College Football Playoff power rankings: Ohio State is No. 1, Texas A&M better than its No. 7 seed
SportsLine college football betting expert Thomas Casale ranks the 12 College Football Playoff teams
The College Football Playoff kicks off this week with Alabama and Oklahoma playing on Friday, Dec. 19. Here is a look at how I have all 12 teams rated from a betting perspective heading into the playoff.
College Football Playoff power rankings
Ohio State is the top team heading into the playoff. The Buckeyes rank ahead of Indiana by the slimmest of margins. Yes, the Hoosiers won the head-to-head matchup in the Big Ten Championship. However, if the two teams meet again on a neutral field, I would still make the Buckeyes small favorites.
Ohio State would also open as a slight favorite over Georgia in a potential semifinal matchup. The Buckeyes stumbled late in the season but from a betting perspective, they are still the No. 1 team in the country.
2. Indiana Hoosiers
This isn't last season's Indiana team where the Hoosiers were a nice story under Curt Cignetti but no one thought they had a serious chance to win a title. Indiana proved it is a legitimate championship contender with the two best wins of the 2025 season at Oregon and over Ohio State on a neutral field.
The first time the Hoosiers played Ohio State, they were a 3.5-point underdogs. If they meet again, I would open Ohio State -1.5 or -2. FanDuel opened Indiana -8.5 over Oklahoma and -6.5 against Alabama in a potential quarterfinal matchup. I think both numbers are a little high and would expect them to go down once we know the opponent, especially if it's Alabama.
3. Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia is at No. 3 but keep in mind there isn't much of a dropoff from Ohio State to the Bulldogs. If we had a matchup of any of the top three, the spread would be a point or two either way. I would make Indiana-Georgia close to a pick.
The Bulldogs will likely face Ole Miss in the quarterfinal with a potential heavyweight showdown against Ohio State waiting in the semifinal. Similar to Indiana, I would make Georgia a small 1.5 or 2-point underdog in that matchup.
I think Texas A&M is under-seeded at No. 7. I would make the Aggies slight favorites over every team ranked below them in the playoff on a neutral field. It may not seem like a big deal but Texas A&M drew a tough road at No. 7 because the Aggies would have to play Ohio State in the quarterfinal if they beat Miami.
The Aggies are 3.5-point favorites at home over Miami in the first round. I think that number is a little short. FanDuel's lookahead line against Ohio State is 7.5. That's a little high. I would make the Aggies closer to +5 in what would be a very dangerous game for the No. 2 seed.
Texas Tech is a team that can do some damage in the playoff because the Red Raiders have elite offensive and defensive lines. The Red Raiders' defense ranks second in the country in stuff rate, just behind Indiana. A potential semifinal matchup between Texas Tech and the Hoosiers would be a bloodbath between two of the best defenses in college football.
I like the draw for the Red Raiders. I make them favorites over Oregon in a likely second round matchup. I also think Texas Tech matches up well against Indiana. Texas Tech at +310 to reach the National Championship isn't a bad bet right now.
6. Oregon Ducks
Oregon is an interesting team because the Ducks' best win this season was at home over USC. In its toughest game of the season, Oregon lost by double digits at home to Indiana. I think the Ducks being a No. 5 seed in the CFP is generous.
Oregon will likely face Texas Tech in the quarterfinal. FanDuel set an early line for that matchup, making the Ducks +1.5. I would make the line the exact same although I won't be surprised if money comes in on the Red Raiders, pushing that line even higher.
7. Alabama Crimson Tide
The Crimson Tide haven't looked good of late but I would still make them small favorites over a lot of the teams in the field. The market agrees with that assessment because Alabama opened -1.5 at Oklahoma. I also believe the Tide would open as favorites over Ole Miss and Miami.
We can argue whether or not Alabama should be in the playoff but that is now irrelevant. The bottom line is if the Crimson Tide beat Oklahoma, they are a dangerous second round opponent for Indiana. I mentioned above the lookahead line of Indiana -6.5 is a little high. I think that ends up being closer to -4.
8. Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss is the toughest team in the playoff to evaluate for obvious reasons. Head coach Lane Kiffin left for LSU, so we will have to see how the Rebels respond in the first round. Luckily for Ole Miss, it opens with a Tulane team it beat 45-10 earlier this season.
Assuming the Rebels win as big favorites, they would face Georgia. The two teams met in October with the Bulldogs winning 43-35 at home. However, the Rebels led for most of that game before being outscored 17-0 in the fourth quarter.
The lookahead line at FanDuel for a potential rematch is Ole Miss +5.5. That's a tricky game for the Bulldogs because the teams know each other so well.
9. Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma gets a home game in the first round against an Alabama team it beat 23-21 earlier this season. The Crimson Tide are small road favorites and I agree with the line. While Oklahoma is dangerous because of its top ranked defense, the Sooners would still be underdogs on a neutral field against the eight teams ranked ahead of them.
Not only are the Sooners home dogs in the first round, FanDuel makes Indiana -8.5 on the lookahead line should Oklahoma get by Alabama. We'll see if the Sooners can prove people wrong but they will almost certainly be underdogs in any game they play moving forward.
10. Miami Hurricanes
Miami got the nod over Notre Dame and I'm not here to debate which team should be in the field. For those wondering though, I would make the Irish around -2 over Miami on neutral field right now.
My issue with Miami is it keeps pointing to the Notre Dame win. That was back in August. Since then, the Hurricanes lost two games in the weak ACC. The two toughest opponents Miami faced since September were SMU and Louisville. It lost to both teams.
There is no denying the Canes have talent, so maybe they pull it all together and make a run in the playoff. The betting market doesn't see it. Miami is a 3.5-point underdog at Texas A&M and +9.5 against Ohio State in the quarterfinal on the lookahead line.
11. Tulane Green Wave
Tulane is a big underdog against Ole Miss in the first and FanDuel doesn't give the Green Wave much of a chance of pulling an upset considering there is no lookahead line against Georgia in a potential quarterfinal matchup. I have the Green Wave ranked ahead of James Madison because they played a tougher schedule with wins over Duke and North Texas.
12. James Madison Dukes
Not surprisingly, James Madison comes in at 12. The Dukes are over three touchdown underdogs at Oregon and made the playoff because the ACC was a joke this season. It's nice that James Madison gets to be part of the field but its stay in the CFP won't be a long one.
