Breaking down NFL playoff picture, plus Week 15 grades and Dolphins-Steelers predictions for Monday night

Green Bay Packers v Denver Broncos - NFL 2025

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Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

The NFL playoffs are going to have a slightly different look this year and that's because the Chiefs WON'T be involved. For the first time since 2014, the Chiefs won't be making a trip to the postseason after they were officially eliminated from playoff contention. To add insult to injury, they also lost Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL.

The Chiefs dynasty might not be over, but it's definitely on shaky ground right. With the Chiefs out, you might be wondering who's in and we'll be covering that today by taking a look at the playoff picture. We'll also be handing out some grades and making some picks for tonight's game between the Steelers and Dolphins.

As always, here's your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown.

1. NFL Week 15 grades: Broncos earn 'A-' for win over Packers, Philip Rivers leads Colts to high grade

Indianapolis Colts v Seattle Seahawks - NFL 2025 — Getty Images

Welcome to my favorite part of the Monday newsletter, which is where I hand out grades for all 32 teams. Actually, we have two teams playing tonight, so I guess I only handed out 30 grades.

With that in mind, here are the grades from three notable games that were played Sunday:

Bills 35-31 over Patriots (full recap)

Bills takeaway: Whatever Sean McDermott said to this team at halftime, he might want to bottle some of that up and save it for the playoffs. The Bills were a total disaster during a first half where they totaled just 76 yards, but then they went back to the basics in the second half: They fed James Cook the ball and they let Josh Allen work his magic. Cook had 107 yards and two rushing touchdowns in the game with 65 of that and both scores coming in the second half. Josh Allen willed his team to the win with 194 total yards in the second half, including a 14-yard TD pass on third-and-goal from New England's 14 that gave Buffalo its first lead of the game. The Bills defense was just as good in the second half, surrendering just 100 yards. The Bills (10-4) might not win the AFC East, but they proved they can go on the road and win in a playoff atmosphere, which is big, because there's a good chance this team will be playing a road playoff game or two if they want to get to the Super Bowl. Grade: B-
Patriots takeaway: This was a monumental collapse by a Patriots team that blew a 21-0 lead. The always accurate Drake Maye, who threw just two incompletions in the first half, went ice cold in the second half, going just 5 of 12 for 47 yards with an interception. With Maye struggling, the Patriots turned to their rushing attack and that briefly worked when TreVeyon Henderson broke loose for a 65-yard score, but New England only had 4 rushing yards in the second half outside of that play. The Patriots (11-3) are still in the driver's seat to win the AFC East, but this second-half collapse is certainly going to leave a bad taste in their mouth and it makes you wonder if they'll actually be able to win a game come playoff time. Grade: C

Seahawks 18-16 over Colts (full recap)

Colts takeaway: Considering their circumstances, the Colts knew they were going to have to play a nearly perfect game to pull off an upset in Seattle and they ALMOST made it happen. The Colts pulled off one of the most impressive defensive showings all year by any team by holding the high-powered Seahawks out of the end zone. Offensively, the Colts let Jonathan Taylor carry the load, but Philip Rivers did chip in with several key throws. Rivers had a chance to turn this into one of the most unforgettable performance in NFL history with a possible game-winning drive, but he threw an interception on his final play. The Colts didn't win, but Rivers played well enough to give the Colts (8-6) some hope down the stretch. Grade: B+
Seahawks takeaway: The concern with Sam Darnold last season was that he disappeared down the stretch, so the Seahawks should be slightly worried about the fact the offense didn't generate a single touchdown in this game. On the other hand, the Seahawks should also be feeling good about what they saw from Darnold because he came up big in the fourth quarter: He threw for 91 yards while leading the team on three scoring drives that all ended with a Jason Myers field goals (the Seahawks kicker went 6-for-6 in the game and was the hero of the day). A loss here would have been an all-time choke, but the Seahawks staved off the upset bid, and now, they can focus on their Thursday showdown with the Rams. Grade: B-

Broncos 34-26 over Packers (full recap)

