jalen-hurts-eagles-usatsi-4.jpg
USATSI

The Philadelphia Eagles won 10 of their first 11 games in 2023 before they imploded, losing five of their final six regular-season contests before being trounced 38-9 by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wild-card round. The club made the necessary changes last year, however, as it won 12 of its last 13 games after splitting the first four and went on to the second Super Bowl championship in franchise history.

Philadelphia has sandwiched 14-win seasons around the 11-win campaign two years ago, setting the team record in 2022 and matching it last campaign. But it finished even with the Minnesota Vikings for the second-most victories in the NFC in 2024, one behind the Detroit Lions.

Five other NFC teams reached double figures in wins last season, with one - the Seattle Seahawks (10) - missing the playoffs. In 2023, a total of only five clubs posted 10 or more victories, three of which tied for the conference lead with 12 apiece.

The Los Angeles Rams have been the NFC team that has hit double digits in wins most consistently of late. Since Sean McVay took over as head coach in 2017, the Rams have won at least 10 games in six of his eight seasons. According to the SportsLine Projection Model, they will fall short of reaching the mark in 2025, but the Eagles will continue to rack up victories.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, already has crunched the numbers on the 2025 season. The model has projections on each team's win total and chances to win the division, the NFC and the Super Bowl. And based on the odds being offered at sportsbooks, there is value to be had.

NFC win total projections and best odds

NFCProj. WinsBest Market Odds
Philadelphia Eagles11.411.5 (Over -110/Under -110, DraftKings)
Green Bay Packers10.69.5 (Over +100/Under -120, Caesars)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers10.39.5 (Over +100/Under -120, Caesars)
Detroit Lions10.210.5 (Over -110/Under -110, DraftKings, BetMGM)
Washington Commanders9.59.5 (Over +100/Under -120, FanDuel)
Minnesota Vikings9.58.5 (Over -120/Under +100, FanDuel)
Los Angeles Rams9.29.5 (Over -145/Under +120, DraftKings)
San Francisco 49ers9.210.5 (Over +110/Under -130, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM)
Seattle Seahawks8.57.5 (Over -130/Under +110, FanDuel)
Arizona Cardinals8.48.5 (Over -110/Under -110 FanDuel)
Dallas Cowboys8.27.5 (Over -130/Under +110, Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM)
Chicago Bears7.78.5 (Over -120/Under +100, Caesars)
New Orleans Saints7.65.5 (Over -110/Under -110, FanDuel)
Atlanta Falcons7.27.5 (Over -120/Under +100, DraftKings)
Carolina Panthers5.36.5 (Over -110/Under -110, BetMGM)
New York Giants5.05.5 (Over -105/Under -115, Caesars)

The model sees Philadelphia, Detroit, Tampa Bay and the Green Bay Packers reaching double digits again this season, with the Lions finishing with nearly five fewer wins than they recorded last year. Detroit shared the NFL lead with 15 wins in 2024, so the -4.8 difference is the biggest drop in the NFC. The model projects the San Francisco 49ers will increase their win total from six in 2024 to 9.2 this season, the highest increase in the conference. And even though it sees them finishing with the fewest amount of wins in the NFC, the model has the New York Giants posting two more than the three they posted last year.

Now we'll take a closer look at the model's top three win total plays for the 2025 NFL season.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 9.5 (+100, Caesars)

  • Win total model projection: 10.3

The Buccaneers won their fourth consecutive NFC South title last season, going 10-7 to reach double figures in wins for the third time in five years - and first in that span without the legendary Tom Brady at quarterback. While he certainly isn't in Brady's league, Baker Mayfield proved to be more than competent as a replacement.

Selected by the Cleveland Browns with the first overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, Mayfield appears to have found a home in Tampa Bay after brief stints with the Panthers and Rams. The 30-year-old set career highs in his second year with the Buccaneers in 2024, finishing third in the league with 4,500 passing yards and tying for second with 41 touchdown tosses.

