Fantasy Football 2023 Draft Prep: Updated Tiers & Strategies pushes WR toward the top of PPR drafts

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The decision that will drive your wide receiver strategy in PPR will be based on how you feel about Tier 1 running backs (like Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler and even Bijan Robinson) and Tier 1 tight ends (Travis Kelce and absolutely no one else). If you crave one of them, you're probably passing up a shot at a Tier 1 receiver (you may be able to snag one with an early Round 2 pick but don't count on it).

Otherwise, you're not just playing it safe by taking a receiver in Round 1, you're also playing the odds that you'll score more Fantasy points with that pick.

Dave's Tiers: QB | RB | TE | K/DST

The most popular positions in Fantasy are running backs and wide receivers, and there's been a tug-of-war between them for Fantasy supremacy for years. The war has been won, for now, by receivers, but that's ONLY if your league counts receptions for anything. In Point Per Reception (PPR) formats, your decision to go with a receiver or a running back in Round 1 might be made easier after checking this out:

2022	WR	RB
Players with 20+ PPR per game average	4	2
Players with 15+ PPR per game average	13	10
Players with 11+ PPR per game average	39	30
PPR per-game average of top-12	17.0	16.6
PPR per-game average of 13-24	12.9	11.8

In five different meaningful categories, receivers outperformed running backs in 2022.

It was even more in favor of receivers in 2021 -- the top-12 wideouts averaged 17.3 PPR points per game compared to 15.0 for running backs, and the No. 2 wideouts averaged 13.3 PPR points per game versus 11.0 for their rushing counterparts. Injuries obviously play a role every year, but it's correctly assumed that running backs are more fragile than wide receivers.

So in PPR leagues, receivers are kings in the first few rounds.

But in leagues where catches don't count, they're not there and may never be.

2022	WR	RB
Players with 15+ NON per game average	0	4
Players with 11+ NON per game average	9	16
Players with 9+ NON per game average	20	29
NON per-game average of top-12	11.7	13.7
NON per-game average of 13-24	9	10.3

It's the exact opposite of the PPR chart, which is kind of obvious since the receptions that receivers ultimately need in order to produce numbers don't count for squat, and the touchdowns and yardage that the top running backs get dominate pass-catchers. It's much easier to go with a running back in Round 1, if not Rounds 1 and 2, in non-PPR leagues.

Once you get into the early-middle rounds, taking receivers is based less on want and more on what else is available to you. Not many people go into a draft getting psyched for wideouts in Rounds 4 through 6. Sometimes you draft starters there because you pick up studs at other positions earlier. I'd argue that the receivers in that range are mostly as intriguing as the running backs there, but not as alluring as the quarterbacks you could find.

Where receivers really win out are in Rounds 7 through 10. It's not so much about the depth there as it is about the potential starters you'll find compared to most other players regardless of position. Like, if I had to get a starter or two for my team in Rounds 7 through 10, the position with the easiest-to-accept choices is definitely wide receiver. This is something you could weave into your strategy -- almost assume you'll be OK finding that WR3, if not a low-end WR2 if you're a little desperate -- in that range.

The reason for this? The league's offenses are spreading the ball around, creating opportunities for plenty of non-No. 1 targets to rake in 60 or 70 yards on four or five catches. You will find wideouts who could pick up those kinds of numbers on waivers from week to week unless you're in a league with deep benches. It's why when I draft, I barely have any wide receiver depth -- I can find guys when I need them off the waiver wire. I'd rather spend the majority of my picks on running backs and hope I hit a lottery ticket.

DAVE'S FAVORITE STRATEGY AT WR: I won't pass up any player that carries sky-high upside, be it any position in any round. But once those players are gone (and they're usually gone very quickly), I'll lean toward taking a wide receiver only if there isn't a player at a different position I need desperately to fill a lineup spot. Then once I have four or five receivers, I'm not picking any more unless it's someone with big-time upside right at the start of the season.

Wide receiver PPR tiers (updated 8/4)

Round 1

Tier 1

J. Jefferson MIN Justin Jefferson MIN

J. Chase CIN Ja'Marr Chase CIN

C. Kupp SEA Cooper Kupp SEA

T. Hill MIA Tyreek Hill MIA

S. Diggs NE Stefon Diggs NE

Round 2

Tier 2

C. Lamb DAL CeeDee Lamb DAL

D. Adams LAR Davante Adams LAR

A. Brown PHI A.J. Brown PHI

A. St. Brown DET Amon-Ra St. Brown DET

G. Wilson NYJ Garrett Wilson NYJ

Round 3

Tier 3

J. Waddle MIA Jaylen Waddle MIA

D. Smith PHI DeVonta Smith PHI

T. Higgins CIN Tee Higgins CIN

C. Olave NO Chris Olave NO

J. Jeudy CLE Jerry Jeudy CLE

K. Allen LAC Keenan Allen LAC

D. Moore CHI DJ Moore CHI

C. Ridley TEN Calvin Ridley TEN

Round 4-5

Tier 4

D. Hopkins BAL DeAndre Hopkins BAL

D. Samuel WAS Deebo Samuel WAS

C. Watson GB Christian Watson GB

D. Metcalf PIT DK Metcalf PIT

A. Cooper LV Amari Cooper LV

T. McLaurin WAS Terry McLaurin WAS

D. Johnson CLE Diontae Johnson CLE

Round 6

Tier 5

D. London ATL Drake London ATL

C. Kirk HOU Christian Kirk HOU

M. Williams LAC Mike Williams LAC

C. Godwin TB Chris Godwin TB

M. Brown KC Marquise Brown KC

B. Aiyuk SF Brandon Aiyuk SF

T. Lockett LV Tyler Lockett LV

M. Evans TB Mike Evans TB

Round 7-8

Tier 6

G. Pickens DAL George Pickens DAL

M. Pittman IND Michael Pittman IND

J. Dotson PHI Jahan Dotson PHI

G. Davis BUF Gabe Davis BUF

J. Addison MIN Jordan Addison MIN

J. Smith-Schuster KC JuJu Smith-Schuster KC

M. Thomas NO Michael Thomas NO

Z. Flowers BAL Zay Flowers BAL

J. Smith-Njigba SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA

S. Moore SF Skyy Moore SF

Round 9

High-end Backups

B. Cooks BUF Brandin Cooks BUF

J. Williams DET Jameson Williams DET

T. Burks WAS Treylon Burks WAS

R. Moore MIN Rondale Moore MIN

Round 10

Solid Backups

E. Moore DEN Elijah Moore DEN

R. Bateman BAL Rashod Bateman BAL

J. Meyers JAC Jakobi Meyers JAC

C. Sutton DEN Courtland Sutton DEN

A. Thielen PIT Adam Thielen PIT

R. Doubs GB Romeo Doubs GB

Q. Johnston LAC Quentin Johnston LAC

K. Toney CLE Kadarius Toney CLE

Round 11+

Bench Depth

I. Hodgins NYG Isaiah Hodgins NYG

N. Collins HOU Nico Collins HOU

J. Metchie III NYJ John Metchie III NYJ

O. Beckham Jr. MIA Odell Beckham Jr. MIA

A. Lazard NYJ Allen Lazard NYJ

D. Chark ATL DJ Chark ATL

J. Mingo DAL Jonathan Mingo DAL

Wide receiver non-PPR tiers (updated 8/4)