NBA Draft 2016: Providence's Kris Dunn rises over Kentucky's Jamal Murray
A look at who the best NBA Draft prospects heading into the 2016 NBA Draft Combine.
By
Sam Vecenie
•
5 min read
The 2016 NBA Draft season is now in full swing, with the NBA Draft Combine coming up next week. That means it's time for a quick CBS Sports Big Board update. Given the early entrant decisions, there is a lot to unpack here.
At the top, there still has been no change. Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram are still vying neck and neck for that No. 1 spot. Simmons just slightly has the edge to me as I believe he has a slightly higher ceiling due to his athletic ability, but that could all change starting next week when interviews get under way. Those interviews are going to be the key for Simmons due to some of the issues that came up this year with him at LSU. Can he convince teams that he will tirelessly work on fixing his jump shot and becoming a better defender? If not, Ingram will have the inside track to No. 1.
Throughout the rest of the lottery, there are some slight changes. I've moved Jamal Murray down from No. 4 to No. 6, as I'm starting to get a bit more worried about his defense at the next level. Scoring won't be an issue, as his shooting will translate well and his slashing ability should be enhanced by the increased spacing in the NBA. However, his length and lateral quickness on defense could become an issue moving forward. I've moved Kris Dunn to No. 4 and Jaylen Brown to No. 5 ahead of him.
A pair of Michigan State prospects also make a slight upward move. Denzel Valentine moves from No. 13 to No. 10 here. The more you look at what Valentine was able to do, it's impossible not to be outwardly impressed. His ability to pass and make plays for others as well as hit jump shots should fit perfectly in the modern NBA, where ball movement and floor spacing have become so vital in the offensive game. I've also moved Deyonta Davis up slightly. He didn't have the biggest year and he's still something of a work in progress, but Davis should work well in the NBA as a player who attacks the glass and protects the weakside of the rim as a mobile 5 who could even potentially step away and shoot it from the midrange consistently. He's likely never going to create offense for himself, but Tristan Thompson is showing for Cleveland what kind of value mobility and athleticism at the position can have without that.
Throughout the rest of the board, here are some quick notes.
- Look, beyond the top 20 to 25 players, this thing is wide open when it comes to the bottom of the first round. The players are all incredibly bunched together at this stage, with similar talent levels from that place onward. A question often asked is how many players have a reasonable shot to go in the first round. Well, in this draft, where fewer players are going to get genuine first round grades from teams, I'd place that number at right around 65 heading into the combine. It's seriously that wide open. Obviously, that number will drop as we get deeper into the process, as it always does. Strong and weak workouts will divide the field more smoothly. But as a starting point, basically everyone from Juan Hernangomez on down through Malachi Richardson have a shot to go in the first round depending on workouts.
- Along with the new rules stating that players can test the process and return to school 10 days after the combine, the above is one of the biggest reasons why so many kids declared for the draft. There is a genuine vacuum to be filled talent-wise at this point, and it's given this draft a bit of depth right now. Obviously, that depth will diminish as players decide to return to school. But as things currently stand, there could be some value to be had later on given that players are testing the waters here.
- Whether or not those player decide to return will obviously hinge on feedback from NBA teams. However, what will happen when players get feedback that while they may not be drafted, they will be picked up and paid as an undrafted free agent? The new draft rules along with the explosion in cap room around the league and the further development of the D-League could lead to a bit more of a robust undrafted free agent market than we've seen in years past. For instance, it might make sense for a team to take a chance on three undrafted free agents at $150,000 guaranteed a pop during training camp as opposed to signing a 30-year-old unrestricted free agent for nearly $1 million with the outlay of new cap space being used on more established players. Plus, if those three aren't quite ready to be on a team and you have a single affiliate D-League team, you can cut them and send them there. Even if you won't hold their exclusive rights, they'll still be closer to you and will be learning a system similar to the one you run. Last year, the median outlay for an undrafted free agent commodity was $75,000 to come to training camp. It's my guess that number rises this year, and with that it will create tougher decisions for players on the borderline of the draft. Do you go pro and potentially make six figures? Or do you stay in school and take your shot at the draft next season? Tough call.
- The biggest risers on the NBA Draft Big Board this time around? Georgios Papagiannis moves into the top 60 after a solid year at Panathinaikos as an 18-year-old. He's decided to declare for the draft, and as a 7-2, mobile big man, he'll have a shot at the first round. Jaron Blossomgame might only be an NBA Draft Combine alternate, but there's a lot to like about his athleticism and potential to shoot the ball. He also moves into the top 60. At the bottom of the top 100, there are couple of college seniors I like in Elgin Cook and Wes Washpun. They're both tough, athletic defenders, Cook on the wing and Washpun at the point. They need to work on their shots, but they're solid, speculative D-League-types who could reach the NBA. Isaiah Miles of St. Joseph's also parlayed a strong Portsmouth event into an NBA Draft Combine invite, and moved up.
Here is the full board.