Mayfield has a top-notch pair of receivers to target in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Both wideouts missed time last season due to injuries, but the 31-year-old Evans still managed to reach the 1,000-yard plateau for the 11th consecutive year, matching Jerry Rice's NFL record by amassing 1,004 receiving yards.

Tampa Bay added another option for Mayfield in this year's draft as it selected Emeka Egbuka from Ohio State with the 19th overall pick. That receiving trio and running back Bucky Irving, who rushed for 1,122 yards as a rookie in 2024, give new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard a strong core with which to work.

The Bucs reside in the weakest division in the conference and, despite winning the NFC South crown last year, have what's considered to be one of the easier schedules in the league in 2025. In addition to two games apiece against the Falcons, Saints and Panthers -- all of whom finished under .500 last season -- Tampa Bay has six opponents that failed to make the playoffs in 2024, including two that recorded fewer than six wins.

Taking all of this into account, the model believes the Bucs will have another successful regular season in 2025, making this prop at Caesars Sportsbook an appealing one.

2. Dallas Cowboys Over 7.5 (-130, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars)

  • Win total model projection: 8.2

Some might say the reason for Dallas' disappointing 2024 season was that Dak Prescott missed the second half of the campaign with a hamstring injury. The Cowboys went 4-5 in Prescott's absence, but they weren't very good with him either, winning just three of their first eight games.

The offense wasn't the reason Dallas went 7-10 after posting three consecutive 12-5 seasons and winning the NFC East twice in that span. The Cowboys ranked 28th in total defense, 29th against the run and 31st in points allowed. Head coach Mike McCarthy paid the price as owner Jerry Jones bid him adieu and handed the reins to Brian Schottenheimer, who was the team's offensive coordinator the last two years.

Dallas made some changes defensively, allowing defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence and cornerback Jourdan Lewis to leave as free agents and replacing them with edge rusher Donovan Ezeiruaku and cornerback Shavon Revel Jr. in this year's draft. The Cowboys also added a strong complement to CeeDee Lamb by acquiring wideout George Pickens from the Pittsburgh Steelers in a trade.

Even though they face both the Eagles and Commanders twice, the Cowboys do have two games on their 2025 schedule against the Giants, who have recorded a total of nine wins over the last two seasons. In addition to Philadelphia and Washington, six other teams that made the playoffs last year are on the slate. But Dallas also has four contests against clubs that won fewer than six games.

With that in mind, the Cowboys have a strong chance to post at least eight victories, and the model agrees, making this play at DraftKings, BetMGM and Caesars attractive. 

3. Chicago Bears Under 8.5 (+100, Caesars)

  • Win total model projection: 7.7

Many believe the Bears will improve substantially in 2025 after a 5-12 season during which they lost 10 consecutive games before edging the Packers 24-22 in their finale. They received strong grades for their draft last month and have added some quality players via free agency to help make Ben Johnson's first year as an NFL head coach a successful one.

However, Chicago will need to see improvement from quarterback Caleb Williams, who was the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Williams threw only six interceptions as a rookie, the same amount as league MVP Josh Allen, but he was tied for 15th with only 20 touchdown passes and ranked 17th with 3,541 passing yards.

Part of the reason for Williams' mediocre showing was the lack of protection he received. He was sacked a league-high 68 times, prompting the Bears to shore up the offensive line with the additions of center Drew Dalman and guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson. They also drafted tackle Ozzy Trapilo from Boston College in the second round.

Williams has a quality receiving corps at his disposal, with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and 2025 second-round pick Luther Burden III leading the way, and Chicago has five games on its 2025 schedule against teams that finished with six wins or fewer last year. But it also has two meetings apiece with the Lions (15 wins), Vikings (14) and Packers (11), as well as contests against the Super Bowl champion Eagles, the Commanders (12 wins), the Baltimore Ravens (12) and the Steelers (10) - all of whom made the playoffs in 2024.

The model agrees that the Bears will finish with more wins than the five they posted last season but doesn't see them improving as much as some pundits think, making this play at Caesars one to consider.