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The fourth and final game of the College Football Playoff quarterfinal round sees two SEC rivals square off for the second time this season with Ole Miss taking on Georgia in the Sugar Bowl Thursday night. The winner of this matchup faces Miami in the CFP semifinal with a trip to the championship game on the line. The last time Georgia and Ole Miss faced one another, it appeared the Rebels were on their way to a big win. However, a 17-0 fourth-quarter run by the Bulldogs gave Georgia the win and handed Ole Miss its only loss of the season to date. The Bulldogs would also lose just one game this year, and they wound up winning the SEC Championship. 

Both teams have a slightly different look right now, with Georgia really clicking on both sides of the ball over the last two months while Ole Miss has a new head coach. Lane Kiffin left the Rebels for rival LSU after the regular season ended, and he wasn't allowed to coach Ole Miss in the CFP. Instead, the Rebels are now led by Pete Golding, formerly the program's defensive coordinator. He kicked off his head coaching tenure with a blowout win over Tulane in the CFP's first round, while Georgia enjoyed a first-round bye. 

Kickoff from the Caesars Superdome is set for 8 p.m. ET on New Year's Day. The Bulldogs are 6.5-point favorites in the latest SportsLine consensus Ole Miss vs. Georgia odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 55.5. Georgia is a -240 money line favorite (bet $240 to win $100), while the Rebels are +197 underdogs (wager $100 to win $197). Before you make any Ole Miss vs. Georgia picks of your own, make sure you see the top college football picks from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every college football game 10,000 times.

Where to watch Ole Miss vs. Georgia on Thursday

When: Thursday, Jan. 1
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Stream: Fubo  
Follow along: CBS Sports App

Ole Miss vs. Georgia betting preview

Odds: Georgia -6.5, Over/Under 55.5

A lot of focus entering the CFP was on the Big Ten given Indiana is the No. 1 seed in the field and Ohio State won it all last year, though the Buckeyes lost Wednesday night to Miami, meaning the winner of Ole Miss-Georgia faces the Hurricanes in the next round. There's a strong case that Georgia -- not any Big Ten team -- is the most dangerous team in the field. The team's offense has been dynamic and efficient behind first-year starting quarterback Gunner Stockton, who finished seventh in Heisman Trophy voting with a 70.7% completion rate and 23 touchdowns to five picks. Stockton is also coming off maybe his best overall performance of his career as he completed 20 of his 26 passing attempts with three touchdowns against Alabama in the SEC title game a few weeks ago. Georgia also finished the year ninth in scoring defense at 15.9 points per game after allowing 35 to Ole Miss and 41 to Tennessee earlier in 2025.

The Rebels kicked off the Pete Golding era in resounding fashion, dominating Tulane 41-10 in the CFP's first round for Ole Miss' second win over the Green Wave this year. It was expected Ole Miss would win that game and win rather thoroughly, but this matchup with Georgia is Golding's first major test as the Rebels' head coach. Ole Miss' offense has been incredibly dynamic over the years when Kiffin was the head coach and calling plays, and that side of the ball scored 35 against Georgia's elite defense. But with Kiffin gone and many of the current Ole Miss offensive staff members soon to depart for LSU, how will that side of the ball look? Golding's defense found a groove in the second half of the year after some high-scoring affairs in September and October, so quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and Co. will have more pressure on them if the Rebels want to pull off the upset.

Despite the 12-1 record, Georgia is just 6-7 against the spread this year. Ole Miss is also 12-1 and is better ATS at 8-5. Both teams have played more games that finished Under the total as opposed to Over, with eight of Georgia's 13 games finishing Under and seven of Ole Miss' 13 doing the same. An Under finish may be in play here as the total is very high at 55.5, per the latest SportsLine consensus odds.

Model's Ole Miss vs. Georgia score prediction, picks

The Bulldogs win in the majority of the SportsLine Projection Model's 10,000 simulations, but the model instead would rather back the Rebels as they win in 44% of simulations at plus money while also covering the 6.5-point spread nearly 60% of the time. The model also has the Over on 55.5 hitting in 51% of simulations despite both teams leaning Under this season. Four of Ole Miss' last five games have finished Under, and each of Georgia's last four games have also gone Under the total.

Ole Miss vs. Georgia score prediction: Georgia 30, Ole Miss 27

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