Breaking down NFL playoff picture, plus Week 14 grades and Eagles-Chargers predictions for Monday night

Denver Broncos v Las Vegas Raiders - NFL 2025

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Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

It took nine years, but the Chiefs have finally been knocked out of the top spot in the AFC West: Following their loss to the Texans on Sunday night, the Chiefs have officially been eliminated from winning the division title. The last time a team that wasn't the Chiefs won the division came back in 2015 when Peyton Manning led the Broncos to a Super Bowl win. This year, the Broncos will be hoping the season ends the same way.

If you missed Kansas City's loss on Sunday night, it was ugly: Patrick Mahomes went just 14 of 33 for 160 yards with three interceptions.

It was his only career game with zero passing touchdowns and at least three interceptions
He finished with the worst passer rating (19.8) of his career
He finished with the lowest completion percentage of his career (42%)
He threw 10 straight incompletions at one point, which was the longest streak in career

The Chiefs' playoff hopes aren't officially dead yet, but they're certainly on life support. We'll be handing out grades from the Texans-Chiefs game, plus we have some overreactions and some predictions for tonight's game between the Chargers and Eagles.

As always, here's your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown.

1. NFL Week 14 grades: Steelers and Packers earn solid marks for big divisional wins

Chicago Bears v Green Bay Packers - NFL 2025 — Getty Images

Welcome to my favorite part of the Monday newsletter, which is where I hand out grades for all 32 teams. Actually, there were four teams that had a bye this week and two more teams play tonight, so I guess I only handed out 26 grades.

With that in mind, here are the grades from three notable games that were played Sunday:

Steelers 27-22 over Ravens (full recap)

Steelers takeaway: Aaron Rodgers finally figured out how to get the Steelers offense going: Just throw the ball to DK Metcalf. Rodgers threw for 284 yards and 148 of that went to Metcalf, including a 52-yard pass on Pittsburgh's first play from scrimmage that set the offensive tone for the game. Defensively, the Steelers almost always go a good job slowing down Lamar Jackson and that was the case here: The Ravens QB got sacked twice and James Pierre came up with a huge interception in the first half that set up a Steelers touchdown. The Steelers (7-6) don't win pretty, but they do win, and that's all that matters. With this victory, they now have control of the AFC North. Grade: B
Ravens takeaway: It might be time to file a missing person's report for the Ravens offense. Lamar Jackson is struggling, Derrick Henry can't find room to run and an offense that used to be the most explosive in the NFL has turned into a shell of itself. The Ravens offense struggled early and although it did turn things around by piling up 217 rushing yards, most of that went to waste, because Baltimore couldn't score in the red zone. In the fourth quarter alone, the Ravens got inside of Pittsburgh's 20-yard line on three different drives, but they came away with zero touchdowns. The AFC North is still within reach, but the Ravens are going to need to get their offense straightened out if they want to have a chance to win the division. Grade: C

Packers 28-21 over Bears (full recap)

Bears takeaway: The Bears have been a good team all season, but to make the jump to great, this was a game they needed to win and they weren't quite able to pull it off. The roller-coaster ride that is Caleb Williams was on full display against the Packers: The Bears QB made several spectacular plays, but he also made several errant throws, including a game-ending interception on a fourth-and-1 in the red zone. Defensively, the Bears played reasonably well, but they couldn't get off the field on third down, letting the Packers convert 8 of their 12 attempts (Three of Green Bay's four touchdowns came on third down). The Bears are now 0-2 against the Lions and Packers this year and they're going to have to figure out how to get over that hump if they want to have any chance of winning the division. Grade: B-
Packers takeaway: For the second straight week, the Packers were in a huge divisional showdown, and for the second straight week Jordan Love delivered an impressive performance with 234 yards and three touchdowns. The Packers QB got off to a rough start with an early interception, but he caught fire in the second quarter, throwing for 115 yards and two touchdowns. Although the offense moved the ball well, the defense almost gave the game away during a second half where the Bears were able to move the ball at will. The Packers had trouble stopping the run in the second half, which allowed Chicago to chip away at the lead. The Bears might have even tied the game if not for a game-sealing interception by Keisean Nixon. If you're the Packers, you have to be mildly concerned at how the defense played late in the game. On the other hand, the Packers probably aren't worried about much of anything right now after taking control of the NFC North with this win. Grade: B+

Texans 20-10 over Chiefs (full recap)

