Final Gambit profile: 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post position, history and more to know
Get caught up with Final Gambit's past performances, jockey, trainer and full analysis heading into the Run for the Roses
Final Gambit has raced four times in his career, but not once on the dirt. His first race on the dirt surface will come in quite the spot — the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Many horses have tried the surface switch in the Derby only to fail. But the connections are hoping Final Gambit will follow in the footsteps of Animal Kingdom, who went from a synthetic specialist to a Kentucky Derby winner in 2011.
3 Final Gambit (30-1 on the morning line, now 15-1)
- Trainer Brad Cox
- Jockey Luan Machado
- Last race First in the Jeff Ruby Steaks by 3½ lengths
- Career record 4 starts: 2 wins, 1 second, 1 third
- Career earnings $520,639
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 90 (2025 Jeff Ruby Steaks)
- Sire Not This Time
Below, we'll dig further into Final Gambit as part of our series profiling all the horses competing in the 151st Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 3. We'll look back into his past performances, what questions need to be answered on Saturday and analyze how the post draw affects his chances.
Kentucky Derby profiles 1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty | 21 Baeza
Kentucky Derby picks Michelle Yu | Gene Menez | Jody Demling | Jeff Hochman
Now that you know who's in the field, you'll want to know how to bet the Kentucky Derby on the top horse racing betting apps.
What to know about Final Gambit
Brad Cox is one of the country's top trainers, having won the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Trainer twice (in 2020 and '21). He knows a thing or two about training horses.
So, when he decided to run Final Gambit on the grass once and then on the synthetic three times — but not once on the dirt — in any of his first four starts even when he was training on the dirt, the translation was, "Final Gambit doesn't like the dirt."
But then Final Gambit rallied from the back of the pack to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks on the synthetic at Turfway Park, earning a spot in the Kentucky Derby. Now, Cox has no other choice than to start Final Gambit on the dirt for the first time in his career.
How will he handle it? As a son of Not This Time out of a Tapit mare, he's certainly bred to take to it without issue. And during morning workouts in the lead-up to the race, Final Gambit seemed to get over the surface fine, according to trackside observers. But often a horse's issue with the dirt is not running over it but rather getting it kicked in the face. That's something that Kentucky Derby bettors at FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET won't know until the gate opens on Saturday.
There is precedent for making this move. In 2011, Animal Kingdom did not have a start on dirt before winning the Kentucky Derby. He, however, trained like monster on the dirt in the week leading up to the race and turned out to be a Dubai World Cup winner. There are far more examples of synthetic specialists failing in the Kentucky Derby.
Final Gambit has won his last two starts by almost six starts combined, so there's a possibility that he's just getting better at the right time, and the surface switch won't be a problem. The answer will come on Saturday.
Post draw analysis
The post draw was a mix of good news and bad news for Final Gambit. The good news: The No. 3 post should allow him to save ground around at least one turn. The bad news: The post means that he will likely take kickback in the face, something he never experienced while running on grass or the synthetic surface and something the connections were trying to avoid. If the kickback doesn't pose a problem, this figures to be a favorable gate for this back-of-the-pack closer.
