2020 Outlook: Nick Chubb
If we drafted solely on talent, Nick Chubb would be an easy top-five pick. But because he's on a Browns roster with Kareem Hunt, concerns about him getting a huge workload pushes his Fantasy value down a little. We saw it last season - in eight games without Hunt, Chubb averaged 22.4 touches and 18.0 PPR Fantasy points per game (14.9 in non-PPR). With Hunt for the other eight, Chubb saw 5.7 fewer PPR points, 4.0 fewer non-PPR points and 3.0 fewer touches per game (mostly in the passing game) with a steep drop in work over his final five. Because we can't count on Chubb getting elite running backs touches, especially in the passing game, he shouldn't be on that level in PPR leagues and is just behind them in non-PPR. There's still plenty of potential, but his upside is capped until he's locked into a full-time mega-role, which could happen occasionally but not every week. Want him in Round 1? You can get away with it in a non-PPR league, but closer to 12th overall than, say, fifth. He's a much safer pick in Round 2, especially in PPR. If opportunity meets talent, as it did to start last season, he'd be a league-winner.