2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Top 150 rankings for Dynasty leagues, complete with value ratings

How do you weigh the long term vs. the short term?

Ranking players for dynasty leagues is ... complicated. Prospects need to factor in somehow, but how exactly depends on your league's keeper rules and your team's contention window.

In recent years, I've tried to simplify the process by using a rudimentary rating system. Specifically, I assign each player a score (1 being the lowest, 5 the highest) across three factors:

1. Present value: What a player is expected to be in 2022
   
2. Future value: What his peak looks like and how much peak he has left
   
3. Confidence rating: How confident I am in him meeting his present and future value

Then I add up each player's score, adjust for age and preference, and voila, rankings.  

It's imperfect -- and, yeah, to some degree the "confidence" rating is just a way of tweaking the scores to my liking -- but there is no perfect. This way at least makes it more fun to argue.

Top 150 for dynasty leagues

Rank	Player	Age (on 7/1)	Present	Future	Confidence
1	Fernando Tatis SD SS	23	5	5	5
2	Vladimir Guerrero TOR 1B	23	5	5	5
3	Juan Soto WAS RF	23	5	5	5
4	Ronald Acuna ATL RF	24	4	5	5
5	Bo Bichette TOR SS	24	5	5	4
6	Kyle Tucker HOU RF	25	5	5	4
7	Trea Turner LAD SS	29	5	3	5
8	Jose Ramirez CLE 3B	29	5	3	5
9	Shohei Ohtani LAA DH	27	5	5	3
10	Wander Franco TB SS	21	4	5	4
11	Luis Robert CHW CF	24	5	5	3
12	Walker Buehler LAD SP	27	5	4	4
13	Rafael Devers BOS 3B	25	4	5	4
14	Ozzie Albies ATL 2B	25	4	4	5
15	Bryce Harper PHI RF	29	5	3	4
16	Mike Trout LAA CF	30	5	3	4
17	Gerrit Cole NYY SP	31	5	3	4
18	Mookie Betts LAD RF	29	5	3	4
19	Corbin Burnes MIL SP	27	5	4	3
20	Brandon Woodruff MIL SP	29	5	3	4
21	Shane Bieber CLE SP	27	5	4	3
22	Julio Rodriguez SEA RF	21	2	5	5
23	Bobby Witt KC SS	22	3	5	4
24	Austin Riley ATL 3B	25	4	5	3
25	Julio Urias LAD SP	25	4	4	4
26	Manny Machado SD 3B	29	4	3	5
27	Matt Olson OAK 1B	28	4	4	4
28	Xander Bogaerts BOS SS	29	4	3	5
29	Sandy Alcantara MIA SP	26	4	5	3
30	Freddie Freeman ATL 1B	32	5	2	5
31	Lucas Giolito CHW SP	27	4	4	4
32	Pete Alonso NYM 1B	27	4	4	4
33	Yordan Alvarez HOU DH	25	4	4	3
34	Eloy Jimenez CHW LF	25	4	4	3
35	Adley Rutschman BAL C	24	2	5	4
36	Spencer Torkelson DET 3B	22	2	5	4
37	Cedric Mullins BAL CF	27	5	4	2
38	Corey Seager TEX SS	28	4	4	3
39	Aaron Nola PHI SP	29	4	3	4
40	Byron Buxton MIN CF	28	4	5	2
41	Max Fried ATL SP	28	4	3	4
42	Brandon Lowe TB 2B	27	4	4	3
43	Carlos Correa HOU SS	27	4	4	3
44	Alex Bregman HOU 3B	28	4	4	3
45	Freddy Peralta MIL SP	26	4	5	2
46	Jack Flaherty STL SP	26	4	4	2
47	Zack Wheeler PHI SP	32	5	2	3
48	Jarred Kelenic SEA CF	22	3	5	2
49	Riley Greene DET RF	21	2	5	3
50	Jose Berrios TOR SP	28	4	3	3
51	Aaron Judge NYY RF	30	4	3	3
52	Logan Webb SF SP	25	4	4	2
53	Anthony Volpe NYY SS	21	2	5	3
54	Alek Manoah TOR SP	24	3	5	2
55	Marco Luciano SF SS	20	1	5	4
56	Noelvi Marte SEA SS	20	1	5	4
57	C.J. Abrams SD SS	21	1	5	4
58	Shane McClanahan TB SP	25	3	5	2
59	Shane Baz TB SP	23	3	5	2
