Fantasy Football Week 10: Starts and sits, sleepers and busts
Fantasy lineup calls for each Week 10 game.
By
Dave Richard
•
7 min read
While you debate which running backs to start this week, please keep something in mind: The average per-game Fantasy point total of top-12 running backs in non-PPR and PPR are lower from 2019's totals -- 15.3 in PPR and 12.4 in non-PPR. Those numbers might rise as the weather turns cold and teams start to run with higher frequency, but it's evidence that an already frustrating position in Fantasy is only getting leaner. Remember, any running back with 15-touch potential is a must-start, but it's the running backs who work the goal line who have an edge in non-PPR, and it's the guys who catch three-plus passes per game who have the edge in PPR.
More Week 10 help: Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: All positions | Starts and Sits, Sleepers and Busts | QB Preview | RB Preview | WR Preview | TE Preview | PPR Cheat Sheet | Non-PPR Cheat Sheet | Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: QB | Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: RB | Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: WR | Seven Big Questions | Waiver Wire | Trade Values | Cut List | Winners and Losers | Believe It or Not
All lines from William Hill Sportsbook.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: The Giants are in for another nail-biter. New York has played five straight where they've either lost by three or fewer or won. So it makes sense that this is the line. It's fair. Philadelphia coming off a bye with several players returning from injury certainly seem like an advantage.
Start Him
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Goedert is in the right place at the right time: The Eagles have had a tight end score in six of their past seven meetings with the Giants. Their Week 7 meeting didn't see a tight end score, but Richard Rodgers did hang six balls for 85 yards on the G-Men. In fact, an opposing tight end has had at least eight non-PPR/13 PPR points in three of the Giants' past four overall. Goedert only had one target in his first game back from an ankle injury but played 84% of the snaps and ran routes on nearly all of them. He should rebound with a minimum of six targets.
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Start Him
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Gallman has surprised with good acceleration, underrated physicality and a nose for the end zone (a touchdown in three straight). He's had 12 carries of 5-plus yards in his past two games, which is only two fewer than Devonta Freeman has in five games with New York. The Giants' O-line has done a better job making room for both him and Alfred Morris recently. What's holding Gallman back? A lack of consistent playing time -- he has played anywhere from 43 to 57% of the snaps and has maxed out at 15 touches in two of his past three. Morris and Dion Lewis have taken considerable snaps away, and that might especially be the case if the Giants find themselves trailing. However, New York has been competitive in five straight games and should afford Gallman a decent amount of touches. He's worth the nod of a low-end starter.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: The Packers defense isn't so bad that they can't blow out opponents. Four of the Packers last five wins have been by 14-plus points. It's probably not surprising when you think of Aaron Rodgers, but totally surprising when you think about the Packers defense. Public perception is that the Jaguars stink, and it's pretty much true. The oddsmakers might have gotten away with a larger line (Packers minus-16?), but maybe they hesitated because the Jaguars have managed to lose their past two by 10 or fewer points.
Start Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Most of Chark's Week 9 was encouraging -- rookie quarterback Jake Luton threw 32% of his attempts his way and he turned them into 146 yards and a score. The negatives? One-fourth of Luton's throws to Chark were uncatchable and Chark himself had a drop. And yeah, it all came against the Texans, but the Packers secondary might not be in much better shape. Top cornerbacks Jaire Alexander and Kevin King may not play, and half the reason why Richie James managed a career-best game against the Packers last week was because he played against confused backups. If Alexander in particular plays, Chark will register as a solid flex. But if he's out, the door's open for Chark to have another big game as Luton's favorite big target.
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Sit Him
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You could make the case that he's due. You could make the case that the matchup is terrific (the Jaguars have allowed four touchdowns to tight ends over their past four games, and seven total on the season). But the sad truth is that Tonyan has four or fewer targets, three or fewer catches and under 35 yards in three of his past four games. Not only has he not scored since Week 5, but he also hasn't had a red-zone target since then! Things only get messier when Allen Lazard comes back to keep the targets lean for Tonyan. Can't trust him.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: The Lions can beat a team other than Jacksonville by more than three points. Seriously, two of the Lions' three wins are by three or fewer points. In a matchup of two teams that botch their matchups on a weekly basis, it's probably safer to take points, even if that means counting on Alex Smith. Washington has the top-ranked pass defense in the league and has a higher-ranked run defense (23rd) than Detroit (30th).
