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The Texas Tech Red Raiders finally get back on the field Thursday when they face the Oregon Ducks in a College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup in the Orange Bowl. The Red Raiders (12-1) are the No. 4 seed but have not played a game since the Big 12 Championship on Dec. 6, when they beat BYU for a second time this season. The No. 5 Ducks (12-1) tuned up with a 51-34 victory against James Madison in the first round on Dec. 20. The winner of this game will face the Indiana-Alabama winner in a semifinal on Jan. 9 in the Peach Bowl. 

Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium is set for Noon ET on New Year's Day. The Ducks are 2.5-point favorites in the latest SportsLine consensus Texas Tech vs. Oregon odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 51.5. Oregon is a -134 money line favorite (bet $134 to win $100), while the Red Raiders are +112 underdogs. Before you make any Texas Tech vs. Oregon picks of your own, make sure you see the top college football picks from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every college football game 10,000 times.

Where to watch Oregon vs. Texas Tech on Thursday

When: Thursday, Jan. 1
Time: Noon ET
TV: ESPN
Stream: Fubo  
Follow along: CBS Sports App

Oregon vs. Texas Tech betting preview

Odds: Oregon -2.5, Over/Under 51.5

Texas Tech has the nation's second-best scoring offense, averaging 42.5 points per game, and also ranks second in scoring defense (10.8 ppg). The Ducks are in the top 10 on both offense (19 ppg) and defense (16.3 ppg). Oregon had the tougher road to get here, with TTU's best wins against Utah and BYU twice and the loss coming against Arizona State. The Ducks beat then-No. 3 Penn State and have top-25 victories against USC and Iowa, with their only loss to CFP top seed Indiana. Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton missed the Arizona State loss with a knee injury but he leads an offense that averages 289.4 passing yards per game (ninth in FBS). Morton has 2,643 passing yards with 22 touchdowns and four interceptions despite missing two full games and parts of two others. Oregon counterpart Dante Moore has 3,046 passing yards with 28 TDs and eight interceptions, throwing for at least 250 in his past four games. Texas Tech leads the nation with 31 takeaways and is plus-17 in turnover margin, while Oregon has 17 (T-53) and is plus-6. 

Texas Tech is 12-1 against the spread this season, while Oregon is 8-5. The teams last met in 2023, a 38-20 Ducks victory in Lubbock. The Red Raiders have lost all three meetings between the teams, with the others coming in 1991 (16-13) and '92 (28-13). Oregon has relied more on its high-powered offense, so it has seen some higher totals and is 7-6 to the Over while TTU's defense has kept scores low, and the Red Raiders have gone Under in eight of their 13 games. The total has gone Under in eight of Tech's past 12 games when it was the underdog. Neither team has been good against the spread in January, with Oregon 2-4 ATS in its past six in the month and TTU 1-4 in its past five.

Model's Oregon vs. Texas Tech score prediction, picks

The Ducks are winning in 61% of the SportsLine Projection Model's simulations and are covering 58% of the time. The Over comes in at a 57% clip, with the model showing both teams scoring more than 25 points. The Red Raiders have failed to reach 29 points once all season -- in the loss to ASU with their starting QB out -- and Oregon has been held under 29 four times. The Sagarin Ratings put Oregon at 14th in strength of schedule and Texas Tech 68th, so the competition level is a factor in evaluating this matchup.


Oregon vs. Texas Tech score prediction: Oregon 32, Texas Tech 26

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