Thursday night didn't feature the most explosive performance from Kirk Cousins and the Vikings passing offense, but Minnesota didn't need to bomb up huge numbers to stay ahead of the Redskins at home in prime time. Still, the performance by Cousins managed to give him a nice little start to the season that compares favorably to ....... Patrick Mahomes?

Yup, that's right. With Cousins eighth game now in the books, we are capable of looking to see how his start matches up with last year's MVP winner. And, via NFL Research, it's disturbingly similar. 


Comp %Yards/AttTD-INT RatioPasser Rating

2018 Mahomes

65.6

8.9

4.33

115.3

2019 Cousins

72.1

9.3

4.33

115.2

So, uh, you can make the case that Cousins is actually better based on these rate stats? I think so. Volume wise, Mahomes had him by a significant margin. Mahomes threw for 2,526 passing yards (Cousins has 1,997) and 26 touchdowns (Cousins has 13). Mahomes also had 70 more passing attempts, which is the result of playing on a high-flying offense that doesn't heavily feature Dalvin Cook and playing with a questionable defense that isn't the 2019 Vikings. 

I'm not trying to bang the table with a Cousins for MVP chant, although this time next week he will certainly be in my top five when we submit our ballots. I am interested in how we develop narratives in the NFL, though. Mahomes was new, cool, shiny and making no-look passes. He was obviously the MVP as the Chiefs surged to 7-1. Cousins has a predetermined fate. He's overpaid, he isn't clutch in big games, he's terrible at grilling steaks and he's not a worthy MVP candidate. 

Even Vegas agrees. Cousins was 300-1 to win MVP at the Westgate heading into Week 7. 300-1! Thursday night wasn't a shellacking of the Redskins and Cousins didn't post video game revenge numbers. That's the biggest difference here. Mahomes would have unnecessarily thrown for 350 yards and a couple of touchdowns. Mike Zimmer wanted to strangle the Redskins and get out of town. 

There are MVP caliber matchups looming, though. The Vikings play the Chiefs (Week 9), Cowboys (Week 10, SNF) and Seahawks (Week 13, MNF) in some high-profile games over the next month plus. Maybe Cousins melts down under the bright lights. But if he doesn't, and the Vikings win most of their remaining games, he is absolutely deserving of MVP chatter. 

To the picks! 

Last week I got greedy. I decided to try and take four teams AND four totals and it cost me. Also costly? Taking the Jets like a moron. It turns out, the Patriots are very good and the Jets might not be. The Pats might even be a historically great defense when it's all said and done.

But we're not messing with the Pats this week. They're "only" -13 at home against the Browns, but how long can they can keep covering these monster numbers? Instead, we're going to dive on a bunch of dogs. It feels like a very barkable weekend for the NFL, with a lot of large lines being put out there a week after a ton of favorites covered. 

As R.J. White covered here, there might be another angle to examine for this week and moving forward in terms of taking home and road teams off a bye against the spread. Also, while I'm linking content, check out Tom Fornelli's "Six Pack" for college picks. It feels like a 6-0 week for Tom. Gut feeling.

We also covered every single game against the spread, including leans and a parlay, on the Pick Sick Podcast (daily, eight shows a week, subscribe right here!) with R.J. and Pete Prisco. Listen in the player below while you peruse the picks.

Lions (-6.5) vs. Giants

My biggest concern here is the Lions finally hitting a wall after losing a tough one to the Packers and then getting in a shootout with the Vikings, only to have that followed by a trade of Quandre Diggs to the Seahawks. The Diggs trade seemingly hit everyone harder than everything else. If the Lions are ready to go, they should FEAST in this matchup. Matthew Stafford could go enormous against a Giants secondary that ranks as a bottom five pass defense. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones could have big days as well. Can the Lions stop Daniel Jones? I think so??? Saquon Barkley might be the problem here. This could be a shootout -- when the Lions are touchdown-plus favorites at home since 2011, they're 12-5 to the over. Detroit is one of four teams that hasn't been favored at home this year and now they're giving a touchdown; that's a little weird. This is a team that beats up on bad teams, though, and the Giants are a bad team. I think the Lions can steamroll them.

So which teams should you back in Week 7 of the 2019 NFL season? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams win and cover every single game, all from the model that has returned almost $7,000 on its top-rated picks.

Bucs (+2.5) at Titans

Love this game and love this spot for the Buccaneers. Everyone is going to be fading Tampa because the last thing we saw from them was a disastrous "prime time" early morning performance against the Panthers in London. The Titans just won after replacing Marcus Mariota with Ryan Tannehill and were competent offensively. But the Titans still have the same play-calling setup and they're going to try and pound the ball with Derrick Henry. It won't work as well against the Bucs, who are rested and stout against the run. The Titans are 0-2-1 against the spread as a home favorite -- most of their games have been coming back with people overreacting to a win. Tampa is 2-1 against the spread as a road dog this year. Everyone expects a disaster game from Jameis Winston but the Titans aren't good against the pass and you can bet Winston will be looking to go huge in the Winston-Mariota Bowl. Bucs win outright and easily.

