Coach K's Blue Devils have the characteristics of a team capable of winning it all. (Getty Images)

Selection Sunday is 45 days away, but that doesn’t mean you can’t start narrowing in on your choice for the tourney’s ultimate champ. By monitoring a few key factors from now until the brackets are set, you can reduce your list of champion candidates to a handful of teams -- and be reasonably sure the ultimate victor will be among them.

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Every one of the last 12 champs have owned these eight characteristics:

  • Earned a one, two or three seed;
  • Came from a ''power'' conference: ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 or SEC (labeled “CF” in the table below);
  • Either went to the previous year’s dance or had an All-American (*/12);
  • Were led by a coach with more than five tourney trips and at least one Elite Eight run (CO);
  • Averaged more than 73 points per game (PF>73);
  • Allowed fewer than 73 points per game (PA<73);
  • Owned a scoring margin of at least seven points per game. (SM>=7);
  • Played a schedule among the 75 strongest in the country (S<75);

Consider last year. Of the six teams that were on the champ list for the entire season, five reached the Elite Eight, three made the Final Four, and two vied for the championship. The six teams were: Kentucky, Kansas, Syracuse, North Carolina, Duke and Ohio State. Among that group, only Duke significantly underperformed. If you had used these champ credentials in your bracket building, you probably would’ve done well.

Interestingly, the one region that was the most unpredictable was the West, where no team had the statistical chops to be champ. Top seed MSU wasn’t high scoring enough, and Missouri and Marquette didn’t have the coaching qualifications to cut down the nets. So that left a void with the high seeds in the region -- and an opening for Louisville, whose only shortcoming was a low 68.8-point scoring average.

So which teams currently have these eight champworthy stats? If you focus on today’s AP top 20 -- the squads most likely to be among the top three seeds -- only 10 of those teams make the champ grade. Check it out:

Under the “TOT” column at the far right, an “8” means the team met all the credentials. Red-filled boxes identify credentials each team failed to meet. The 10 teams on the champ list are Duke, Michigan, Kansas, Syracuse, Louisville, Indiana, Florida, Minnesota, Ohio State and North Carolina State. Some notable omissions include Arizona, Butler, Gonzaga and Michigan State.

Notice the thin flags at the far right of the table? These flags identify six teams that meet two other champ stats I’ll be following this year. If you’re a fan of Ken Pomeroy’s possession-based efficiency statistics, these two filters should be of particular interest. I hesitate to include them in the basic champ check because I only have nine years of pretourney KenPom data. That said, every one of the nine champions since 2004 has had an offensive efficiency rank among the top 17 and a defensive rank among the top 25.

When you evaluate the AP top 20 on these two KenPom rankings, four of our potential champs don’t make the grade:

  • Michigan drops off because they rank 39th on defense.
  • Minnesota misses out on defense too -- just barely -- ranking 26th
  • Ohio State’s offense isn’t efficient enough (20th)
  • And NC State’s defensive ranking is shockingly low at 140th

That leaves six teams that have the inside statistical track to cut down the nets: Duke, Kansas, Syracuse, Louisville, Indiana and Florida. My guess is that by Selection Sunday, Florida will drop off this list, failing to meet the 73-point scoring average threshold. Kansas and Louisville could also find themselves in the same boat as they struggle through the meat grinder of conference play. We’ll keep an eye on these champ stats throughout the season.

One last analysis: I like to track the teams whose AP rankings don’t reflect their overall KenPom efficiency ratings. Right now, according to possession-based data, six teams don’t deserve to be ranked in the top 20. Check out the red boxes under the second column, labeled “PR.” The biggest imposter is Kansas State (ranked 44th on KenPom) but Butler (33), New Mexico (30), NC State (29, and a potential champ no less!), Wichita State (24) and Oregon (23) aren’t playing as efficiently as their AP ranking would indicate either.

They’ve taken the spots of six underrated squads. Pitt is the most criminal omission (ranked ninth on KenPom). Wisconsin (15), Kentucky (16), State" data-canon="Oklahoma Sooners" data-type="SPORTS_OBJECT_TEAM" id="shortcode0"> (17), Cincinnati (18) and Ole Miss (20) also got the shaft.