NFL Week 11 QB Power Rankings: Is Jimmy Garoppolo a liability for a 49ers team that is Super Bowl caliber?

It's strange. Jimmy Garoppolo has been in the NFL for six years now. At one point, he was Tom Brady's heir. At another point, he was the savior of the 49ers franchise. At this point, he's the $137.5 million quarterback of an 8-1 49ers team that sits atop the deepest division and conference in the NFL. The 49ers' near-perfect start to the season has pushed Garoppolo's career record as a starting quarterback to 16-3. And yet, despite all of those undeniable facts, Garoppolo remains an enigma.

Some see that win-loss record and they consider Garoppolo to be worthy of the franchise quarterback label and the $27.5 million per year that comes attached to a label like that. He just wins -- 84.2 percent of the time, to be exact, and eight out of nine times this year. Others see that win-loss record and consider Garoppolo to be a quarterback that's been dragged along by superior teammates and coaches -- Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels in New England, and now Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco.

For the vast majority of Garoppolo's career, ever since he arrived in San Francisco just before the 2017 trade deadline, I've subscribed to the second narrative. It's not that I thought he was bad after a career in New England that amounted to only two starts during Brady's Deflategate suspension. It's just that I've never thought Garoppolo has demonstrated the capability to be a franchise-level or elite (or whatever word you want to use) quarterback. I've kept an open mind to the point where after he lit up the Cardinals on Halloween for 317 yards and four touchdowns, I went on the Pick Six NFL Podcast with the rest of the Super Friends and I praised Garoppolo for a performance that I didn't think he had in him, and said that because Garoppolo had now demonstrated the ability to play like a superstar quarterback, I could buy the 49ers as a legitimate Super Bowl team.

I still think that remains true. I think the 49ers are Super Bowl good. I think Garoppolo is good enough to help the 49ers win a championship. I think he has performances like the one he submitted against the Cardinals buried within him still. But I also think the second narrative is less of a narrative and more of a truth, and the first narrative is lazily built around his win-loss record. I believe that on Monday night we saw what has often been the case throughout this season and his career. We saw a quarterback that is mostly being carried by a strong support structure. We saw a quarterback that might just be a liability on an otherwise Super Bowl-caliber roster.

With a chance to practically wrap up the division by taking a three-game lead over the Seahawks, Garoppolo went out there against the then 27th-ranked defense by DVOA and proceeded to complete only 24 of his 46 pass attempts (52.2 percent) for 248 yards (5.4 yards per attempt), one touchdown, one interception, and a 66.2 passer rating. He also fumbled twice.

Pressure was a theme of matchup. The Seahawks bombarded him. Teams, by now, should be well aware of how to rattle him. Six of Garoppolo's eight interceptions have come against the blitz even though he's attempted 72 fewer passes against the blitz than he has against normal rushes.

While it's true that Garoppolo's offensive line betrayed him, repeatedly getting overrun by Jadeveon Clowney and co, his receivers dropped countless passes, and that he was without George Kittle for the entirety of the game and Emmanuel Sanders for a significant portion of the night, it's also true that Garoppolo submitted a worse performance than his already terrible statline indicates. He was lucky to have thrown only one interception.

And about that one interception. It absolutely should've been caught by Garoppolo's intended target, Kendrick Bourne. That's irrefutable. But at the same time, ball placement matters. If Garoppolo had put the ball on his wide-open target so that he didn't have to leap for it, the interception likely never would've occured. Bourne should've caught the ball. No one is arguing otherwise. But Garoppolo's ball placement turned a routine catch into a leaping catch. The ball placement, for how wide open the throw was, was bad, even if the drop was significantly worse. Am I being a harsh critic? Sure, but only because quarterbacks of Garoppolo's stature are supposed to be held to higher standards than the Jameis Winstons and Mitchell Trubiskys of the NFL.

Now, about those near interceptions.

On the game's first series, which resulted in a 49ers field goal, Garoppolo was picked off near midfield by Shaquill Griffin when he threw a late and lazy pass to an in-cutting receiver, but a questionable holding penalty on the Seahawks -- not involving Garoppolo's intended target -- wiped away that interception.

On the 49ers' final series of regulation, which resulted in a field goal that sent the game to overtime, Garoppolo was twice lucky to avoid a game-losing interception. First, he threw a gift to K.J. Wright, who dropped the gimme pick.

What's particularly damning about that throw -- not that it needs to get anymore damning to be considered a bad throw -- is that Garoppolo had a man open. He just didn't see him.

The blue circle is where Garoppolo went with the ball. The red circle is where he should've gone.

