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Happy New Year! Don't do anything I wouldn't do. But seriously, please stay safe. Have fun and drink responsibly. Just like that we have only two full NFL DFS slates this season. Let's make the most of it. Before we dive into Week 17, shout out to anybody who played Joe Burrow stacks last week. He had a career day with 525 passing yards and four touchdowns. Of course, Tee Higgins was the main beneficiary of that production. It turns out that before the game Ravens defense coordinator Don 'Wink' Martindale had some choice words about Burrow. Safe to say Burrow was listening. What a stud!

Burrow will be in play in Week 17 as the Bengals host the Chiefs in one of two games with a total 50 points (the other being Cardinals-Cowboys). Unlike most of the season, we have a massive 14-game slate here on Sunday. That's what no football on Thursday or Saturday will do. You might be wondering how to handle a main slate with this many games. The answer is you just find more games to cross off your list. For example, I'm not sure the Panthers-Saints with a 38-point total is moving the needle much. More games also means more big spreads. We have four double-digit favorites with the Patriots -16, Bills -14.5, Bucs -13, and 49ers -12.5. Speaking of those 49ers, that seems like a good place to start.

Trey Lance vs. the field

It may seem dangerous to trust a rookie quarterback in his second career start, but said rookie is just $4,800 on DraftKings and $6,400 on FanDuel. That severely lowers his risk because you don't need him to do much to pay off his salary and it allows you to pay up at other positions. In Lance's previous start he went just 15-29 for 192 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception. He did, however, run the ball 16 times for 89 yards. There have been many positive reports this week about how much better Lance has looked in practice recently, which makes for a rookie who is gaining experience. The Texans defense has played better, allowing just one touchdown pass or less in six of their last seven games, but it does still struggle mightily against the run. That's where Lance will do most of his damage. Also, considering that playmakers on the 49ers, Lance doesn't need to do much as a passer. Just get the ball to Deebo Samuel and George Kittle and let those guys work. Lance should be in heavy consideration for your cash games and also in a few GPP lineups. He's not the end-all, be-all, however. There are other elite quarterback stacks you should consider.

Burrow and Patrick Mahomes figure to be very popular on the slate and rightfully so. I can also make strong arguments for each of Josh Allen, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford. My favorite as of now is Dak Prescott with either or both of CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. Prescott is coming off a ridiculous game himself as he threw for 330 yards and four touchdowns against Washington. This game against the Cardinals has shootout potential plus that defense has allowed the eighth most Fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past month. It's this very reason why Mike McClure is on Kyler Murray in this spot. Here's what he had to say on Fantasy Football Today DFS:

"I'm going to have a stack with Kyler Murray, James Conner, and Zach Ertz because that's where I think the majority of the Fantasy points, the majority of the offensive output is going to be… I'm no longer worried about Kyler Murray and his health. I saw a lot of good things in that last game in terms of how he was running the football. I think that's going to happen again."

Here are my favorite stacks and no, you won't find Lance on here because I prefer to play him without one of his pass catchers.

Running backs to target

Welcome back to the main slate, Jonathan Taylor! Taylor finally had his touchdown streak snapped at 11 games last week. He still managed 100 rushing yards, though, something he's done in eight of his past 10 games. The guy has been ridiculous and deserves MVP consideration, though running backs rarely receive any votes. With all that being said, I don't love using Taylor this week. I think it's fine if you want to but there's currently a decent amount of running back value, which allows you to spend up at wide receiver and tight end. I'll likely have a lineup or two with Taylor but it's not my favorite move on this slate.

He figures to be very popular, but Sony Michel is the move at $5,800 on DraftKings and $7,100 on FanDuel. Michel has 20+ touches in four straight games and 19 red-zone opportunities during that span, third most in the NFL. He seems to have his burst back, but it definitely doesn't hurt playing in an offense that features Kupp, Odell Beckham and Van Jefferson. The other chalky running back priced a bit higher is David Montgomery going up against the lowly New York Giants. Montgomery's usage has been ridiculous over the past month or so. He has a 22% target share since Week 13, second most among running backs. During that span he leads the NFL with 21 red-zone opportunities. Everything is there for Montgomery right now.

Here are my favorite running backs in that mid-tier price range:

  • David Montgomery, $6,500
  • Ronald Jones, $6,300
  • Darrel Williams, $5,800
  • Sony Michel, $5,800
  • Devin Singletary, $5,400

How to get different

We don't often get to contrarian plays, but let's change that here in Week 17. If you're looking to play Lance or any of those chalk running backs, you need to find a few players who project under 10% ownership. Two of my favorites on this slate are Jaylen Waddle and Rashaad Penny. Both are currently projecting for about 6% ownership. Waddle is having a ridiculous rookie season and he's only getting better. He has eight or more receptions in four straight games and faces the Titans defense this week. Honestly, it doesn't matter what the matchup is. The Dolphins are creative in how they scheme him, and Waddle just did it against the Saints, one of the best secondaries in the NFL.

It took some time, but Penny finally found something. He has 135+ rushing yards and a touchdown in two of his last three games. Just. Stay. Healthy. The Seahawks are favored by a touchdown in a great matchup against the Detroit Lions, a defense allowing the third most Fantasy points to running backs this season. Penny is a good way to gain leverage off similarly-priced running backs in Week 17.

Here are my favorite options that are currently projecting under 10% ownership:

  • Joe Mixon, $7,500
  • Travis Kelce, $7,300
  • Jaylen Waddle, $6,700
  • Amari Cooper, $6,600
  • Rashaad Penny, $6,100
  • Brandin Cooks, $6,000

As always, here's a single-entry GPP lineup I've already built out:

  • Dak Prescott, $6,700
  • Sony Michel, $5,800
  • Darrel Williams, $5,800
  • CeeDee Lamb, $7,100
  • Jaylen Waddle, $6,700
  • Antonio Brown, $6,100
  • C.J. Uzomah, $3,300
  • Zach Ertz, $5,200
  • Bears DST, $3,200