COLLEGE FOOTBALL: JAN 01 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl Oregon vs Texas Tech
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There are only three games remaining in the college football season, which is depressing enough as it is as a college football fan. The end of the season is always bittersweet because while we're all excited to crown a new national champion and watch the final playoff games, we know that what comes immediately after it is seven months without college football.

It's also depressing because we're down -2.59 units in the College Football Playoff through two rounds and only have three games left to get back on the positive side of the ledger! But we can. Perhaps having fewer games to focus on will lead to better results?

Fiesta Bowl

No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Miami: I want to start here with something that's worth watching in this game, and is something that does go slightly against what my pick for the game is. We have seen the turf be an issue at the Fiesta Bowl in recent years. I don't know the exact science behind it, but my theory is that something about it being winter and there being a full season's worth of NFL games that have been played on it leads to less-than-ideal conditions. You see players slipping on this sod like they're playing on skates, and that can lead to problems for everybody, particularly defenders.

Still, it's hard to handicap that accurately, so I'm attacking this game by focusing on how I feel it is most likely to play out. While Miami's upset win over Ohio State was the largest upset in playoff history according to the spread, I believe Ole Miss' win over Georgia was far more surprising. It was also more death-defying, as Trinidad Chambliss was pulling rabbits out of multiple hats while walking on a tightrope to deliver incredible plays in the second half of the Sugar Bowl. Is that performance repeatable? Probably not, but who knows? Maybe Chambliss is Johnny Manziel. Or maybe the Miami pass rush he'll be dealing with here is much better than the Georgia one he faced, and possibly better than any he's seen all year.

The difference is that Miami doesn't run as deep along its defensive line as some other elite units. The Canes have their four guys they count on for most downs, and I can't blame them for it. Ole Miss will look to counter this by upping their tempo on offense and wearing them down. It's a sensible strategy, and one Miami is well aware of. The Rebels won't be the first team to try it. So I expect Miami will look to control the clock on offense and put together long drives to protect its defense and keep it fresh.

And I believe Miami will be successful doing so. The Ole Miss defense isn't bad, but it's the worst of the four remaining teams. Despite their wins, it's a unit that has struggled in two playoff games as well. Tulane did not score against them, but it did move the ball well, particularly on the ground. Georgia ran the ball effectively as well before Nate Frazier got dinged up.

Look for Miami to lean on Mark Fletcher Jr. and the run game, and go with shorter passes to Malachi Toney and others as an extension of the run game. They'll take the explosives as they come, but they won't hunt them. It'll be far more about controlling the clock, putting together long drives, and shortening this game. The Pick: Under 51.5 (-105) at FanDuel

Peach Bowl

No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 5 Oregon: We have seen this game before, as Indiana went on the road to Autzen Stadium and beat the Ducks 30-20 earlier this season. That first game is important both for what we learned watching it and what both teams may have learned while playing it.

Indiana sacked Dante Moore six times in the game. For perspective, Moore has been sacked nine times total in Oregon's other 13 games. In short, the Indiana front did to Moore and the Ducks what it has done to so many other opponents. It overwhelmed and confused the Ducks' offensive line and quarterback, leading to chaos after the snap. Well, how confusing will it be now that Oregon has seen it? Oregon's ability to learn from its mistakes in the first meeting will be one of the biggest factors in this game, as will Indiana's ability to find new ways to confound the Ducks even further.

What Moore's performance in that first meeting has overshadowed a bit is that Indiana's Fernando Mendoza wasn't exactly incredible himself. He threw a pick-6 that tied the game at 20-20 late, and his final passer efficiency of 127.0 in the game was his second-worst this season (ahead of only Old Dominion in the opener, which is pretty funny in retrospect, but also understandable, seeing as how it was his first start with a new team). I know Oregon's defense was incredible last week, but that was due to the opponent as much as anything. Texas Tech's offense hasn't been good all year if you take away explosives. Indiana hits them with high frequency, but isn't reliant on them. They're just as happy churning, as their 52.9% success rate on offense (the nation's best mark) will testify.

I'm not nearly as confident in the Oregon offense. The best defenses the Ducks have faced this season are Indiana, Iowa, Penn State and Texas Tech. In those four games, we have seen the Ducks average only 1.82 points per drive with a success rate of 41.0%, an average EPA per snap of -0.10 (yep, negative) and an explosive play rate of 7.9%.

Their season-long numbers are 3.15 points per drive, 47.7% success rate, an average EPA of 0.19 and an explosive play rate of 15.0%. In other words, their performance against top defenses has nose-dived. It's very possible that the fact this is a second chance will help the Ducks crack the code and break through, but based on what I've seen all year long, I'm not sure it's the most likely outcome. After all, if you remove defensive scores from those four games, as well as overtime against Penn State, the Ducks' offense averaged only 17.25 points per game in regulation. The Pick: Oregon Team Total Under 20.5 (-105) at DraftKings

College Football PlayoffRecordUnits

First Round

1-3

-2.29

Quarterfinals

2-2

-0.30

Overall

3-5

-2.59

Who will win and cover in each college football bowl and playoff game? SportsLine's computer model just simulated each matchup 10,000 times and has revealed its picks. Visit SportsLine now to see all its college football picks.