Texans takeaway: It's not every day you see a defense manhandle the Chiefs offense, but that's exactly what Houston did on Sunday night. The Texans have great players at every level of their defense and that was on display in Kansas City: Up front, the pass rush got eight hits on Patrick Mahomes and that led to two sacks. In the secondary, Kamari Lassiter recorded six tackles while coming up with one of Houston's three interceptions. Offensively, all the Texans had to do was not give the game away and they were able to handle that. Woody Marks (76 total yards, 1 TD) and Nico Collins (121 yards receiving) combined for 197 of Houston's 268 yards and that was all the Texans needed. This is a Super Bowl-caliber defense and if the the Texans (8-5) can find a way into the playoffs, they could be dangerous. Grade: B
Chiefs takeaway: The Chiefs have watched Patrick Mahomes save the day so many times that it seemed destined to happen once again on Sunday night, but instead, the Texans defense landed a knockout punch on the Chiefs. Mahomes struggled against Houston, throwing for just 160 yards with three interceptions, but he also got no help from his teammates, who dropped a total of six passes. Two of those drops came from Travis Kelce, including a back-breaking drop in the fourth quarter that led to a game-sealing interception for Houston. Basically, the Chiefs didn't make the plays that we've become accustomed to seeing them make in crunch time. Andy Reid also made an aggressive decision to go for it on fourth down from his own 31-yard line in the fourth quarter. After the Chiefs failed, the Texans took over and ended up scoring what proved to be the game-winning touchdown. The Chiefs look old this year: They look a step slow, they've been sloppy at times and the offensive firepower hasn't been there since the calendar hit November. At 6-7, it's looking more and more like the Chiefs are going to miss the playoffs for the first time in Mahomes' career. Grade: C-

As for the other 20 grades we handed out in Week 14, you can check those out by clicking here.

2. Overreactions from Week 14: Are Colts and Ravens done?

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Tyler Sullivan decided to take a look at several things that happened in Week 14 to decide if we're all overreacting.

Statement: Colts' season is over after Daniel Jones' injury.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. Jones suffered an Achilles injury in Sunday's loss to Jacksonville, and If he's done for the year, the injury could bring the Colts down with it. Indianapolis had rookie Riley Leonard as the backup quarterback on Sunday, and it'd be a tall task to ask him to win out down the stretch against teams like the Seahawks (Week 15), 49ers (Week 16), Jaguars (Week 17), and Texans (Week 18). The Colts are now at legitimate risk of falling out of the playoffs entirely. Even if they squeak in, they won't make much noise.

Statement: Packers are going to run away with the NFC North.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. Yes, Green Bay is back atop the division after Sunday's win over Chicago, but it still feels like there is a lot to be determined in the NFC North. There is still one more game between the Packers and the Bears in Week 16, so this was merely Part 1 of this division rivalry. Before that game, the Packers will have to travel to Denver to face the Broncos in Week 15, while the Bears will face the Browns at home. If Green Bay were to lose next week and the Bears beat Cleveland, we're looking at another high-stakes matchup, only this time at Soldier Field. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions are still a factor at 8-5, so there is still plenty that needs to be sorted out before we start handing out NFC North champion T-shirts and hats.

Statement: Ravens are going to miss the playoffs.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. Baltimore is at real risk of missing the postseason despite their previous surge back into the conversation. The club has now lost two in a row and has a daunting final four games: at Bengals (Week 15), vs. Patriots (Week 16), at Packers (Week 17), and at Steelers (Week 18). That's much tougher than Pittsburgh's final slate, so this division could be wrapped up before we get to that regular-season finale. Outside of the division race, the Ravens are on the wrong side of several key head-to-head tiebreakers (Buffalo, Houston, and Chiefs), so that avenue to the playoffs as a wild card entry is arguably even more difficult.

There are plenty more overreactions, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here.

3. 10 wild stats from Week 14: Shedeur Sanders pulls off rare feat

Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some wild stats about the games that were just played.

With that in mind, here are 10 crazy stats from Week 14:

