The Washington Nationals were bounced in the NL Division Series for the second time in the past three years. This time, it was San Francisco that did them in, three games to one. As is custom in these parts, let us eulogize.
What went right
The won the NL East by 17 games and had an NL-best 96-66 regular-season record. That's an overwhelming success.
The team was very well-rounded. Only two teams in the NL scored more runs while the Nationals boasted the best ERA in all of baseball.
In the rotation, the Nationals were stellar, with Tanner Roark having a great year behind three ace-like performances in Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg and Doug Fister. Tyler Clippard was good and Drew Storen was excellent in the bullpen.
On the position-player side, Anthony Rendon had a breakout season while Jayson Werth, Adam LaRoche and Denard Span had very good seasons. And though it's popular to rag on Bryce Harper, he still hit .273/.344/.423 at the tender young age of 21 before a powerful postseason performance. The league average slash line, by the way, is .249/.312/.383, so he's far from the failure many non-Nationals fans would like to believe.
In all, the Nationals were pretty much above average at everything in the regular season. They even rate highly in team baserunning metrics.
What went wrong
On the flip side to the above, the Nationals were taken down in the NLDS round by the second wild card. After winning 96 games, that's a pretty major disappointment.
Past that, injuries to Ryan Zimmerman hampered him while his defensive woes at third base aren't going away. Harper was held back a bit by a thumb injury, Fister missed several starts due to injury, Taylor Jordan and Ross Detwiler battled injury and ineffectiveness and Gio Gonzalez wasn't near as good as he has been in the recent past.
And then there's Rafael Soriano. Manager Matt Williams was forced to remove him from the closer role after his seventh blown save happened on Sept. 5. He blew five of his 15 save chances with a 6.48 ERA after the All-Star break.
Still, most of what went wrong happened in the NLDS. There isn't much to complain about with the overwhelmingly good regular season. It just fell apart in October and their three losses were hotly contested. Sometimes it happens like that.
MVP: The rest of the NL East? It was a terrible division aside from the Nationals. If we need a player or players here, I would pick the starting rotation by a nose over Rendon.
LVP: The flukiness of the short postseason series. This isn't anything new, but losing three close games to the Giants in October is hardly an indictment of a franchise.
Free agents to be: 1B Adam LaRoche ($15M mutual option), RP Rafael Soriano ($14M club option), IF Asdrubal Cabrera, OF Denard Span ($9M club option), OF Scott Hairston, OF Nate Schierholtz
Game plan heading into the offseason
Obviously, the options come first. I imagine they'll pick up their half of LaRoche's option, but he might still want to test the free-agent waters. Soriano seems an easy decline and Span's option seems likely to be picked up.
Honestly, though, I think I would let LaRoche walk. He has had a great year and a very good year for the Nationals, but he's going to be 35 next month. There's also the Ryan Zimmerman problem. He can't handle third base defensively. Clearing first base for Zimmerman would leave third base for Anthony Rendon and an opening at second. Or they could put Rendon at second and acquire a third baseman. Letting LaRoche walk provides flexibility.
Past that, picking up Span's option means the Nationals are set with positional starters. The rotation is set and has good depth while the bullpen should mostly be fine without Soriano. Really, the Nationals could head into next season as the NL East favorites without doing very much at all.
Of course, there's some maneuvering to be done for the health of the franchise. Guess which players are set to hit free agency after 2015? Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, Denard Span, Ian Desmond and Tyler Clippard, among others. The Nationals are loaded, but they still can't likely afford to re-sign all of them. They'll surely want to try and re-up with Zimmermann and it'll cost them nine figures, I would guess. Maybe they trade Fister or Desmond? The Mets could be a match for Desmond, for example. What if they trade someone like Stephen Strasburg? He could land them multiple useful pieces (perhaps Jorge Soler and Addison Russell from the Cubs, allowing Span and Desmond to walk in free agency and moving Bryce Harper to CF? Just thinking out loud ... ).
It'll be interesting to see how the Nationals balance the hopes of winning it all in 2015 with how to approach the roster beyond 2015. General manager Mike Rizzo has a great foundation in place, but a tall order in keeping it as strong as possible past next season.
Ridiculously premature prediction for 2015
They're gonna win a much-tougher NL East again and enter the playoffs having to answer questions about why "this year is different." And if they lose Game 1 of the NLDS, well, the questions will intensify.