Packers takeaway: If the Packers defense has struggled in one spot this year, it's stopping teams in the red zone and that one weakness was on full display against the Broncos. Denver made four trips inside of Green Bay's 20-yard line and the Broncos scored a TD on all four trips. When your defense is giving up a touchdown on every red zone trip, that means the offense has to play close to perfect and the Packers just couldn't do that against Denver's defense. Jordan Love had a solid game, but he fell apart during a fourth quarter that included an interception, two failed fourth downs and two sacks by the Broncos defense. This was a stinging loss for the Packers because not only did they fall out of first place in the NFC North, but they also lost Micah Parsons to an apparent season-ending injury. Grade: B-
Broncos takeaway: If there were any questions left about whether Bo Nix is clutch, he answered them in this game. The Broncos QB outdueled Jordan Love, throwing for 302 yards and four touchdowns and the impressive part is that he did all of that against one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Broncos defense also proved that it can shut down a good team. After struggling some in the first half, the defense harassed Love in the second half: The Packers QB was sacked three times in the game (all in the second half) and he threw two interceptions (both in the second half). With the Patriots losing, the Broncos suddenly have the inside track to earning the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. Grade: A-

As for the other 24 grades we handed out in Week 15, you can check those out by clicking here.

2. Overreactions from Week 15: Has Zac Taylor coached his last meaningful game with the Bengals?

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Tyler Sullivan decided to take a look at several things that happened in Week 15 to decide if we're all overreacting.

Statement: Josh Allen has played himself into the MVP conversation.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. Josh Allen was sensational in Week 15. The Bills QB kept his team's hopes of winning the division alive by rallying from a 21-point deficit over the Patriots. The reigning NFL MVP led five straight touchdown drives in the process. Allen finished the day throwing for three touchdowns to go with his 193 yards through the air and a 123.1 passer rating ... Not only does this latest comeback win keep Buffalo in range of the AFC East crown, but it should also thrust him into the MVP conversation with Drake Maye (who he just defeated) and Matthew Stafford. Allen just notched his third season with at least 25 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns, which is the most in NFL history. If he gets Buffalo back atop the division, there's a strong case for a back-to-back MVP.

Statement: Zac Taylor has coached his last meaningful game for the Bengals.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. After a shutout loss to the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati is officially eliminated from playoff contention, which should make the seat under Zac Taylor hotter than the surface of the sun. While he may not get the boot in the immediate aftermath of this contest, I believe he coached his last meaningful game for Cincinnati in Week 15, with the club potentially looking for new leadership once the regular season officially concludes. When you pair Burrow's comments with the lackluster effort we saw unfold in Week 15, this feels like an organization that has no one to inspire, which falls on the shoulders of Taylor.

Statement: The Seahawks are fool's gold after nearly losing to Philip Rivers
Overreaction or reality: Reality. The Seahawks were nearly the butt of the joke throughout the NFL, had they not pulled off a last-minute comeback to avoid being upset by the Colts. Specifically, it would've been a horrendous look for a team earmarked for the playoffs to lose to a 44-year-old Philip Rivers, who hadn't played an NFL game for 1,800 days. ... With a massive showdown with the Rams on deck for Thursday, I think Seattle was simply caught sleeping a bit in this game and looking ahead to that matchup. Its strong play defensively and an offense centered around Jaxson Smith-Njigba is enough to make them dangerous in the playoffs, even if it didn't quite look like it on Sunday.

There are plenty more overreactions, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here.

3. 11 wild stats from Week 15: Chiefs out of the playoffs for first time since 2014

Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some wild stats about the games that were just played.

With that in mind, here are 11 crazy stats from Week 15:

Chiefs out of the playoffs. The Chiefs' streak of 10 straight playoff appearances will be coming to an end this year after they were eliminated on Sunday. Their streak will end just one short of the record, which is held by the Patriots, who went to the postseason 11 straight times from 2009 through 2019. The Chiefs' run of seven straight AFC title game appearances and three straight Super Bowl appearances will also be coming to an end.
New blood in the playoffs. With Patrick Mahomes out, that means this will be the first year since 2010 that neither Mahomes or Tom Brady will play in the AFC title game. The last AFC Championship without either player came when Mark Sanchez and the Jets faced Ben Roehtlisberger and the Steelers.
Seahawks and Colts give us serious drama. The Seahawks win over the Colts marked the first time in NFL history where both teams hit a lead-changing field goal of 55 yards or longer in the final minute of the fourth quarter. First, Blake Grupe put the Colts ahead with a 60-yarder, then Jason Myers hit a 56-yarder with 18 seconds left to give Seattle the win.
Patriots blow a 21-point lead. The Bills came back from a 21-0 deficit to beat the Patriots, 35-31. This this tied the all-time record for biggest comeback against a team on a winning streak of 10 games or more. The Bills were also the last team to do it and it happened back in 2011 when they beat, yup, you guessed it, the Patriots.
Comeback kids. The Broncos were trailing 23-14 in the second half before mounting a furious comeback that saw them win the game, 34-26. This was the Broncos' 11th comeback win this season, which is tied with the 2024 Chiefs for the most in NFL history.
Rams offensive fireworks. The Rams totaled 41 points and 519 yards in their win over the Lions, marking the second straight week that they've topped 40 points with at least 500 yards. That makes them the first team since the 2018 Saints to hit those numbers in back-to-back games.
Why you should always bet against the Panthers when they're favored. The Panthers were favored by 2.5 points over the Saints, which is notable, because they ended up losing the game. The Panthers have now lost 12 straight games as a favorite, which is the longest streak by any team since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. The Panthers are also 0-2 straight up as a favorite this year with both losses coming to New Orleans.
Jets defense is about to hit rock bottom. The Jets have gone 14 straight games without picking off a pass, which is tied with the 2024-25 49ers for the longest streak of all time. If the Jets don't pick off a pass in Week 16 against the Saints, they'll have the record to themselves.
Raiders struggled against Super Bowl teams. The Raiders played both teams from Super Bowl LIX (Chiefs and Eagles) and they somehow lost BOTH games 31-0. That makes the the Raiders the first team since the 1972 Colts to get shut out by each of the previous year's Super Bowl teams. The Eagles beat the Raiders in a game that lasted just two hours and 31 minutes, making it the shortest NFL game in 29 years.
Wild week for comebacks. There were a total of six teams that won in Week 15 despite trailing by at least 10 at some point in the game. That's tied for the most double-digit comebacks in a single week in NFL history.
Trevor Lawrence makes NFL history. The Jaguars QB had a career game: He threw for 330 yards and five touchdowns while adding 51 rushing yards and another score on the ground. That makes Lawrence the first player in NFL history with at least 300 passing yards, 50 rushing yards, five touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown in a single game.

If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me.

4. Breaking down the NFL playoff picture: Broncos have inside track to top seed in the AFC

With just three full weeks left to play in the season, the playoff race is heating up, so we're going to start breaking down the playoff picture every Monday. With that in mind, here's where everything stands heading into tonight's game.

Let's check out the AFC first:
1. *Broncos (12-2) -- AFC West leader
2. Patriots (11-3) -- AFC East leader
3. Jaguars (10-4) -- AFC South leader
4. Steelers (7-6) -- AFC North leader
5. Chargers (10-4)
6. Bills (10-4)
7. Texans (9-5)
IN THE HUNT
8. Colts (8-6)
9. Ravens (7-7)
10. Dolphins (6-7)

*-clinched playoff berth

AFC takeaway: The Broncos have taken over the top spot in the AFC and as long they go at least 2-1 down the stretch, they'll clinch the No. 1 overall seed no matter what anyone else does. However, it won't be easy to go 2-1 because Denver will close the year with the Jaguars, Chiefs and Chargers. The Broncos could also clinch the top seed as soon as this week with a win over the Jaguars combined with a Chargers loss (to the Cowboys), a Bills loss (to the Browns) and Patriots loss (to the Ravens).

Monday night note: The Dolphins will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss tonight. As for the Steelers, they'll be in first place in the AFC North after tonight whether they win or lose. If they lose, they'll drop to 7-7, but they'll have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Ravens.

Now, let's check out the NFC:
1. *Rams (11-3) -- NFC West leader
2. Bears (10-4) -- NFC North leader
3. Eagles (9-5) -- NFC East leader
4. Buccaneers (7-7) -- NFC South leader
5. Seahawks (11-3)
6. 49ers (10-4)
7. Packers (9-4-1)
IN THE HUNT
8. Lions (8-6)
9. Panthers (7-7)
10. Cowboys (6-7-1)

*-clinched playoff berth

NFC takeaway: The 49ers have quietly put themselves in a spot where they could earn the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. If the 49ers win their final three games AND the Seahawks beat the Rams on Thursday night, then the 49ers will not only win the NFC West, but they'll also clinch the NFC's top seed. According to the oddsmakers, the NFC West appears to be a two-horse race, but the 49ers are still very much in it.

If you want a closer look at the playoff picture, we've got that here.