Shedeur Sanders joins exclusive club. The Browns rookie QB finished with 364 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown, making him just the second rookie in the Super Bowl era to have a game with at least 350 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown. The only other rookie QB to pull off that feat was Joe Burrow in 2020.
Steelers pull off an inexplicable win. The Steelers beat the Ravens despite being outrushed for 183 yards (217-34). This marks just the third time over the past 75 years that the Steelers have won a game where they were outrushed by at least 170 yards. The twist here is that all three of those wins have come against the Ravens.
Vikings pull off a rarity, Part I. Minnesota beat the Commanders 31-0 on Sunday, which came one week after the Vikings got shut out themselves in a 26-0 loss to Seattle. That makes the Vikings the first team since the 1992 Broncos to follow a shutout loss with a shutout win.
Vikings pull off a rarity, Part II. During their win over the Commanders, the Vikings had a 19-play, 98-yard drive that lasted for 12:01. It was the first drive since Week 17 of the 2011 season that a drive went longer than 12 minutes. That last team to pull that off was the Dolphins.
Comeback kids. The Bills trailed by 10 points in the fourth quarter, but they were able to beat the Bengals after scoring 21 points in the final period. The Bills also won in Week 1 with 22 fourth-quarter points despite trailing by more than 10 points in final quarter. That makes the Bills just the third team in NFL history to overcome multiple double-digit deficits in the fourth quarter by exploding for at least 21 points. The Bills join the 1987 Rams and 2001 Dolphins.
Road warrior. With Seattle's win over the Falcons, Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald now has 13 road wins, which is tied for the second-most in NFL history by a second-year coach. The record of 16 is held by former 49ers coach George Seifert. With two more road games this year, Macdonald could get up to 15 before the playoffs, and he could potentially pass Seifert if the Seahawks play multiple road games in the postseason.
Texans defense is legit. The Houston defense hasn't allowed a single team to top 225 passing yards against them this year, making the Texans the first team in 40 years to hold each of their opponents under 225 yards through their first 13 games.
Seahawks rookie is on a roll. Nick Emmanwori became just the fourth rookie over the past 25 years to record both a blocked kick and an interception in the same game. Before Emmanwori came along, it hadn't happened since Denzel Ward did it with the Browns in 2018. Before that, no rookie had pulled off the feat since 2002. Emmanwori pulled off the feat in Seattle's 37-9 win over the Falcons.
Aaron Rodgers is looking spry. The Steelers 42-year-old QB scored on a rushing touchdown against the Ravens and along with his one passing touchdown, he now has 32 career games with both a passing TD and a rushing TD. That moves him out of a tie with Steve Young for the third-most all time. The record, of course, is held by Josh Allen. The Bills QB has now done it 50 times after recording three passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown against the Bengals on Sunday.
Raiders have hit rock bottom. The Raiders offense had another ugly game. In their loss to the Broncos, the Raiders only rushed for 40 yards and their offensive line gave up four sacks. That makes the Raiders the first team ever in the Super Bowl era to give up at least four sacks while also rushing for less than 75 yards in five straight games. There have been some bad offenses in that span and the Raiders now look like one of the worst.

If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me.

4. Breaking down the NFL playoff picture: Bears fall six spots in NFC standings

Since the calendar has now hit December, it seems like a good time to start breaking down the playoff picture, so that's what we're going to start doing in this spot every Monday.

Here's where the NFL playoff picture stands heading into the Monday night game.

Let's check out the AFC first:
1. Broncos (11-2) -- AFC West leader
2. Patriots (11-2) -- AFC East leader
3. Jaguars (9-4) -- AFC South leader
4. Steelers (7-6) -- AFC North leader
5. Bills (9-4)
6. Chargers (8-4)
7. Texans (8-5)
IN THE HUNT
8. Colts (8-5)
9. Ravens (6-7)
10. Chiefs (6-7)
11. Dolphins (6-7)

AFC takeaway: The Texans are aiming to become just the second team this century to make the playoffs after starting the season 0-3. The only other team to pull that off was also the Texans and that came back in 2018. With the Cardinals and Raiders coming up on their schedule, the Texans aren't just a threat to be a wild card team, they're also a threat to win the AFC South. If Houston wins out and the Jaguars lose just one of their final four games, the Texans will win the division, so Jacksonville has no margin for error.

Monday night note: If the Chargers lose to the Eagles, they'll drop down to the eighth spot and out of the playoffs. The Texans will then move up to six and the Colts will be seventh. On the other hand, if the Chargers win, they'll move up to the fifth spot and the Bills will fall to the sixth seed with Houston staying at seven.

Now, let's check out the NFC standings:
1. Rams (10-3) -- NFC West leader
2. Packers (9-3-1) -- NFC North leader
3. Eagles (8-4) -- NFC East leader
4. Buccaneers (7-6) -- NFC South leader
5. Seahawks (10-3)
6. 49ers (9-4)
7. Bears (9-4)
IN THE HUNT
8. Lions (8-5)
9. Panthers (7-6)
10. Cowboys (6-6-1)

NFC takeaway: The Bears took a huge tumble in the standings following their loss to the Packers, dropping from the No. 1 overall seed all the way down to the seventh spot. And let's not forget, the Bears still have several difficult games left with the Packers (again), 49ers and Lions still on the schedule. No one in Chicago should be panicking just yet, but with the Bears barely hanging on to a playoff spot, it's certainly possible they could end up missing the postseason.

Monday night note: The Eagles will remain the third seed in the NFC whether they win or lose against the Chargers.

If you want a closer look at the playoff picture, we've got that here.

