2020 MLB divisional odds, NL Central predictions, best bets: Proven computer model fading Reds

SportsLine's advanced computer model simulated the entire 2020 MLB schedule 10,000 times.

By CBS Sports Staff

Mar 28, 2020 at 2:23 pm ET • 2 min read

The coronavirus pandemic has shut down Major League Baseball temporarily, but sportsbooks still have their 2020 MLB divisional odds posted. In the NL Central, the Cubs and Reds are currently tied as +200 favorites (risk $100 to win $200), but the Cardinals and Brewers are also viewed as serious threats, with St. Louis listed at +240 and Milwaukee at +550. Meanwhile, the Pirates are listed as serious long shots at +30000 in the latest 2020 NL Cental odds.

With the top four teams so tightly-clustered, this could be one of the most compelling divisional races of the season. Can new manager David Ross help turn around Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and the rest of the Cubs or will Jack Flaherty help lead the Cardinals to a second consecutive title? Before you make your 2020 MLB picks on who wins every division, be sure to check out the 2020 NL Central predictions and best bets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and anyone who followed it last season saw huge returns. The model went 370-291 on its top-rated money line and run-line picks, returning more than $1,400 to $100 bettors.

Moreover, the model went a stunning 14-5 on its strongest MLB win total picks and went 4-1 on its five best MLB over-under bets. Now, the model has crunched the numbers on the upcoming season and released its MLB picks to win the NL Central in 2020. You can only see them at SportsLine.

The model's top 2020 NL Central picks

The model says the Reds are dramatically overvalued at +200 in the latest 2020 NL Central odds and win the division in just 18.2 percent of simulations.

The public is justifiably excited about Cincinnati's pitching staff, with Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Anthony DeSclafani now joined by offseason signing Wade Miley, but this is still a team that won just 75 games in 2019 and finished 16 games back of the division winners.

Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama are strong additions to the lineup, but there's still a lot of pressure on Eugenio Suarez to produce monster numbers in the middle of the order now that Joey Votto is a shell of himself offensively. And while his barrel rate was up from 9.7 percent to 14.0 percent from 2018 to 2019, his average exit velocity was down from 91.2 mph to 89.4 mph.

The Reds should show improvement, but with the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals all still in position to contend, it could be difficult for Cincinnati to close the gap and leapfrog all three teams.

How to make MLB divisional picks on 2020 NL Central odds

The model also says one team has a win probability that dramatically exceeds its implied odds. So before you scan the 2020 NL Central odds and make your 2020 MLB divisional picks, be sure to see it here.

Which team is the best value in 2020 NL Central futures? And what does the model say about the 2020 MLB divisional odds of every team in the NL Central? Visit SportsLine right now to see projected win totals, divisional odds, and playoff odds for every team in the NL Central all from an uncanny computer model that crushed its MLB win total picks last year.