NFL odds, picks for Week 14: Advanced computer model loving 49ers and Patriots

The Week 14 NFL schedule features plenty of games that will have a major impact on the NFL playoff picture with just four weeks remaining in the regular season. The Chiefs will get their first big test without running back Kareem Hunt as they host the Ravens, with Kansas City favored by 6.5 in the latest NFL odds. Meanwhile, the Rams' elite offense will be tested by Khalil Mack and the Bears (+3) on Sunday Night Football. And the week wraps up with Monday Night Football between the Vikings and Seahawks (-3) in a game that could go a long way in determining the NFC wild card race. With so much on the line and NFL odds and spreads shifting as game times approach, be sure to check out the Week 14 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine's proven computer model.

SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight up last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 14 on a blistering 14-3 run. For the season, it is now 28-12 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 76-46. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 129-61 on the season, ranking in the top two on NFLPickWatch.com. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now it has examined the latest NFL odds and spreads, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 14 NFL picks are in. One of the top Week 14 NFL picks the model recommends: the Patriots (-7.5) cover on the road against the Dolphins

Miami stayed alive in the AFC wild-card picture with a 21-17 victory over Buffalo that put it back at .500 (6-6) on the year. An upset over the Patriots would be huge for the Dolphins' postseason chances, but the model is calling for a comfortable double-digit win for New England. 

According to the model, Tom Brady throws for over 325 yards and two touchdowns, while Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski team up for 150 yards receiving. The Patriots cover in well over 50 percent of simulations, while the over (48) hits more than 55 percent of the time. 

Another one of the top Week 14 NFL predictions from the model: the 49ers (+3.5) cover at home against the Broncos. 

When it comes to the NFL standings, this game is far more meaningful to the Broncos, a 6-6 team fighting to stay in the AFC playoff picture as the season winds down. Denver has won three straight, but injuries continue to pile up after wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (Achilles) went down in practice this week and is now done for the season.

The 49ers are playing for pride at this point, but Kyle Shanahan's short-handed team has shown the ability to keep games competitive. They've either won or stayed within one score in four of their last seven games, and the model is calling for them to do so again on Sunday. According to the model, San Francisco covers in over half of simulations, while the Over (45) also has plenty of value because that hits more than 55 percent of the time.

The model also has a strong pick for the huge NFC East battle between the Cowboys and Eagles, and is calling for a playoff contender to get absolutely stunned by an underdog in a game that will shake up the standings forever.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 14? And which playoff contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 51)
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-4.5, 50)
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns (+1, 47.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 51)
New Orleans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.5, 54.5)
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-4, 38)
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+7.5, 48)
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+3.5, 41)
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, 45)
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (-14, 48.5)  
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5, 40.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 44.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders (+10, 51.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (+3, 51)
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 45.5)

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