5. Monday night preview: Picks and best bets for Dolphins at Steelers

If the Dolphins want to keep their playoff hopes alive, they have to do something they haven't been able to pull off in eight years: Win a game in cold weather. The kickoff temperature is expected to be just under 20 degrees, which isn't good news for a Dolphins team that's 0-11 in its past 11 games played when the kickoff temperature is below 40 degrees.

Although the Dolphins have struggled in cold weather, they will catch a break tonight because T.J. Watt has been ruled out due to a lung injury he suffered at the team facility last week.

Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game:

Why the Dolphins can win: The Dolphins have won four in a row and during that streak, they've averaged 192.3 rushing yards per game. That number should give them a lot of confidence going into tonight no matter what the temperature is and that's mostly because the Dolphins are 5-0 this season when they rush for at least 140 yards. And now, they get to face a Steelers defense that has given up more than 200 yards rushing in two straight games. If the Dolphins can move the ball on the ground, they can pull off the upset.
Why the Steelers can win: The Steelers best bet tonight might just be to let the Dolphins beat themselves. Not only have the Dolphins lost 11 straight when the kickoff temperature is under 40 degrees, but they've lost those games by an average of 15 points per game. If the Steelers can force some early turnovers, that could kill any confidence the Dolphins might have going into this game. The Dolphins are 1-4 this season when they turn the ball over multiple times and they have a quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa who's tied for the NFL-lead in interceptions with 14. Basically, if the Steelers defense comes up with a few big plays, Pittsburgh should be in good shape.

You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here.

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props (via DraftKings).

ONE QB PROP I LIKE: Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 194.5 passing yards (-111): During the Dolphins' four-game winning streak, Tua hasn't topped 175 passing yards a single time and it's hard to see that changing tonight. Tua always seems to struggle in cold weather and the best way to prevent him from struggling is to not let him throw the ball. This feels like a game where the Dolphins will have a run-heavy offense, which should keep Tua under 195 yards.
ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE TONIGHT: Riley Patterson OVER 1.5 field goals (-126): Patterson has been a field goal machine for the Dolphins. In his past eight games, he's gone over 1.5 field goals a total of seven times and he's actually averaging THREE field goals per game over the past three weeks.

If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 32-30 (13-15 on kicker props and 18-14 on all other props). And now, it's time for some picks.

PICKS FOR 'MNF'

My pick: Dolphins 19-16 over Steelers
Dubin's pick: Dolphins 21-17 over Steelers
Prisco's pick: Steelers 27-20 over Dolphins
Tyler Sullivan: Steelers 23-21 over Dolphins
Jordan Dajani: Steelers 20-14 over Dolphins

Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, there are seven of us and five of us are taking the Steelers to win the game straight up, but only three of us are taking Pittsburgh to cover as a 3.5-point favorite.

6. Extra points: Patrick Mahomes suffers torn ACL

It was a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.

Patrick Mahomes done for the season. Not only were the Chiefs eliminated from the playoffs on Sunday, but they got even worse news with the loss of Patrick Mahomes, who tore his ACL against the Chargers. The biggest problem for the Chiefs is that this could impact next season. It takes about nine months to recover from an ACL tear, so in a perfect recovery scenario, he might be ready for Week 1, but there's also a good chance he could miss a game or two to start the 2026 season.
Micah Parsons also suffers serious injury. The Packers star pass rusher left the game with a knee injury that appears to be a torn ACL, according to ESPN. "It didn't look good. I'll leave it at that," Packers coach Matt LaFleur said following Green Bay's loss to the Broncos. If Parsons is done, that's a brutal hit for the Packers' Super Bowl aspirations. You can read more about Parsons' injury, including how it happens, by checking out our full story here.
Jets fire their defensive coordinator. Jets coach Aaron Glenn announced on Monday that the team has decided to part ways with Steve Wilks. The firing comes one day after Wilks' defense surrendered 48 points to the Jaguars. And let's not forget, the Jets don't have a single interception this season. At this point, this is a move that's more or less rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic for the 3-11 Jets.
Playoff eliminations. The Chiefs weren't the only team eliminated from the playoffs on Sunday. The Bengals and Vikings also got eliminated. The Vikings got eliminated before they even took the field on Sunday night thanks to a Bears win over the Browns. As for the Bengals, they could have avoided elimination if they could have beaten the Ravens, but instead, they lost 24-0, marking the first time the team has been shut out in eight years.