Flex Starter in PPR
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Before last week, McKissic averaged a target every 7.06 snaps. Then came Alex Smith and a come-from-behind effort against the G-men, and McKissic saw a target from Smith every 3.33 snaps with Smith (and 3.2 for the game!). We already knew McKissic would see plenty of playing time as Washington's passing-downs back, but Smith prefers to not take chances downfield and will check-down to his running backs. That sets up perfectly for McKissic, who really only sees limited touches when Washington is blowing out an opponent. As bad as the Lions are, this doesn't profile as a game Washington wins running away. It should provide at least a safe 12 PPR point floor for McKissic with potential for much more -- the Lions rank first in receiving yards per catch allowed to running backs by nearly 2 yards.
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Sneaky Sleeper
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Sportsline
The Vikings and Colts made the Lions red zone pass defense look pretty silly the past couple of weeks by using their tight ends on edge and out routes to score four total touchdowns. Touchdowns are what make or break Thomas from week to week, but it's particularly cool that Smith's short-area tendency gives him a shot at compiling a target or two more than usual. If you're stuck at tight end, consider Thomas.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: The Browns can outscore the Texans. Maybe it was their drubbing at Pittsburgh or their matchup versus the Raiders in a tornado that made me forget that the Browns have actually scored at least 32 points in each of their wins. But the public hasn't forgotten -- they're riding with the Browns -- but have they forgotten that Cleveland's defense gave up 34 points to the Bengals and 38 to the Steelers? Houston could easily cover the three.
Risky Starter
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Nick Chubb is back, so Hunt figures to fall back into his prior role as the second rusher for the Browns. In Weeks 1-3, that meant playing under 50% of the snaps and being a touchdown-dependent Fantasy rusher. The good news is that the Texans defense ranks third in Fantasy points allowed to opposing rushers, and Chubb shouldn't be expected to handle every single touch. Hunt had 17, 12 and 18 touches in the three games before Chubb got hurt. Hunt will need a touchdown to help you win your matchup, making him much more of a No. 2 option.
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Start Him
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Sportsline
Honestly, can you make the case against a tight end who's had five receptions in three straight games? How about a tight end who will begin playing as, potentially, his team's top target over the rest of the year? Hooper's a needed piece of the Browns puzzle now that Odell Beckham is on the shelf and no wide receiver can be reliably counted on as a downfield threat. Hooper also doubles as a red-zone option for Baker Mayfield, who has relied upon his tight ends for touchdowns both this year (40% of his passing scores) and over his career (36%). Houston has given up a touchdown and/or 8 PPR points to a tight end in three straight.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: Sunday night never happened. Something might be up with the Bucs -- they got caught in a trap game at the Giants in Week 8 and then got caught looking stupid against the Saints. Carolina's defense is nothing like New Orleans', but its offense has proven to be pesky. My sense is that the public is still overrating the Buccaneers and underrating the Panthers.
Sneaky Sleeper
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Sportsline
No one wants to hear about Brown after he flopped in his debut last week, but the guy was getting open thanks to his quick-twitch movements in his routes. The matchup against the Panthers figures to be much easier not only for Brown, but for Tom Brady. Carolina's pass rush is pretty tame with nine sacks as a team, so the quarterback should have more time to throw downfield. Plus, Brady is known to bounce back after rough losses. Speedy receivers have particularly given the Panthers fits over the past three weeks.
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Flex Starter
Projections powered by
Sportsline
When you think of Samuel, think of a sponge, because he's soaking up targets and touches from the rest of the Panthers' skill-position guys. He's had 9, 7, 7 and 12 touches in his past four games as a mega-versatile player in the mold of ... man, dare I even say this? ... Christian McCaffrey. It's been working -- his speed on the edges has added a new element to the Panthers offense and he's scored four times in the past three weeks. Of the 11 touches he's had in the red zone this season, six have come in the past three weeks. Normally guys like this eventually fizzle out, but the Buccaneers run defense is ridiculously stout up the middle but susceptible to speed along the outside. Don't be surprised to see Samuel get 10 touches again this week, making him an intriguing player to start among receivers.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: The Chargers will find another heartbreaking way to lose. I mean, you can't beat the narrative, right? But couldn't the oddsmakers have gotten away with giving the Bolts more than 2.5 points? With the Dolphins winning two straight, they could have easily gotten a minus-4 point line. I'm still not sure Tua Tagovailoa is playing his best football, and if the Chargers' pass rush is at full strength, Miami will have a hard time. I feel foolish saying it, but I'm riding with the Bolts and the points.