Bears (-4) vs. Chargers

This line moving towards the Chargers is concerning, but I'm still backing the Bears here. EVERYONE thinks this is the week the Chargers turn it around. Everyone. They're due after barely losing to the Titans. Mitchell Trubisky was awful in Week 7 and he won't be able to throw the ball down the field against the Chargers. Except, well, he can. I think this is a Trubisky Goes Off Out of Nowhere week. Amid all the skepticism and criticism, Trubisky hits Allen Robinson for two touchdowns early in this game and then David Montgomery salts the game away with a bunch of big runs. Everyone will be confused, but the Chargers defense is just bad. They're 28th in pass DVOA and 24th in run DVOA. The Chargers "only" give up 216 passing yards per game (fifth best in the league) but they give up 8.7 yards per pass attempt (fourth worst in the league). They're bad against the run, giving up 4.2 yards per rush and 117.1 yards per game. What's scary is they haven't played any good offenses: the Colts are the only top-10 offense by DVOA they've played this year. Offensively, Philip Rivers will get heavily pressured here with his offensive line banged up. I wouldn't be shocked if they got back in the game late by abandoning Melvin Gordon and going to Austin Ekeler but the only way they win this game is by reverting the offense back to what it was the first few weeks of the year. 

Cardinals (+10.5) at Saints

This makes me more nervous than any of the other games on the slate, because of how well New Orleans has played. It's been almost 30 games (!) since the Saints allowed a 100-yard rusher. The Saints throttled the Bears last week, the game shouldn't have even been as "close" as it was but Matt Nagy kept trying for garbage time points. I look at this matchup as a little bit closer to the Tampa Bay game three weeks ago in New Orleans. There's an offense here with Arizona that can actually put up some points and I think -- I think! -- they might be able to run the ball effectively. Did you know Arizona has the third-ranked rushing offense by DVOA? Kliff Kingsbury's offense is clicking right now, and they can spread you out and run the ball with four wide receivers. I can't say for sure it will work against the Saints, but I think it will be better than people believe. Arizona's defense is not great but they get pressure on the quarterback. I also think this line incorrectly steamed with the news that Drew Brees wants to play. He's forcing it if he gets out there and I'm happier if he plays over Teddy Bridgewater. Kyler Murray can take us through the backdoor worst case.

Raiders (+6.5) at Texans

Here I am, backing the Raiders for the second week in the row on the road as less than a touchdown underdog to a team that is probably going to the playoffs. THIS IS FINE. I actually think if you watch the Packers game from last week, you see an Oakland team that was on the verge of being right in that matchup with Green Bay. They couldn't close or even keep it competitively, obviously, but Derek Carr was roughly two plays away from keeping it a one-score matchup. Houston's defense isn't nearly as good as the Packers and I think we'll see the Raiders match Deshaun Watson in terms of points scored. In fact, I actually think the Raiders stun the world and win this game outright. It probably comes down to who has the ball last though. Tyrell Williams back for Oakland would be massive. The spread just shouldn't be this big.

Panthers (+5.5) at 49ers

Love love love this game for Carolina. I'm a little nervous that everyone likes the Panthers catching the points off their bye -- it was the only true consensus on the picks pod this week. All three of us have Carolina covering and winning outright. I just believe the Panthers match up well against the 49ers. Their short, satellite weapons -- Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel -- can give Kyle Allen quick looks in and around the line of scrimmage to help mitigate the pressure coming from Robert Saleh's defensive line. The 49ers offense is good but the Panthers defense is elite. They can get pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo and prevent him from getting comfortable in the pocket. This game might definitely be a case of who gets a lead first -- I like Carolina on the road on its bye to come out scorching and then run CMC aggressively and force the 49ers to become one dimensional. 

Season Record

Week 6 best bets ATS record: 4-4, -0u
2019 best bets ATS record: 26-16-2, +10u

D&D/Pick Six Parlay of the Week

We're going to get one of these dammit! This week, having gone 0-fer on the season so far, it's time to throttle back and just pick three teams. That was legitimately all we could come to a consensus with as well, so that works out pretty nicely. Perhaps you prefer visual form? (This is a way for me to say follow the Pick Six Podcast on Twitter and Instagram!)

Panthers +5.5
Raiders-Texans Over 51.5
Browns-Patriots Under 45.5

.25u to win 1.5u

Season record: 0/7, -1.5u

Underdog Moneyline Parlay of the Week

Same deal as above. It's time to simplify things and just get a W here. No need to keep hemorrhaging units in the name of a big pay day. So with that in mind, we're just doing two games. It's an NFC South underdog special that doesn't involve the Falcons. As noted above, I believe both of these teams will win outright and I think they provide good value on the moneyline in addition to the number. If you're dying to get a three-team parlay, I would say to include the Raiders (+260) or Broncos (+190) as a payout boost. I went 2/3 on this last week and I don't want to force something in I'm not as confident in. Let's just hit a two-teamer and call it a day. 

Panthers (+200)
Buccaneers (+120)

.5u to win 2.8u

Season record: 0/7, -1.75u