College football bowl projections: Louisville wins on bye week sliding into New Year's Six as UNC drops out
Upsets were (mostly) averted in Week 8, maintaining the vast majority of Jerry Palm's latest bowl projections
By
Jerry Palm
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3 min read
North Carolina was the victim of a stunning upset Saturday as the Tar Heels fell at home to last place Virginia, 31-27, knocking UNC out of the Orange Bowl in this week's bowl projections. Louisville is now projected as the ACC representative for that game.
The Cardinals are the significant change this week, though Washington nearly fell out as well as well. The Huskies had to fight last place Arizona State to the wire, but they ultimately held on for a 15-7 home win. Virginia's victory was its first over an FBS opponent this season, and it came against a top 10 team on the road. Arizona State almost accomplished that same feat.
Texas had to work hard to get a 31-24 victory at Houston, though it remains No. 4 in the College Football Playoff projection. Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers left with a shoulder injury in the third quarter. Texas hosts BYU next Saturday.
Ohio State is still projected as Louisville's opponent in the Orange Bowl following a 20-6 win at home over Penn State that was more dominant than the score would indicate. However, the Nittany Lions are still expected to meet Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.
For the first time in about a month, I have the same team representing the Group of Five in the New Year's Six. Air Force holds onto that spot for another week following a 17-6 win over Navy.
College Football Playoff
| Date | Game / Loc. | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 8 | National Championship | Title game | Semifinal winners |
| Jan. 1 | Sugar Bowl New Orleans | Semifinal | (1) Georgia vs. (4) Texas |
Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl | Semifinal | (2) Michigan vs. (3) Florida State |
New Year's Six bowl games
| Date | Bowl / Location | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 1 | Fiesta Bowl | at-large vs. at-large | Washington vs. Air Force |
Dec. 30 | Orange Bowl | ACC vs. SEC/B1G/ND | Louisville vs. Ohio State |
Dec. 30 | Peach Bowl | at-large vs. at-large | Alabama vs. Penn State |
Dec. 29 | Cotton Bowl | at-large vs. at-large | Oregon vs. Oklahoma |
Last week, I wrote that Iowa could not play in the Citrus Bowl because of the Big Ten's no-repeat rule for its bowl games. It turns out that the rule applies only to the team most recently in that game. In other words: Purdue cannot play in that game this season, but Iowa, the 2021 participant, is still eligible.
However, the league rule for most of its bowl games states that they will have at least five different teams over the six-year contract period. This is the fourth year of that deal. If Iowa were to play in the Citrus Bowl this season, It would mean that the Hawkeyes, along with the Boilermakers and Northwestern, would be locked out for the remainder of the contract term.
Oddly, Wisconsin is not eligible for two of the Big Ten bowls this season because the Badgers are the most recent participant in the Guaranteed Rate (2022) and Las Vegas (2021) bowls. Iowa is not projected in the Citrus Bowl again this week, but this time it is because of the Hawkeyes' 12-10 loss at home to Minnesota on Saturday.
If you have watched James Madison this season, you have likely heard the announcers whine relentlessly about the fact that the Dukes are not eligible for the postseason despite being 7-0 after their win at Marshall. JMU -- like Sam Houston and Jacksonville State -- is in its second year of transition from FCS to FBS. As such, none of the three are eligible for postseason play. Kennesaw State is in its first year of transition this season.
However, the rules for filling bowl games when there are not enough eligible teams give them a chance at the postseason. Teams in the second year of transition with a 6-6 record or better are in line ahead of 5-7 teams when it comes to filling the bowl games. That is why I've had James Madison projected to a bowl game for most of this season.
Don't see your team? Check out Jerry Palm's bowl projections after Week 8.
