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The 2025-26 College Football Playoff moves into the semifinal round with the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday, Jan. 8, and the Peach Bowl on Friday, Jan. 9. The winner of Thursday's Miami vs. Ole Miss game will face the winner of Friday's Oregon vs. Indiana game in the National Championship, which will take place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on Monday, Jan. 19.

Here's a look at everything sports fans and bettors need to know ahead of Miami vs. Ole Miss and Oregon vs. Indiana, including the latest odds from top sportsbooks and predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times.

Miami vs. Ole Miss, Fiesta Bowl

The Hurricanes, who made the playoff under questionable circumstances, are one win away from playing for a national championship on their home field. Miami took advantage of its opportunities against the defending champions Ohio State Buckeyes in the second round, racking up 153 yards on the ground and building an early 14-0 lead thanks to a pick-6 from Keionte Scott. Even though Jeremiah Smith went wild, Miami limited Ohio State's other playmakers and ultimately was able to secure a late touchdown in a 24-14 win. Carson Beck didn't have to do much across either of the first two games, and Miami's defense has held serve but that's likely to change a bit on Thursday.

Ole Miss is flying high after winning its first two playoff games after Lane Kiffin's messy departure from the program. New head coach Pete Golding is operating a tight ship and the players have clearly bought into winning this title for themselves. Trinidad Chambliss is one of the best college football stories of the year, and the Rebels are showing they can tune out the noise and take care of business on the field. Chambliss can make plays happen with his legs and while the Hurricanes bottled up Texas A&M's Marcel Reed in the first round, Chambliss is much more lethal through the air, and that will need to be respected. Ole Miss' defense has been suspect, but Beck hasn't been asked to air the ball out as much this season. Can Miami's receivers, outside of star Malachi Torley, take advantage of a Rebels secondary which has a tendency to be overly aggressive?

Miami is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Miami vs. Ole Miss SportsLine consensus odds and the total comes in at 51.5. The Rebels cover in 55% of model simulations and win in 47% to offer value as +147 money line underdogs. The Over on 51.5 hits in 59% of simulations.

Oregon vs. Indiana, Peach Bowl

Neither program has won a national title, though the Ducks have played for one recently in 2011 and 2015. Oregon enters this game after easing past James Madison and thrashing a Texas Tech team many felt was a darkhorse pick to win the championship. Dan Lanning's crew has been excellent on both sides of the ball and will have revenge on its mind after losing at home to Indiana 30-20 during the regular season. The Hoosiers are coming off an clinical 38-3 demolition of Alabama, which has Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza looking like the clear No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft and Curt Cignetti being dubbed the next Nick Saban. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, who is also likely to declare for the draft, had a rough game against Indiana in the first matchup with two interceptions. If he's better this time around, the Ducks will have a chance of keeping up with the Hoosiers.

It's hard to find many flaws with Indiana. Cignetti's transfers have largely hit, especially Mendoza. The ground game was on fire against Alabama and Oregon is much better at defending the pass than the run. The Ducks managed to limit Indiana's efficiency on the ground in the first game but the Hoosiers eventually wore down Oregon's front. That cannot happen again if the Ducks want to pull off the upset, and that requires the offense holding up its end of the bargain. Oregon had its worst yardage output of the year against Indiana in that regular season game.

The Hoosiers are four-point favorites in the latest Oregon vs. Indiana SportsLine consensus odds and the total sits at 46.5. The model backs Oregon to cover the spread in 56% of simulations and believes the Ducks offer value as +156 money line underdogs as they win in in 45% of simulations. The Under on 46.5 hits in 54% of simulations, though these teams did combine for 50 in the first meeting.

CFP national championship odds

Indiana is the +130 favorite to win the title at DraftKings Sportsbook, followed by Miami (+310), Oregon (+320) and Ole Miss (+600). The Hoosiers are 5.5-point favorites on the lookahead line against Miami and 8.5-point favorites on the lookahead line against Ole Miss. Should Oregon beat Indiana, the Ducks are 1.5-point lookahead favorites against Miami and 4.5-point favorites against Ole Miss.