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Many observers didn't feel that the Alabama Crimson Tide deserved a place in the College Football Playoff, but the Tide won a wild first-round road game against the Oklahoma Sooners to secure a ticket to the Rose Bowl to take on the top-seeded Indiana Hoosiers. Coach Curt Cignetiti has powered Indiana to the forefront of the college football world, with Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza at the helm of one of the nation's best offenses. Alabama skipper Kalen DeBoer will have his hands full on New Year's Day. 

Kickoff at the Rose Bowl is set for 4 p.m. ET on Jan. 1. The Hoosiers are seven-point favorites in the latest SportsLine consensus Alabama vs. Indiana odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 48.5. Indiana is a -251 money line favorite (wager $251 to win $100), while the Crimson Tide are +205 underdogs. Before you make any Alabama vs. Indiana picks of your own, make sure you see the top college football picks from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every college football game 10,000 times.

Where to watch Alabama vs. Indiana on Thursday

When: Thursday, Jan. 1
Time: 4 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Stream: Fubo  
Follow along: CBS Sports App

Alabama vs. Indiana betting preview

Odds: Indiana -7, Over/Under 48.5

Indiana enters the Rose Bowl with the nation's fourth-best scoring offense at 41.9 points per game, behind just North Texas, Texas Tech and Notre Dame (the team that had the best claim to the spot Alabama claimed in the playoff). The Hoosiers are also elite on defense, having allowed the fourth-fewest yards per game (257.2) and second-fewest points per game (10.8). Mendoza's Heisman Trophy campaign resulted in 2,980 passing yards, 33 passing touchdowns, a 181.4 rating and an additional six scores on the ground. The standout quarterback is a candidate to go first overall in the upcoming NFL Draft. 

Alabama's output wasn't quite as explosive. The Crimson Tide averaged 380.1 yards per game on offense and scored 31.4 ppg. The Bama defense conceded 288.9 yards per game (13th in the nation) and 17.9 points per game (also 13th). Tide quarterback Ty Simpson is also expected to be a first-round pick. 

The Hoosiers are 8-5 against the spread this season, while the Tide are 9-5. Indiana is 8-5 to the Over and Alabama is 9-5 to the Under. Both teams have covered three of their last five games. Four of the last five Alabama games have gone Under.

Model's Alabama vs. Indiana score prediction, picks

The model expects a tight game. Indiana wins in just 51% of the model's simulations, making Alabama's +205 money line a valuable bet. The Crimson Tide cover in 63% of the simulations. The Over hits 53% of the time. 

The projected final score has Indiana winning by a single point.

Alabama vs. Indiana score prediction: Indiana 26, Alabama 25.

Want more college football picks?

You've seen the model's best bets for Alabama vs. Indiana. Now, get against the spread, total and money-line picks for every College Football playoff and bowl matchup here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times.