of-the-screen athleticism with star freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney, and though he was mostly kept in check by Ohio State's defense, the commitment to stop the CBS Sports Freshman of the Year prompted more opportunities for CJ Daniels and Keelan Marion. Throw in the aforementioned pass rush duo of Reuben Bain and Akheem Mesidor, as well as some absolute transfer portal gems like safety Jakobe Thomas and linebacker Mo Toure, and what you find is a group that has been well-evaluated and well-developed to be at an athleticism advantage to no one, even on the game's biggest stages. 

Miami has routinely had players on its roster that were projected to be elite when they came out of high school, but this 2025 Hurricanes team is the group that has actually delivered results that match on-paper projection, and in many ways exceeded the expectations some of these players had coming out of high school. High-level roster building in the modern era requires both a commitment to the high school recruiting but also the ability to evaluate the transfer portal to fill in the right pieces. Mario Cristobal and his staff have hit it out of the park with this crew, blending both home-grown talent with elite athleticism out of the transfer portal to field a team that's two wins away from winning a national championship.