The season is more than a quarter gone and the NFL schedule has already produced plenty of unexpected results. As we enter the remaining NFL games in Week 6, bettors will be challenged by a variety of tight NFL lines. There are six games scheduled for Sunday and Monday featuring NFL spreads of a field goal or less, according to the latest Week 6 NFL odds, including Eagles at Vikings (-3) and 49ers at Rams (-3). In fact, there is only one remaining game in which a team is favored by more than seven, with the Ravens laying 11 points against Cincinnati at home. But which NFL picks should you target? Which close games should you fade? And which side of the Browns vs. Seahawks pick'em should you jump on? Before you make your NFL predictions, listen to the Week 6 NFL picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
This model, which simulates every snap 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 6 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 23-14 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an 85-57 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 5, it nailed the Rams (+1.5) staying within the spread against the Seahawks and the Texans (-4) covering with plenty of room to spare against the Falcons.
The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has examined the latest Week 6 NFL odds and lines, simulated every snap, and its football predictions are in. One of the top Week 6 NFL predictions the model recommends: the Chiefs (-4) cover against the Texans in a 1 p.m. ET kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs opened at 6.5-point favorites before money began to pour in on the Texans. However, SportsLine's model predicts that last week's loss as 11-point favorites to the Colts was an aberration by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense.
Until last week, the Chiefs had managed at least 26 points in every one of Mahomes' 21 career starts. Even with Houston coming off a 53-point outburst against the Falcons a week ago, the Texans' defense hasn't looked the same without Jadeveon Clowney. In fact, the Texans are 20th in total defense and 25th in passing defense. The model is predicting another 300-plus yard passing day from Mahomes as Kansas City covers in well over half of simulations. However, Kansas City's defense stands tall enough for the under (55) to hit in over 60 percent of simulations.
Another one of the Week 6 NFL predictions from the model: the Ravens (-11) cover one of the largest NFL spreads we've seen all season against the Bengals.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson made his first NFL start against the Bengals last season, taking over for Joe Flacco in a 24-21 victory. Jackson has been at the helm ever since for Baltimore, which dealt Flacco to the Broncos in the offseason. The Ravens face a Bengals team that is 31st against the run and already allowed Cardinals rookie quarterback Kyler Murray to scramble for 93 yards. Andy Dalton has thrown for 1,412 yards and seven scores for Cincinnati, which is on a eight-game road losing streak.
The model projects the Ravens, who have a strong point differential of plus-7.6 this season, to cover the spread in over 50 percent of simulations. The over (48) also hits in well over 60 percent of simulations.
The model also has also made the call on the huge Rams vs. 49ers showdown and says a Super Bowl contender goes down hard this week. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 6? And which Super Bowl contender gets stunned? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up almost $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-11, 48)
Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (PK, 46.5)
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 55)
New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 43)
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 44)
Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins (+3.5, 42)
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3, 50.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5, 51.5)
Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets (+7, 44.5)
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-1.5, 40.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 41.5)
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-4, 45)