Could Curt Cignetti draw NFL attention? Las Vegas, with Fernando Mendoza, is a hypothetical fit

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The Las Vegas Raiders fired coach Pete Carroll after a disastrous 3-14 first season this week. Owner Mark Davis kept general manager John Spytek on board, and he and minority owner Tom Brady are expected to lead football operations in the search for the team's next coach.

With the Raiders locked in for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, there's a chance for Las Vegas to take Heisman Trophy winning QB Fernando Mendoza out of Indiana. It would also present an interesting consideration in the search for a coach.

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Las Vegas needs a culture change. Would it consider bringing in college football's ruler of the roost -- Indiana coach Curt Cignetti, to pair with his QB? The Raiders will be on their sixth head coach since 2021 and have only made the playoffs once over the last eight years -- so yes, there's nowhere to go but up after a series of failed front-office decisions.

The 64-year-old Cignetti -- 10 years younger than Carroll -- has never worked in the NFL and has only two seasons of experience leading a program at the Power conference level. However, his stock's never going to be higher than it is in this very moment with the Hoosiers one win away from reaching the national championship game for the first time in school history.

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His name has not been tied to any of the NFL's current vacancies, which include the Tennessee Titans, New York Giants, Cleveland Browns and Raiders, as of Monday morning. Looking at the current list of potential head-coaching hires this cycles who aren't retreads further, Cignetti would be just as much a calculated risk as many others without head-coaching experience with a longer career resume and pattern of winning.

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At Indiana, where he's 25-2 overall, Cignetti has done it his way through player development and talent acquisition, running off 14 straight wins for the nation's unbeaten and top-ranked team with a roster rated outside of the top-70 nationally, per the 247Sports Team Talent Composite.

Cignetti's on an 8-year contract with an annual $11.6 million salary that runs through the end of the 2033 regular season at Indiana, but those figures are about to increase thanks to the Hoosiers' Rose Bowl win over Alabama triggering a "good market faith review" clause in his deal.

Indiana will be required to renegotiate his current deal to be greater than or equal to the nation's third highest-paid coach (around $13 million) and if not, Cignetti's current buyout of $15 million is negated if he takes another job in 2026.

Would Cignetti make the NFL jump?

It's unlikely Cignetti would leave an elite program he has built at Indiana in short order for the unknown of the pro ranks, especially after acknowledging earlier this season his love for the program. And he's certainly not going to be interested in entertaining NFL opportunities -- should they arise -- amid the Hoosiers' final steps of the playoff this month.

After signing an extension in October with the Hoosiers after the Penn State job opened, Cignetti said he could see himself being at the Big Ten school for many, many years. Would that mindset shift if Indiana beats Oregon in the playoff semifinals then finishes the deal with a national title on Jan. 19 in Miami?

That's hard to say.

"We've accomplished a lot here in a short amount of time and still have a lot of work to do," Cignetti said earlier this season. "I couldn't be more proud to be a Hoosier and I plan on retiring as a Hooiser. The way this state has embraced us and our success in football has meant more to me than anything else, I just wanted to get on camera and let you know, Curt Cignetti is going to work daily to make Indiana they best they can be."

Cignetti, whose compensation rivals the highest-paid in college football, is not jumping to the NFL for a paycut and there would be risk involved with pushing that many resources in his direction from Raiders owner Mark Davis. He would also need to provide Cignetti with full control of team operations -- from personnel decisions to coaching hires -- to ensure a potential sale pitch would be convincing.

While its extent is unknown along with his influence on Davis outside of leading coaching search efforts, Brady's role within the organization is expected to increase this offseason. That's significant considering the Raiders are expected to use their top pick on a quarterback.

Ironically, Cignetti told CBS Sports earlier this season what impressed him most about Mendoza during his recruitment out the portal from California was his willingness to improve. He even name-dropped Brady, too.

"I've never been around a guy ... he wants to be great at a young age," Cignetti said. "He told his dad he wanted to be the next Tom Brady. If there were 25 hours in the day, he'd spend all 25 preparing to be great… he's a special guy."

The chance to draft his top player from the Hoosiers and build around him in Las Vegas could persuade Cignetti to toss his name in that, again, if there's mutual interest.

Recent history of college coaches who went pro

Steve Spurrier, Nick Saban, Chip Kelly and Matt Rhule all won big at the college level as culture-changers of sorts in varying degrees and quickly realized the leap to the NFL was not going to work. 

Spurrier became the NFL highest-paid coach at the time in 2001 with the Washington Redskins after a storied 12-year tenure at Florida, but resigned in 2003 after consecutive losing seasons.

Saban left LSU after winning a national championship for the Miami Dolphins in 2004, but later admitted he accepted a "no-win situation" after failing before assuming the lead role at Alabama a few years later.

Kelly banked off success at Oregon to join the NFL ranks in 2013 with the Philadelphia Eagles before his firing in December 2015 prior to his team's final regular-season game. His subsequent stint with the San Francisco 49ers didn't last either, along with his failed one season this fall as the Raiders' OC.

Rhule's story was similar. The Carolina Panthers thought he could reverse franchise fortunes ahead of the 2020 season after success at Temple and Baylor, but it didn't happen. He went 11-27 in Carolina, received a $40 million buyout, and is now at Nebraska.

Jim Harbaugh has made two successful jumps from the college to the NFL (with a jump from the NFL to college in between) and he belongs to a singular category of success all by himself. 

Cignetti's won everywhere he has been and is on the cusp of becoming one of only four active coaches in college football with a national championship ring with two more wins. He may not want to tarnish a legacy, that's only going to be heightened in the coming years of the NIL and revenue share-driven era with the Hoosiers, who are already off to a hot start in the 2026 transfer portal. 

If there's a time for Cignetti to jump, though, it may be on the heels of the best season in school history and with a chance to lead one of the NFL's marquee franchises, and with his hand-picked QB.