diego-pavia-vanderbilt-commodores-imagn-images.jpg
Imagn Images

One of the most intriguing storylines of the 2025 college football season is that we could be headed toward one of the closest Heisman trophy battles in the sport's history. We head into championship weekend with no clear front-runner, and the results of this weekend's games will likely determine the winner.

We are far removed from the summer days when the college football future odds featured Texas quarterback Arch Manning as the clear favorite with odds of around +450, and Clemson signal-caller Cade Klubnik second at around +700.

Lackluster performances by Manning in losses to Ohio State and Oklahoma eliminated him early, while Clemson lost three of its first four on its way to barely salvaging a bowl-eligible season.

Current favorites Julian Sayin (+200) of Ohio State was on the pre-season radar with odds about +2500, as was Indiana's Fernando Mendoza (+155), but both were considered longshots because they were transfers who had never played a down with their current teams. Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia (+185) barely registered on the radar because it was widely believed his team success wouldn't be enough to overcome candidate from the higher-profile programs.

Full disclosure: We watched Pavia's first few starts at New Mexico State in 2022 and wondered if he even belonged at the FBS level. His contribution to leading forever-moribund Vanderbilt into a 10-win team and playoff contender is nothing short of astounding and one of the better stories the sport has witnessed in recent years.

But even so, here we are, with a prevailing narrative that Indiana vs. Ohio State on Saturday will not only determine the Big Ten champion but likely the Heisman trophy winner. How accurate is this premise? Extremely likely, in our opinion. 

Heisman Trophy odds entering championship week

Odds via FanDuel

Does the Big Ten title game determine Heisman winner?

The knock on Sayin is that he hasn't been required to do much amid a relatively meager schedule and lacks the "Heisman moment" that Mendoza possesses. Still, Sayin's three-touchdown performance against rival Michigan prevented the Wolverines from playing spoiler, and he has been a beacon of consistency.

Mendoza's aforementioned Heisman moment came with his dramatic last-minute touchdown pass to Omar Cooper to give the Hoosiers a 27-24 win over an inspired Penn State club and kept their undefeated season intact. Should he lead Indiana, a 4.5-point underdog, to a win over Ohio State on Saturday, we'd have to think he takes home coveted prize. Likewise, if Sayin makes some key plays in a Buckeyes' victory, he would have to emerge as the front-runner.

However, if this is something of a choppy, defense-dominated game that ends in the 16-13 range with neither quarterback shining, Pavia could be a legitimate default choice.

Pavia's Heisman resume is more like a greatest-hits compilation as opposed to one definitive moment, but it is quite the mixtape. College football fans watched the resilient and brash playmaker take down traditional powers such as LSU and Tennessee with numerous big plays, while pushing Alabama and Texas to the wire. No singular player has meant more to his program, and the Commodores are on the doorstep of a playoff invitation.

We believe voters will likely lean toward the QB on the winning side of the Big Ten Championship Game, so we will side with Sayin, but recent results suggest voters are giving a much fairer shake to players from lesser-esteemed programs.

Are we headed to another razor-thin vote?

For instance, last year Colorado two-way star Travis Hunter closed as a massive netting favorite with odds of around -1000 at most sportsbooks. Hunter won the award with 2,131 total points, but the 214-point difference is the smallest margin of victory since Alabama running back Mark Ingram beat out Stanford RB Toby Gerhart in 2009.

The runner up? Boise State jitterbug RB Ashton Jeanty, who spent some of the season as the betting favorite but lost some ground as Hunter regularly dazzled audiences with his two-way prowess and registered three games in which he had at least 10 receptions on offense and an interception on defense.

Regardless, there should be some legitimate suspense when we tune in to the Heisman ceremony next weekend, and that dynamic alone is a win for college football fans.