College football picks, odds for SEC in Week 15: Florida rolls past LSU, Alabama takes care of Arkansas
SEC Smothered and Covered breaks down the SEC and makes picks straight up and against the spread
•
6 min read
This is normally the weekend of the Heisman Trophy ceremony and the beginning of the buildup to the College Football Playoff. Instead, the SEC is wrapping up its regular season and gearing up for next weekend's SEC Championship Game between Alabama and Florida. We do have some business to take care of before the Crimson Tide and Gators square off at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, however.
Alabama has a sneaky tough game against an Arkansas team that has turned the corner under first-year coach Sam Pittman. Florida hosts a reeling LSU team in a cross-division rivalry showdown. It'll be a big weekend for the quarterbacks of each team as well. Mac Jones and Kyle Trask, respectively, are high atop most people's Heisman rankings, and could keep momentum going with strong performances on Saturday.
Let's take a spin around the conference and make picks for all of Saturday's games on the SEC schedule in Week 15.
Appetizer: Georgia looking to the future
Georgia's game versus Missouri in Columbia doesn't exactly stand out as one of the top games of the weekend. But it is big for the future of the Bulldogs. Quarterback JT Daniels has two solid games under his belt and got an impromptu bye week to build off of his first action in 14 months.
Daniels can set the tone for what to expect from next year's Bulldogs, who should be one of the top contenders for a College Football Playoff berth in 2021. The world didn't get to see what offensive coordinator Todd Monken is capable of since Jamie Newman opted out before the season and Stetson Bennett and D'Wan Mathis were ineffective under center. Now you see it. Daniels is averaging 10 yards per passing attempt. That's a far cry from the 7.6 and 3.0 yards per attempt that Bennett and Mathis were averaging, respectively. The success under Daniels has helped the Bulldogs average 6.7 yards per play against Mississippi State and 7.6 yards per play against South Carolina -- their top two performances of the season.
The core of this team should be back next season, especially since the NCAA approved the blanket waiver that gives everybody a free year of eligibility this season. Zamir White, James Cook, Kendall Milton and Kenny McIntosh will comprise one of the most dangerous backfields in the country, sophomore wide receiver George Pickens will be back for his third season and the entire offense will be more comfortable with the new-look approach even if COVID-19 creates disruptions after the season.
Georgia will be fine. This wasn't a rebuilding year -- this was a retooling year. Saturday's game against the Tigers will give us another glimpse of the how far along the construction project is.
Main course: Comparing the QB contenders
It seems like lines have been drawn in the Heisman Trophy debate between Jones and Trask. On one side, there's the obvious fact that Jones has more weapons than Trask (or any other quarterback in the country, for that matter). On the other, there's knock against Trask that despite the record-setting pace, a loss against Texas A&M is on his resume (even though he isn't the one to blame for it).
Let's break down the numbers.
| Players | Comp. % | YPG | TD | YPA | Rating | Comp. % on third-and-7 or more yards | Comp. % on passes traveling 20+ air yards | Comp. % under pressure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mac Jones | 75.7 | 345.9 | 27 | 12.2 | 345.9 | 73.9 | 57.8 | 52.2 |
Kyle Trask | 71.4 | 360.3 | 38 | 10.1 | 360.3 | 68.9 | 59.1 | 59.7 |
Let's be honest, when you're comparing Jones and Trask, you're basically comparing ice cream flavors or $50 steaks at a swanky steakhouse. You're going to be happy no matter who you choose, but I'll give Trask the edge as of right now. The impact he has made on his team -- which has fewer weapons (Kyle Pitts notwithstanding) -- has been the primary reason that the Gators are still in the CFP race.
Fortunately for all college football fans, we'll get to see Jones and Trask on the same field next weekend in the SEC Championship Game.
Desserts
- I know it can't happen ... but Texas A&M vs. Ohio State this weekend in a CFP elimination game would have been awesome!
- Auburn coach Gus Malzahn not only needs to beat Mississippi State this weekend but do it emphatically. He's already going to enter the offseason on one of the hottest seats in the country, so he desperately needs to give the fan base something ... anything ... to be confident in as quarterback Bo Nix prepares for his junior season.
- The SEC Championship Game will have a limited seating capacity, and is already sold out at 16,500.
- Did you know that Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral leads the SEC in passing plays of 50 or more yards with 10?
Picks for Week 15
No. 1 Alabama at Arkansas
I feel like a broken record here, but it's nearly impossible to pick Alabama games against the spread in dial-a-score games. With that said, I'm banking on the Razorbacks offense that we saw last week against Missouri to at least do enough to keep it within 30 points. That might be presumptuous due to the success Alabama's defense has enjoyed over the last month-plus, but I'm banking on the Hogs' offense doing enough to keep it closer than the oddsmakers suggest -- even if that means a backdoor cover. Pick: Arkansas (+32)
LSU at No. 6 Florida
The Tigers are a total wreck at this point. In addition to the dreadful attempt at defending the national title, its offense has imploded, its defense never showed up to the party and players are bailing on the program. Meanwhile, the Gators could use some style points in the race for a CFP berth. They'll get 'em on Saturday. Pick: Florida (-23.5)
No. 9 Georgia at No. 25 Missouri
Would this spread be so small if Missouri hadn't erupted on Arkansas last week? Not likely. The Tigers will have a much more difficult time this weekend against a Bulldogs defense that leads the SEC in defensive yards per play (4.98) and in total defense (338.1 YPG). Plus, Georgia's offense has found its stride over the last two games now that Daniels has taken over. Pick: Georgia (-13)
Auburn at Mississippi State
The Tigers are coming off of a disappointing loss to Texas A&M, but their defense is still talented and well-coached. Because of that, don't expect Mississippi State to have the same kind of success that it had against Georgia and LSU. It's true that quarterback Bo Nix is erratic (at best) on the road, but there won't be much of a home-field advantage for a Bulldogs team that has had two weeks to chew on the Egg Bowl loss to Ole Miss. Lay the points. Pick: Auburn (-6.5)
Tennessee at Vanderbilt
Hold up, stop. Tennessee, a team that is on a six-game losing streak, is a 15.5-point favorite over a team that will field 11 players on offense and another 11 on defense? That speaks volumes to just how bad Vanderbilt is this year. The Volunteers seem uninspired, but at least there's the intrigue surrounding freshman quarterback Harrison Bailey. Coach Jeremy Pruitt will give him all of the offense and let him rip vs. the 'Dores. He'll have enough success to put at least 16 points on the board. That'll be all he needs because, let's be real, Vandy's offense might put up negative points. Pick: Tennessee (-15.5)
Records: Straight up: 48-11 (4-1 last week) | ATS: 27-32 (2-3 last week)
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 15? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned over $3,500 in profit over the past four-plus seasons -- and find out.