A few plays later, Garoppolo did it again. He tried to throw away the game. This time, it was Bobby Wagner who refused the present.

We all know what happened next: The 49ers sent the game to overtime, Russell Wilson tried to give the game away in overtime with an awful red-zone pick, the 49ers missed a field goal, and eventually, at the death, Wilson led a game-winning drive to make the NFC West a whole lot more interesting with the Seahawks now only a game back of the 49ers. But the play that's been overshadowed by the chaos of overtime is the final offensive play the 49ers ran. On third down, with 1:42 remaining in overtime, from their own 20-yard line, Garoppolo had a chance to win the game, to seize the NFC West crown, and change the narrative. Deebo Samuel, streaking up the right sideline, burned Griffin. He wasn't wide open, but by NFL standards, he was open.

Garoppolo underthrew him, which allowed Griffin to recover and bat the ball away. Give Griffin credit for making a play on the ball. But if Garoppolo hits Samuel in stride, the 49ers might win the game with a walkoff 80-yard touchdown.

It wasn't an easy throw. It was deep, downfield, and in a high-leverage situation. But it's the kind of throw franchise quarterbacks earning $27.5 million per year are expected to make. Put it this way, if a quarterback like Mitchell Trubisky had missed that throw, he would've been crushed for it. The talk would've been about the underthrown pass instead of the great defensive play.

Again. Ball placement matters.

That wasn't his only downfield miss.

Jimmy Garoppolo was 3/18 (16.7%) for 59 yards and 1 INT on passes traveling 10+ last night.

It's the lowest completion % by any @NFL QB with at least 15 such attempts in a game this season.

(via @NFLResearch Next Gen Stats)
— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) November 12, 2019

To be clear, one game should not define a quarterback. Garoppolo is going to get more opportunities in big moments to prove himself -- in this season and beyond. He's not done writing his story. So, the criticism of him laid out in this space should not be construed as the definitive account of his career. Things change quickly in the NFL. All we can do is respond to what we've seen, try to predict what will come next, and then react accordingly when things don't proceed as predicted -- because, given the inherent chaotic nature of sports, they so rarely do.

But this is about more than just one game. Garoppolo sports a 16-3 record as a starting quarterback, but in those 19 games, Garoppolo has posted pedestrian numbers: a 66.6 completion percentage, 8.1 yards per attempt, a 29-to-16 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and a 96.3 passer rating. This season, he's completing 67.6 percent of his passes (10th), averaging 7.6 yards per attempt (14th) and 7.3 adjusted yards per attempt (17th), and throwing a touchdown on 5.1 percent of his passes (12th) and an interception on 2.9 percent of his passes (the sixth-highest rate). He ranks 15th in passer rating, 18th in DYAR, 19th in DVOA, and 12th in total QBR.

Again, those aren't bad numbers. Nobody should think Garoppolo is a bad quarterback. He isn't. He's fine. He's been good enough for the 49ers to win eight of their first nine games. And with the 49ers' defense playing this out of its mind, he's good enough to guide them to the Super Bowl.

But there might come a moment in say, December, when the 49ers head to Seattle to take on the Seahawks again, or in, say, January when the 49ers' defense isn't able to pitch a near-perfect game. It's in that moment that Garoppolo will need to play above the level he's played at for most of this year and his career. While Garoppolo has proven the ability, every so often, like he did on Halloween, to rise to that level, he hasn't done in consistently enough, in large part because he hasn't been asked to. That doesn't mean he's destined to fail come December or January. It just means the first 19 starts of his career have cast doubt on his ability to actually do it. In that sense, he's still a bit of a question mark six years after the Patriots drafted him with the intent of developing him as Brady's successor.

And that's the difference between the 49ers and the other Super Bowl contenders in the NFC. The Seahawks have Wilson -- put him on the 49ers and Garoppolo on the Seahawks, and the 49ers win on Monday night by three touchdowns. The Saints have Drew Brees. The Cowboys have Dak Prescott and the Eagles have Carson Wentz. The Packers have Aaron Rodgers. The Vikings have Kirk Cousins -- yes, Cousins is playing at a higher level than Garoppolo. Out of all the contenders in the conference, the 49ers have the biggest liability at quarterback. That's why you'll find Garoppolo positioned in the middle of the pack and below the rest of those aforementioned quarterbacks in this week's edition of quarterback power rankings.

Before we move onto the power rankings, a reminder of the rules.

