The 2017 NFL season's 13th weekend will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors. The New England Patriots are nine-point favorites over the Buffalo Bills, the New Orleans Saints are 5.5-point favorites over the Carolina Panthers, and the Philadelphia Eagles are five-point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks in a must-see NFC showdown that has already seen plenty of line movement.
With so many eye-popping games and so many NFL odds on the move, you'll want to know what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking. SportsLine's Projection Model went an amazing 174-80-2 on straight-up NFL picks last season, better than all 98 experts tracked by NFLPickWatch -- every single one.
SportsLine computer picks also would have won more than 96 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool Manager leagues that made straight-up NFL picks last season.
It's fresh off a week in which it went an astonishing 13-3 on straight-up picks, improving its record to a blistering 33-11 over the past three weeks. Last week, it nailed the Eagles' victory and cover of a huge spread (-14) against the Bears. It was also all over the Panthers' victory against the Jets in a game that Vegas viewed as close to 50/50.
With Week 13 here, the computer simulated every matchup 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.
One team SportsLine's proven model is all-in on: the New England Patriots. The model loves Tom Brady and company to beat the Bills in an AFC East showdown and easily cover a nine-point spread in a 28-17 decision.
No matter how high the line, the Patriots continue to cover and burn Vegas in the process. Their cover of a double-digit line against the Dolphins last week moved them to 7-4 against the spread this season, and it was their fifth straight cover.
The model has New England winning the game straight-up in a whopping 75 percent of simulations and covering the spread 54 percent of the time.
Another team the model is all over in Week 13: the Los Angeles Chargers, who are massive 13.5-point favorites over the Cleveland Browns. Despite the huge line, the model says the Chargers win and cover, 29-15.
The Browns are just 2-9 against the spread this season and travel to L.A. to face a Chargers team that's won five of their last seven games and put up 82 points the last two weeks total.
The numbers for the red-hot Chargers have been astonishing. QB Philip Rivers is fresh off a 434-yard, three TD performance against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. And WR Keenan Allen has come alive for 331 yards and three touchdowns the last two games. Their defense picked off rookie Bills QB Nate Peterman five times.
Don't be turned off by the 13.5-point line. Back the Chargers with confidence against a Browns team that's dead last in points scored (15.1 per game).
One surprise: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers get a 22-21 victory against the Green Bay Packers. The Packers are 2.5-point home favorites in a game that opened as a pick'em, but SportsLine says the Bucs win outright 53 percent of the time and cover the spread 58 percent of the time.
Both teams are coming off losses and are in must-win situations this week as they try to stay alive in the playoff hunt. Though he's back throwing, Aaron Rodgers (collarbone) remains out for the Packers, while the Bucs will get Jameis Winston (shoulder) back after a three-game hiatus.
The Packers nearly upset the 9-2 Steelers last week, making this pick from SportsLine even more of a shock. Quarterback Brett Hundley was nearly flawless, throwing for three touchdowns and 250 yards against a Steelers team that hadn't given up more than 17 points in the previous five games.
The public is taking the Bucs just 25 percent of the time against the spread, but SportsLine says go against the grain and back them with confidence on Sunday.
The model also has a top-rated pick you need to see for the big NFC showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and the Philadelphia Eagles -- two legitimate Super Bowl contenders. You can only get that pick at SportsLine.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 13? Check out the NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the big Eagles-Seahawks game you need to be all over, all from the model that would have won 96 percent of football pools last season and went 13-3 straight up last week, and get NFL picks from 16 experts.
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets (+3, 43.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-3, 41)
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+9, 48.5)
Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (+2, 40)
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-6.5, 43)
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5, 40)
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 43.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 47)
Tampa Bay Bucs at Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 45)
Cleveland Browns at L.A. Chargers (-13.5, 44)
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-5.5, 48)
L.A. Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+7, 44)
N.Y. Giants at Oakland Raiders (-9, 41.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (+5, 47)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+5, 43.5)