Sit Him
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It's time to stop treating Henry as a must-start tight end. He's notched north of 70 yards twice this year and just 13 times in 49 career games. By definition, it puts him in the touchdown-dependent group at tight end. Well, he's only scored once this season and 10 times in his past 34 games. Maybe a 29% touchdown rate will get you pumped, but he'll take on a Dolphins defense that gave up its first two scores to tight ends last week -- both jabroneys on the Cardinals. They'll almost certainly pay more attention to Henry than Justin Herbert will -- Herbert's targeted his tight end three times inside the 20 all season. Backup tight end Donald Parham has more.
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Flex Starter
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Parker had seven targets from Tua Tagovailoa last week, most of any Dolphins receiver. But the real good news is that five of them came after Preston Williams got hurt midway through the first half. It's almost as if Tagovailoa simply moved his focus from Williams to Parker, a positive development since Williams will miss multiple weeks with a foot injury. The Bolts have given up six scores to wideouts over their past five games, and top outside cornerback Casey Hayward is graded 46th among qualifying cornerbacks in coverage per Pro Football Focus.
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Risky Starter
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It feels like whenever the Fantasy universe is counting on a big game from Gesicki, he lets us down. Well, the Dolphins are the ones counting on him this week with Preston Williams out. The Chargers have had all sorts of problems covering guys from the slot, where Gesicki has lined up 60% of the time this season. Los Angeles has also allowed a touchdown to a tight end in four of its past five and five of its past seven. There's a size mismatch the Dolphins can manufacture if they so choose -- it'll mean Tagovailoa has to look for him. Gesicki has just six targets from the rookie through two weeks -- same as Myles Gaskin, who's played one fewer game.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: Las Vegas isn't that much better than the Broncos. Las Vegas barely hung on against the Chargers last week, and now they're modest favorites over a Broncos team that's furiously come back in each of its past two games. The truth is, Denver's offense is kind of fun, and their defense was missing several starters that should return in the secondary this week. Meanwhile, Las Vegas' defense has been brutal, allowing at least 24 points to everyone except the Browns in a wind-aided victory two weeks ago. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Broncos give the Raiders a game.
Sit Him
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A terrible track record combined with a pressure-packed outlook suggests a rough week ahead for Carr. The Broncos' defensive flaws last week were caused in part by the absence of starting cornerbacks A.J. Bouye and Bryce Callahan. They're expected to play. Denver also ranks third in the NFL in pass rush pressure rate, something that figures to hinder Carr, who ranks 18th among starting quarterbacks with a 50% completion rate when under pressure. Tack on that Carr has one or fewer touchdowns in 8 of 11 starts against the Broncos, including each of his past four, and it's hard to see him finding a big game. He's fine as a bye-week replacement.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: In a high-scoring game, Arizona is better. After losing to the Dolphins last week, the betting public figures to chase Buffalo even if they're on the road. This is where I'm supposed to say, "don't do that" and pick the Cardinals, but Arizona's defense has really only impressed against the Cowboys, their coaching hasn't been quite as savvy as many hoped, Josh Allen hasn't been a train wreck, and Kyler Murray has been prone to turnovers. Yeah, it feels sucker-ific, but I think Buffalo is the right side to be on.
Start Him
Projections powered by
Sportsline
It's been an up-and-down season for Brown, but one thing remains clear: He's fared considerably better versus man coverage. His catch rate is 15% higher, his receiving average is 3.5 yards per catch stronger, his yards after catch per reception is nearly 6.5 yards better and both of his scores came against man coverage. Here comes a date with the Cardinals, who play the fourth-highest percentage of man coverage in the NFL. It only helps that the game is assumed to be the highest-scoring matchup of the week, suggesting more touchdowns are there for the taking. Brown should be a part of DFS lineups as well as re-draft.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: The 49ers won't keep it close, but they won't totally get blown out. I can't believe it's only nine points, but then again, the Saints' blowout win over the Buccaneers last week was only their second win by more than one score (both against Tampa Bay). However, each of the 49ers past three losses have been by 10-plus points. Each week there are one or two bets where I just know I'm taking the fishy side, but I can't help it. I'll buy into the Saints defense rattling Nick Mullens.