One quarterback per team. Whichever quarterback started in Week 10 will be the quarterback selected. So you'll find Brian Hoyer listed for the Colts this week, not Jacoby Brissett.
Recent success matters more than past success. These are power rankings. That's why you won't see Tom Brady, the greatest quarterback of all time, at No. 1. We're valuing performances this season more than performances in previous seasons. We're valuing performances last week more than performances four weeks ago. As a result, don't be surprised if the rankings fluctuate in a major way each week.
But reputation and history do matter, because they're tools we're using to predict future success. All-time greats get a bit of a boost.
There's more to the rankings than wins and losses. Wins are not a quarterback stat. While we're definitely taking into account wins and losses, it's not the only thing that matters. You'll see a ton of other stats listed -- like DYAR, DVOA, and total QBR. For an explainer on those stats, click right here. Yes, the eye test matters too.

Onto the rankings.

QB rankings Week 11

1	Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens QB
So thoroughly dominant against the hapless Bengals, Jackson wore sunglasses in the fourth quarter instead of a helmet. Since an ugly outing against the Steelers back in Week 5, Jackson has averaged 191.3 passing yards and 98.5 rushing yards per game, and has scored nine total touchdowns in that span. There's not another quarterback in football who could've pulled off that run against the Bengals -- you know which one I'm talking about. John Harbaugh put it best. Jackson has changed the game. It was always going to take a really special string of performances to unseat Russell Wilson atop the leaderboard. Jackson did it. Last week: 2
2	Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs QB
It feels good to have Mahomes back in our lives. In a wacky loss to the Titans that required everything to go wrong for the Chiefs in the final minutes, Mahomes completed 72 percent of his passes for 446 yards and three scores. He made another one of those plays that only he is capable of, a jump-pass that looked more like a shortstop turning a double-play than a quarterback throwing a downfield dart from a crowded pocket. Mahomes needed one game to prove that he's still the best quarterback in football -- and if not for his two-game absence, he would lead this list. He's the league's top quarterback by DYAR, DVOA, and yards per attempt. Last week: N/A
3	Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks QB
By his standards, Wilson struggled on Monday night. His fumble led to a 49ers defensive touchdown. He threw an ugly red-zone pick in overtime. But against the league's second-best defense and the last remaining unbeaten team, Wilson still completed over 70 percent of his passes for 232 yards and a touchdown, and he eventually led a game-winning drive in overtime. Even when he wasn't at his best, he led the Seahawks to the biggest win of their season, on the road, against an unbeaten team. He's my pick for MVP after 10 weeks -- and I don't really expect that to change over the next month-and-a-half. But this isn't a ranking of MVP candidates. It's quarterback power rankings, which factors in recent performances more than anything else, and the two quarterbacks positioned ahead of Wilson submitted better outings in Week 10. So, Wilson falls. If the 49ers hadn't missed a field goal in overtime after Wilson's interception, this wouldn't be at all controversial. Last week: 1
4	Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys QB
Like Mahomes, Prescott can't be blamed for his team's loss. Play-calling and decision making from the coaching staff doomed him. Against Mike Zimmer's defense, Prescott threw for nearly 400 yards and three touchdowns. Ignore his interception, because it came on a Hail Mary. After nine games, Prescott ranks second in DYAR and DVOA behind only Mahomes, and he leads the league in total QBR. If only he had a coach who would go for fourth-and-shorts in one-score games and not call for running plays during the final sequences of what should've been a game-winning drive. Last week: 5
5	Deshaun Watson Houston Texans QB
Tough break for Watson to slip two spots when he was on his bye week. But if Watson leads the Texans to a win over Jackson and the Ravens, he'll move up the leaderboard. Last week: 3
6	Kirk Cousins Minnesota Vikings QB
We give Cousins a ton of flak when he loses in primetime to good teams, so let's give him credit for helping the Vikings go into Dallas and beat the Cowboys in primetime. Cousins wasn't the only reason why the Vikings won that game, but he completely nearly 72 percent of his passes, threw for 220 yards, two touchdowns, and a key two-point conversion, and didn't turn the ball over. It still feels like Cousins is underappreciated. It will remain that way until he achieves postseason success with the Vikings. But he's been the league's sixth best quarterback by DVOA. Last week: 10
7	Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers QB