5. Monday night preview: Picks and best bets for Eagles at Chargers

The final game of Week 14 is a huge interconference showdown in Los Angeles between the Chargers and Eagles. In terms of the playoff picture, the Chargers (8-4) definitely need this game more, but winning won't be easy and that's because Justin Herbert's status is up in the air. The star Chargers QB broke his left hand in Week 13 and he's been listed as questionable for the game after being a limited participant in practice all week.

If Herbert can't go or if he can't finish the game, then the Chargers will turn the offense over to Trey Lance. As for the Eagles, they can take a huge step closer to clinching the NFC East with a win tonight.

Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game:

Why the Eagles can win: If there has been one constant in the Eagles' season, it's this: If they can run the ball, they usually win. The problem is that they haven't been able to run the ball. With Saquon Barkley and the offensive line struggling, the Eagles have only topped 100 rushing yards in five games this year. However, they did go 5-0 in those games, so it seems pretty clear that running the ball needs to be a priority, and it doesn't just have to be Barkley. Jalen Hurts can keep the Chargers defense honest by taking off whenever he sees an opening. Hurts hasn't run as much this year, but when he is on the move, it usually works out well for the Eagles, who are 3-0 this season when Hurts tops 40 rushing yards.
Why the Chargers can win: Due to Justin Herbert's injury, it won't be surprising at all if the Chargers decided to go run-heavy tonight, which could pay off, because running the ball will likely give them their best chance to beat the Eagles. Philadelphia is just 1-4 this year when giving up 125 yards or more on the ground, so if you can run on the Eagles, you can beat them. The Chargers rushing attack is expected to get a boost tonight with the return of Omarion Hampton, who hasn't played since fracturing his ankle in Week 5. The Chargers also have Kimani Vidal, who's rushed for at least 95 yards in three of this past five games. If Vidal and Hampton get going, the Chargers should be in good shape. L.A. will also benefit from the absence of Jalen Carter (shoulder), who won't be playing tonight for the Eagles. This feels like a classic late season game where the team that runs the ball better will end up winning.

You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here.

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props (via BetMGM).

ONE QB PROP I LIKE: Jalen Hurts OVER 30.5 rushing yards (-115): The Eagles QB hasn't been afraid to run over the past few weeks. Hurts has gone over this number in three straight games and I think he can make it four straight tonight. When it comes to stopping the pass, the Chargers have one of the best defenses in the NFL, giving up an average of just 168.3 yards per game. With a number like that, I could see plenty of situations tonight where Hurts drops back to pass, but ends up running because he doesn't like what he sees.
ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE TONIGHT: Cameron Dicker OVER 1.5 field goals (-155): Although the Eagles are an aggressive team that will go for it on fourth down, that is not the case with the Chargers. Jim Harbaugh loves to take the points and because of that Dicker always seems to see a lot of action. The Chargers kicker has hit at least two field goals in four of his past five games and in eight of 12 games on the season. He has also hit multiple field goals in seven of the Chargers' eight wins, so if you think L.A. is going to win, then throwing this prop in with a Chargers moneyline bet on a two-leg parlay could make sense at +200.

If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 29-27 (12-14 on kicker props and 17-13 on all other props). And now, it's time for some picks.

PICKS FOR 'MNF'

My pick: Chargers 24-22 over Eagles
Dubin's pick: Eagles 21-17 over Chargers
Prisco's pick: Eagles 26-20 over Chargers
Tyler Sullivan: Eagles 26-21 over Chargers
Jordan Dajani: Eagles 27-20 over Chargers

Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, there are seven of us and six of us are taking the Eagles to both win and cover.

6. Extra points: Daniel Jones done for the season

It was a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.

Daniel Jones tears his Achilles. The Colts QB is done for the year after tearing his Achilles against the Jaguars on Sunday. With Jones out, the Colts will now be turning the offense over to rookie QB Riley Leonard. The Colts could go out and try to sign someone like Taylor Heinicke, Sam Ehlinger or even Ryan Tannehill (who might actually be retired), but at this point in the season, there aren't very many options.
DK Metcalf stays overnight in hospital. After the Steelers beat the Ravens on Sunday, Metcalf didn't fly with the team back to Pittsburgh. Instead, he stayed overnight at a Baltimore hospital as a precaution because he was having stomach pains. As long as everything checks out, the Steelers are expecting him to return to Pittsburgh today.
De'Von Achane dealing with rib injury. The Dolphins running back went off against the Jets for 105 total yards on just eight touches before being knocked out of the game with a rib injury in the first half. If the resurgent Dolphins are going to have any shot at the playoffs, they're likely going to need him on the field this week against the Steelers. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said on Sunday that Achane could have played in an emergency situation against the Jets. He also offered an update on whether Achane will play against Pittsburgh, "I promise you, he'll be in there if he's ready," McDaniel said, via ESPN. The Dolphins are now 6-7 after winning their fourth straight game on Sunday.