Start Him in PPR
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Tired legs? What tired legs? The 49ers clearly went with McKinnon as their primary running back last week, giving him 85% of their first-quarter snaps and 74% for the game. Assuming the Niners don't get any of their veteran runners back, McKinnon figures to again lead their charge. He'll also see plenty of work as the Niners' passing-downs back in what will almost certainly be a matchup where the 49ers chase the Saints on the scoreboard. He's more of a flex choice in half- and non-PPR leagues.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: The Rams are deserving favorites. What? Why? How? Didn't we just see the Rams get their doors blown off by the Dolphins? Well, yeah, and we also saw the Seahawks defense completely blow it against the Bills. There's no doubt that the oddsmakers could have made the Seahawks a favorite, maybe even a three-point favorite. They didn't do it. They want your money on the Seahawks. You might find it hard to do, but you've got to give the rested Rams your confidence.
Start Him
Projections powered by
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This one's all about the matchup. You can't ignore that the Seahawks still rank at the bottom of the league in pass defense and second highest in Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Shoot, the Seahawks have let up 40-plus Fantasy points to quarterbacks in two of their past three. What do you think the Rams are going to do?! Expect a bunch of play-action and quick passing to set up some deeper shots and nifty red-zone work to help push Goff to a top-12 finish.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: Joe Burrow can't hang with the Steeler gang. Pretty sure Garrett Gilbert just hung with the Steelers last week, and Lamar Jackson and Ryan Tannehill the weeks before that. We're starting to see some cracks in the Steelers foundation -- Ben Roethlisberger is playing hurt, the pass defense is letting up some numbers, the run game hasn't been as stout. Obviously if Roethlisberger winds up not playing, the Bengals side will be popular, but getting the points might be the side to be on anyway.
Start Him in PPR
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Johnson has proven to be a volume-driven receiver who doesn't do well with deep targets (1 of 9 caught) and has a 9.3% drop rate. But in five games where he's played at least 75% of the snaps, he has four outings with 10-plus targets, six-plus catches and 11-plus PPR points. That's what we're looking for against the Bengals, who allow a 67% catch rate to all receivers with at least one scoring in each of their past seven games. Six of nine receivers with at least seven targets against the Bengals have posted at least 15 PPR points. He's more of a flex in non-PPR.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: The Patriots are as bad as the Jets made them look. Did the oddsmakers give the Ravens enough points? Couldn't they have gotten away with more? After all, the Ravens spiked Bill Belichick's bunch by 17 points last year. And this time around, it's Baltimore with the much better defense. Am I getting suckered? Maybe, but I just don't see how the Patriots offense contends.
Sit Them
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Ingram's return to the Ravens backfield is bad news for Fantasy managers. In the five games these three played together, no one rusher had more than 11 touches in a game. And only twice did ONE of them have 10-plus Fantasy points in non-PPR in a game. Ingram and Edwards have basically split the rushing-downs work while Dobbins has handled the overwhelming majority of third downs. But they all figure to play anywhere from 25 to 45% of the snaps each with no defined, guaranteeable roles. Plan on either starting one of them with absolutely no expectations, or sit them all for almost anybody else.
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Risky Starter
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Andrews isn't playing every down for the Ravens, but that's nothing new. What is new is Lamar Jackson not throwing to him as often. Andrews is down a full target per game on average from Jackson, and he's also not seeing quite as many deep throws (five through eight games) or targets inside the 10-yard line (five). It doesn't seem like Andrews is limited physically, but he says he's getting double-teamed more often now than before. Expect this to keep happening until the Ravens start to scare defenses with another target in the passing game. The matchup this week is especially dangerous as the Patriots are among the league's best at covering tight ends, holding each of Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Darren Waller to 10 PPR points or less.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: Dalvin Cook and the Vikings defense are mirages. Honestly, who in their right mind would take the Bears getting only 2.5 points?! This should be at least Minnesota minus-5! Naturally, I think it's a trap. Chicago has won four straight in the series, holding the Vikings to 20 or fewer points in each. The Vikings defense was fortunate against the Packers, and the Lions imploded as usual. That may explain the past two weeks. The Bears, with their backs against the wall, pull out another "how'd-they-do-that" victory.