Another meh outing for a still very good quarterback who hasn't hit the heights he last reached back in 2016. Rodgers hasn't been bad this year, but something is missing. In the Packers' past two games, Rodgers is averaging only 6.2 yards per attempt and has thrown only one touchdown, and the Packers have scored only 17.5 points per game. Last week: 7
8	Carson Wentz Philadelphia Eagles QB
Coming out of the Eagles' bye, Wentz gets the Patriots' defense. Good luck. Last week: 8
9	Drew Brees New Orleans Saints QB
Well, that was unexpected. Behind what is typically one of the league's better offensive lines and against one of the league's worst defenses, Brees was under siege. He got sacked six times. The Falcons entered the game with seven sacks on the season. Brees still threw for 287 yards without turning the ball over, but it was an all-around terrible performance by the Saints offense. Last week: 6
10	Tom Brady New England Patriots QB
It's been a pedestrian season for Brady so far, which hadn't mattered until the Patriots' loss to the Ravens because their defense had been really that good. Fortunately for Brady -- who, yes, has been dealing with bad offensive line play and a rotating cast of receivers -- the Patriots don't have to play the Ravens again until January (probably), so his meh level of play probably won't hinder the Patriots again -- and we all know what Brady is capable of once the playoffs begin. Brady ranks 11th in DYAR, 14th in both DVOA, and 13th in total QBR. Last week: 11
11	Derek Carr Oakland Raiders QB
Behind an offensive line that is playing well, Carr is thriving. He's thrown 10 more touchdowns than interceptions, and he's averaging a career-best 7.8 yards per attempt. Carr deserves credit for rejuvenating his career and maybe, just maybe, buying himself another season with the Raiders. Fun fact: Carr is third in DVOA, behind only Prescott and Mahomes. Last week: 13
12	Kyler Murray Arizona Cardinals QB
Murray continues to impress. Even though the Cardinals lost to the Buccaneers and Murray had a brutal interception in the fourth quarter, Murray still threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns. His interception snapped what is now the longest streak of passes a rookie quarterback has gone interception-less. It was his first pick since Week 4. Last week: 14
13	Ryan Tannehill Tennessee Titans QB
He led an expert final drive to stun the Chiefs. In four starts this year, he's completing 70 percent of his passes, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and has thrown eight touchdowns and three interceptions for a 107.5 passer rating. He deserves a chance to win a starting job next season -- whether it's in Tennessee or elsewhere -- and at this point, it's fair to wonder if the Dolphins' prior lack of success was more about Adam Gase than Tannehill. We used to think it was Tannehill holding back Gase. Now, it looks like it could be the reverse. Last week: 18
14	Jimmy Garoppolo San Francisco 49ers QB
He's not bad, but he's also not great. The concern is, if the 49ers' defense falters in the playoffs, will Garoppolo be able to carry the 49ers to a playoff win? He's fortunate he has Shanahan in his ear. Shanahan might just be a great enough play-caller to negate Garoppolo's shortcomings. Last week: 9
15	Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons QB
The Falcons' shocking win over the Saints was more about their defense than their quarterback. Ryan returned from an ankle injury to complete only 57.1 percent of his passes. Ryan hasn't been at his best this season, but he has been the 11th best quarterback by total QBR. So it hasn't been all bad -- just not what we're used to seeing out of the former MVP. I suspect he'll climb the leaderboard between now and January. Last week: N/A
16	Philip Rivers Los Angeles Chargers QB
His offensive line isn't doing him any favors, but Rivers is finally beginning to show signs of aging. He wasn't good against the Raiders on Thursday night as the Chargers continue to blow chance after chance to get back into the AFC West race. His attempted game-winning drive might go down as the worst one of the entire season. Last week: 12
17	Gardner Minshew Jacksonville Jaguars QB
This will likely be Minshew's final appearance on this list with Nick Foles set to make his return. I think the Jaguars are making a mistake to sit Minshew and I'm hopeful we'll see him again soon. He deserves a chance to start somewhere, if not in Jacksonville. Last week: 16
18	Kyle Allen Carolina Panthers QB
It was a resilient effort by Allen in a close loss to the Packers. Allen has been better than anyone could have reasonably expected when he stepped in for Cam Newton earlier this season, but I can't shake the feeling that his numbers from the past two weeks are more in line with the kind of quarterback he actually is: a great backup, but slightly below average starter. In his past two starts, he's completing 60 percent of his passes, averaging 7.2 yards per attempt, and has accumulated three touchdowns, two interceptions, and an 84.3 passer rating. Last week: 21
19	Ryan Fitzpatrick Miami Dolphins QB
Fitzpatrick did not play well against the Colts. But he helped the Dolphins win their second straight game. That's why he's ranked this high -- and also because the second half of this list is filled with quarterbacks not playing good football. Last week: 22
