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The reigning national champs are back in action on New Year's Eve as the Ohio State Buckeyes face the Miami Hurricanes in the Cotton Bowl. This is a quarterfinal matchup in the College Football Playoff, and the winner here will take on the winner of Ole Miss vs. Georgia in the CFP semifinal. The Buckeyes won it all last year after entering the field as an at-large team, and their only blemish this year was a narrow loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Hurricanes snuck into the 12-team field this year despite a rocky end to the season, and they were able to knock off Texas A&M in a low-scoring 10-3 affair in the opening round. 

Kickoff from AT&T Stadium is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on New Year's Eve. The Buckeyes are 9.5-point favorites in the latest SportsLine consensus Miami vs. Ohio State odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 40.5. Ohio State is a -357 money line favorite (bet $357 to win $100), while the Hurricanes are +283 underdogs (wager $100 to win $283). Before you make any Miami vs. Ohio State picks of your own, make sure you see the top college football picks from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every college football game 10,000 times.

Where to watch Miami vs. Ohio State on Wednesday

When: Wednesday, Dec. 31
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Stream: Fubo  
Follow along: CBS Sports App

Miami vs. Ohio State betting preview

Odds: Ohio State -9.5, Over/Under 40.5

The Buckeyes are often known for their great offenses, which is still the case this year with quarterback Julian Sayin throwing to the elite receiver duo that is Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, but arguably the story of Ohio State's 2025 campaign has been the team's defense under Matt Patricia, a longtime NFL defensive coordinator. In addition to averaging 34.9 points per game offensively, the Buckeyes allow just 8.2 points per game on defense and only 213.5 yards per game. The most points OSU has allowed this year was 16, and its defense allowed double digits only five times in 13 games so far this year. 

That's a tall task for a Miami offense that has been inconsistent down the stretch and mustered just 10 points against a Texas A&M defense that had been susceptible to shootouts throughout the regular season. The Hurricanes did rebound after dropping two of three games midway through the season to Louisville and SMU, but the team's offensive output at Texas A&M is certainly worth noting given just how good the Buckeyes' defense has been in 2025.

Ohio State is 12-1 overall this year and has also been fantastic against the spread at 10-3, which is notable given how many massive spreads the team has had this season. Miami is 11-2 straight up and 8-5 ATS. Both teams have leaned towards the Under this year, with the Hurricanes 5-8 to the Over while the Buckeyes are just 4-9 to the Over in 2025. The Hurricanes' defense has some elite playmakers, such as edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr., who can disrupt any offense and keep scores low. That was certainly the case in the first round against an Aggies offense that normally can move the ball up and down the field at will. At 40.5 in the consensus odds, this matchup has far and away the lowest total of the quarterfinal CFP slate. 

Model's Miami vs. Ohio State score prediction, picks

The Buckeyes win outright in nearly 70% of the SportsLine Projection Model's 10,000 simulations, though the model sees more value in backing the Hurricanes, who win in 31% of simulations at plus money and cover more than 50% of the time. The model also likes Over 40.5 despite each team leaning towards the Under this year, as it thinks the Hurricanes will put together a better offensive showing than they did against the Aggies. Three of Miami's last five games have finished Under the total, while four of OSU's last five failed to clear the total.

Miami vs. Ohio State score prediction: Ohio State 29, Miami 19

Want more college football picks?

You've seen the model's best bets for Miami vs. Ohio State. Now, get against the spread, total and money-line picks for every College Football playoff and bowl matchup here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times.