Sit Him
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Over the past two-and-a-half seasons (40 games), Thielen has put up 15-plus PPR points in eight of 13 games when a Vikings running back hasn't matched those 15 PPR points. But he's failed to hit that 15-point PPR mark in 19 of 27 games when a Vikings running back did. Nothing is stopping Dalvin Cook right now -- he's running great and is being given a big opportunity by Vikings offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak as the team tries to fight its way back into the NFC playoff race. Not only is this correlation working against Thielen, but the Bears pass defense remains one of the toughest in football. Only three receivers (A.J. Brown, Josh Reynolds, Mike Evans) have scored on Chicago this season, two in the red zone. Thielen has a terrible track record against the Bears, scoring zero times in his past seven matchups against them with no more than 13 PPR points to his name. If you can find someone with even a slightly better outlook, use them instead of Thielen.
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Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The line wants us to believe: There's no home-field advantage for the Titans. But they've had convincing wins over the Bills and Bears at home and had the Steelers on the ropes. Indy is 2-2 on the road and their offense has a lot of issues to work itself out of. I have a hard time trusting the Colts to score 23 points as their implied team total suggests. The Titans should with a big dose of Derrick Henry.
Start Him
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If you're starting Taylor, you're hoping he either scores or FINALLY runs without hesitation. He's basically been splitting rush downs with Jordan Wilkins while Nyheim Hines soaks up obvious passing situations. Such was the case in the second half last week when Hines took on more snaps (16) than Taylor and Wilkins combined (15). Taylor's elusiveness (rated 57th out of 61st rushers by Pro Football Focus) won't help him dominate the rushing workload, but the Colts coaching staff's eagerness to let him work near the goal line saves his value. Taylor is 4 of 8 on goal-to-go carries from the 5-yard line or closer in 2020. By comparison, Wilkins has had only six such carries over the past two seasons, scoring on three. This feels like an edge Taylor has over Wilkins, and for this week it sure helps that the Titans have allowed a running back to score in every game this season -- including seven coming on the ground and four from the 1-yard line. Wilkins (and Hines) are both low-end flexes.
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Sneaky Sleeper
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Sportsline
Alie-Cox has started to see a little more action in the passing game, capturing three receptions against the Lions and Ravens. He also has the superior rate in yards per route run (3.34) compared to Trey Burton (1.22). But the real key here is Jack Doyle missing the game -- without Doyle in Week 2, Alie-Cox played a season-high 67% of snaps and had 111 yards on five grabs. True, Burton wasn't around for that game, but even last week, Alie-Cox played more snaps than Burton once Doyle left late in the first half. His big size is appealing to Philip Rivers, and the Titans have allowed a score to the position in all but three games this year -- with two of those games against the Bengals (no tight end catches) and Bills (one tight end catch). They've also given up at least 11 PPR points to a tight end in three of their past four. At the very least, remember his name for DFS lineups.
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Sit Them
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Since he began as the Titans starter last season, Tannehill has had at least 22 Fantasy points in 67% of his games and at least 20 Fantasy points in 83% of his games. But he was more of a bystander in his lone game against Indy in 2019 (17 Fantasy points), and the Colts have impressively found themselves atop the list of fewest Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Even if Tannehill has an efficient game, it's not likely he'll find three touchdowns, which is the kind of upside you want from a starter these days.
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For nearly three-and-a-half quarters last week, it felt like the Titans forgot they even had Smith on the roster. Then in two consecutive plays, Smith racked up 32 yards and a touchdown. It was encouraging to see Smith moving well after getting banged up a few weeks back. Sadly, he's drawn the toughest matchup a tight end can get -- the Colts have yet to allow a tight end to score on them and no tight end has exceeded 65 yards. Smith has also never scored on Indy in five career matchups.
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