20	Baker Mayfield Cleveland Browns QB
Sure, Mayfield, who entered the week tied for the league lead in interceptions, didn't turn the ball over in a narrow win over the Bills, but he should've been picked off at least twice. Still, considering just how bad Mayfield has been this season, Sunday's performance might've actually been his best of the season. He posted the highest completion percentage (68.4), threw the most touchdowns (it was somehow his first two-touchdown game of the year), generated the highest passer rating (102.7) of his season. Again, given just how bad he's been, that's not necessarily saying much. And he averaged only 6.3 yards per attempt. But still, progress! Last week: 27
21	Daniel Jones New York Giants QB
Let's start with the good: The rookie threw for 308 yards and four touchdowns against a Jets defense that now sits at 11th by DVOA. Now, the bad: The Giants lost to the Jets, Jones was sacked six times, and he fumbled three times. He's already fumbled 13 times in nine games. Not great! Last week: 29
22	Sam Darnold New York Jets QB
I never really thought Darnold was the worst quarterback in football, but that's how poorly he was performing the past couple weeks. Finally, against a very bad Giants defense, Darnold broke out of his funk with 230 yards, two touchdowns (one rushing), and most importantly, no giveaways. But really, Darnold's rise from 32 to 23 is more about the quarterbacks listed behind him. They're all not great. And to be frank, he's been just as bad for most of the season too. I don't magically think he's good. I just think he had a better week than the quarterbacks to come. Last week: 32
23	Mason Rudolph Pittsburgh Steelers QB
The Steelers keep on winning (four straight), but it's not because of Rudolph. Still, by DVOA, Rudolph ranks 20th. DVOA isn't the be-all, end-all quarterback stat, but you know what? Everyone else on this portion of the list has been so bad that I'm pretty much forced to move him up. Last week: 28
24	Jared Goff Los Angeles Rams QB
I wish I could move Goff farther down the list, because he really hasn't played good football since a year ago, but the rest of the remaining quarterbacks makes it difficult to do so. Goff strung together a couple of good outings against two bad defenses before the Rams' bye week and then proceeded to morph right back into a not-good quarterback against a good Steelers defense, getting picked off twice and fumbling three times. So far this year, he looks more like Jeff Fisher Jared Goff than Sean McVay Jared Goff. Last week: 17
25	Jameis Winston Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB
It's the same performance almost every week. Some great throws and some truly awful decisions. The two are intrinsically linked. He's always willing to take chances and he has the physical traits to make them work a few times a game, but when they backfire, they turn into backbreaking turnovers. Last week: 20
26	Brandon Allen Denver Broncos QB
Drew Lock is nearing his return, but Allen will get the start against a tough Vikings defense on Sunday. It won't be long until we get to finally evaluate Lock. Last week: 26
27	Josh Allen Buffalo Bills QB
Allen is still the same erratic thrower, but dangerous runner he's always been. In a loss to the Browns, he repeatedly misfired (53.7 completion percentage), but ran for two touchdowns. He might be avoiding interceptions lately -- this was his fourth straight game without one -- but he can't stop fumbling. He's up to 11 on the season. Last week: 24
28	Mitchell Trubisky Chicago Bears QB
He made a couple great throws and that was enough to beat a Lions team missing Matthew Stafford. But that doesn't mean Trubisky is suddenly good. He's always had the ability to make a few great throws. He still lacks consistency, which the Bears desperately need out of their quarterback. Last week: 31
29	Jeff Driskel Detroit Lions QB
If the Lions had Stafford, they would've beaten the Bears. Alas, they had Driskel and Driskel did a lot of things one would expect of him. It's difficult to criticize Driskel too much given the circumstances. Don't blame him for struggling against a still good Bears defense. He's Jeff Driskel. Last week: N/A
30	Dwayne Haskins Washington Redskins QB
Haskins has seven weeks to convince the Redskins they don't need to draft another quarterback next year. It won't be easy given his supporting cast and something tells me the Redskins are going to make him hand the ball off a ton as they look to run out the clock on the season. Last week: 30
31	Ryan Finley Cincinnati Bengals QB
Did anyone expect the fourth-round rookie to have success against the Ravens on Sunday? Don't hold it against him. Give him time to showcase his potential in the final weeks of the season. It's going to be difficult given his supporting cast. Last week: N/A
32	Brian Hoyer Indianapolis Colts QB
Against the Dolphins, he threw three interceptions, all of which led to Dolphins points. The Colts ended up losing by four points. Put this loss on Hoyer and let's hope Jacoby Brissett is able to return this week. If not, the Colts might not be a factor in the AFC playoff picture for much longer. Last week: N/A