60	Grayson Rodriguez BAL RP	22	2	5	3
61	Salvador Perez KC C	32	5	2	3
62	Jose Altuve HOU 2B	32	4	3	3
63	George Springer TOR CF	32	4	2	4
64	Nolan Arenado STL 3B	31	4	3	3
65	Ketel Marte ARI CF	28	4	4	2
66	Bryan Reynolds PIT CF	27	4	4	2
67	Will Smith LAD C	27	4	4	2
68	Luis Castillo CIN SP	29	4	3	3
69	Francisco Lindor NYM SS	28	4	4	2
70	Tim Anderson CHW SS	29	4	3	3
71	Corbin Carroll ARI CF	21	2	5	3
72	Josh Jung TEX 3B	24	2	4	4
73	Triston Casas BOS 3B	22	2	4	4
74	Jacob deGrom NYM SP	34	5	2	2
75	Max Scherzer NYM SP	37	5	1	3
76	Robbie Ray SEA SP	30	4	3	2
77	Cody Bellinger LAD CF	26	3	5	1
78	Marcus Semien TEX 2B	31	5	2	2
79	Starling Marte NYM CF	33	4	1	4
80	Whit Merrifield KC 2B	33	4	1	4
81	Teoscar Hernandez TOR RF	29	4	3	2
82	Kevin Gausman TOR SP	31	4	3	2
83	Trevor Story COL SS	29	4	3	2
84	Frankie Montas OAK SP	29	4	3	2
85	Tyler O'Neill STL LF	27	4	4	1
86	Javier Baez DET 2B	29	4	3	2
87	J.T. Realmuto PHI C	31	4	2	3
88	Josh Hader MIL RP	28	4	3	2
89	Adalberto Mondesi KC 3B	26	3	5	1
90	Jonathan India CIN 2B	25	3	4	2
91	Nick Castellanos CIN RF	30	4	3	2
92	Joe Musgrove SD SP	29	4	3	2
93	Jorge Polanco MIN 2B	28	4	4	1
94	Randy Arozarena TB LF	27	3	4	2
95	Willy Adames MIL SS	26	3	4	2
96	Pablo Lopez MIA SP	26	3	4	2
97	Daulton Varsho ARI C	25	3	4	2
98	Dylan Cease CHW SP	26	3	5	1
99	Zac Veen COL LF	20	1	5	3
100	Oneil Cruz PIT SS	23	2	5	2
101	Brennen Davis CHC CF	22	1	5	3
102	Ian Anderson ATL SP	24	3	4	2
103	Logan Gilbert SEA SP	25	3	4	2
104	Alex Kirilloff MIN 1B	24	3	4	2
105	Jo Adell LAA LF	23	3	5	1
106	Brendan Rodgers COL 2B	25	3	4	2
107	Nolan Gorman STL 3B	22	2	4	3
108	Jordan Walker STL 3B	20	1	5	3
109	Tyler Glasnow TB SP	28	1	4	4
110	Luis Severino NYY RP	28	3	4	2
111	Michael Kopech CHW RP	26	2	5	2
112	Kris Bryant SF 3B	30	3	3	3
113	Jake Cronenworth SD 2B	28	3	3	3
114	Dansby Swanson ATL SS	28	3	3	3
115	Chris Sale BOS SP	33	4	1	3
116	Nick Gonzales PIT SS	23	1	4	3
117	Tyler Soderstrom OAK C	20	1	4	3
118	Alek Thomas ARI CF	22	2	4	2
119	Robert Hassell SD CF	20	1	5	2
120	George Kirby SEA SP	24	1	5	2
121	Jack Leiter TEX SP	22	1	5	2
122	Jesse Winker CIN LF	28	3	4	1
123	Blake Snell SD SP	29	3	4	1
124	Kyle Schwarber BOS LF	29	3	3	2
125	Rhys Hoskins PHI 1B	29	3	3	2
126	Charlie Morton ATL SP	38	4	1	3
127	Lance Lynn CHW SP	35	4	1	3
128	Jose Abreu CHW 1B	35	4	1	3
129	J.D. Martinez BOS DH	34	4	1	3
130	Justin Verlander HOU SP	39	5	1	2
131	Giancarlo Stanton NYY DH	32	3	2	3
132	Mitch Haniger SEA RF	31	3	2	3
133	Emmanuel Clase CLE RP	24	3	4	1
134	Trevor Rogers MIA SP	24	3	4	1
135	Carlos Rodon CHW SP	29	4	3	1
136	Christian Yelich MIL LF	30	3	4	1
137	Edwin Diaz NYM RP	28	3	3	2
138	Max Muncy LAD 1B	31	4	3	1
139	Jazz Chisholm MIA 2B	24	3	4	1
140	Austin Meadows TB LF	27	3	3	2
141	Ranger Suarez PHI RP	26	3	4	1
142	Lance McCullers HOU SP	28	3	4	1
143	Mike Clevinger SD SP	31	3	3	2
144	Noah Syndergaard LAA SP	29	3	4	1
145	Framber Valdez HOU SP	28	3	3	2
146	Tyler Mahle CIN SP	27	3	3	2
147	Franmil Reyes CLE DH	26	3	3	2
148	Joey Gallo NYY RF	28	3	4	1
149	Zac Gallen ARI SP	26	3	4	1
150	Dustin May LAD SP	24	1	4	3