treveyon-henderson.jpg
Imagn Images

Two AFC East rivals meet as part of Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 11 of the 2025 season when the New York Jets head to Foxboro for a matchup with the New England Patriots. The Jets feel good after picking up their second win of the season while the Patriots are the hottest team in the NFL right now having won seven in a row. The run game is a big part of what each team wants to do, with New York leaning on Breece Hall and the Patriots finally getting a breakout game from rookie TreVeyon Henderson last week with a 147-yard and two-touchdown outburst against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

Is Hall, the unquestioned lead back in New York, the better running back to target when placing NFL player prop bets for Thursday Night Football? Or should you back the rookie Henderson after his massive outing against Tampa Bay and with Rhamondre Stevenson out again? With so many NFL player props for Jets vs. Patriots, we've used the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, to help identify the best player prop picks for Hall and Henderson. All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the SportsLine model's game forecast for Jets vs. Patriots, as well expert picks and best bets.

Carries props

Breece Hall: 16.5 (Over +102, Under  -136)
TreVeyon Henderson: 17.5 (Over +106, Under -140)

Top pick: TreVeyon Henderson Under 17.5 carries (3.5 stars)

Henderson has carried the ball 14 times across the Patriots' last two games, and he hasn't had more than 14 carries in a single game so far this year. While he's clearly New England's best back, the team does like to use Drake Maye in the run game, as well as Terrell Jennings. The model projects the rookie to carry the ball 11.3 times against New York.

Rushing yards props

Breece Hall: 57.5 (Over -114, Under -114)
TreVeyon Henderson: 79.5 (Over -114, Under -114)

Top pick: Breece Hall Over 57.5 rushing yards (3 stars)

The Jets' offense is down bad right now, especially with Garrett Wilson expected to miss time with a knee injury (he's out for Thursday). That means it's Hall's show. Hall has 18 or more carries in three of New York's last four games, and he's gone Over 57.5 rushing yards six times this year in nine games. The model projects Hall to rush for 64.4 yards against New England.