COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 20 Tulane at Ole Miss
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The months of debating and bickering are over. The College Football Playoff begins this weekend with actual postseason games that will produce definitive results we no longer need to argue about. It's no longer "win and hope the loss looks impressive enough." It's win or go home.

Whether your feelings were hurt about your team, or any team, being left out or included doesn't matter anymore. Nor does the possible existential crisis caused by being forced to watch not one, but two Group of Five teams play in playoff games.

And the one thing that really doesn't matter now? How poorly you may or may not have performed in your weekly picks column this season.

What do you mean that's oddly specific? I'm simply pointing out that if you had the worst record of your life in a weekly picks column you've been publishing for 15 years, it no longer matters. We wipe the slate clean in the playoffs. It doesn't matter if you went 13-0, 10-3 or something far worse.

What matters now is that you're here and you have a chance to be a champion.

No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma (Friday)

One of two rematches in the first round, both of which felt like blowouts the first time around. The difference is that, in this one, the team that felt like it was being blown out won. Alabama outgained Oklahoma (in Tuscaloosa) 406 yards to 212. At no point during the game did the Oklahoma offense do anything that made you feel confident in its ability to move the ball consistently against the Tide.

It was turnovers that did Alabama in. One was an 81-yard pick-six from Eli Bowen. The rest of Oklahoma's 16 points came via three field goals and a touchdown. None of Oklahoma's four scoring drives covered more than 41 total yards, as they were working with short fields resulting from either an Alabama turnover or special teams returns. It's not a formula a team can be counted on to repeat, which is why, even with this game at Oklahoma, Alabama is favored.

Still, I'm not convinced the Tide should be. We saw last year how road teams struggled in these first-round games, and while there was no game last year as evenly-matched as this one, the fact that it's so evenly-matched only pushes me further toward Oklahoma and its homefield advantage. Oklahoma's offense has been bad all season. I've made no secret about my feelings for it, but what isn't talked about is that Alabama's offense has been just as bad as Oklahoma's lately. Seriously, in Alabama's last five games against FBS opponents, it has averaged 1.70 points per possession. Oklahoma has averaged 1.64 in the same time frame.

Pushing me further in Oklahoma's direction is the health of both teams. Oklahoma's defense will get R. Mason Thomas back this week, and he's their best pass-rusher. Alabama will once again be without LT Overton on its defensive line, and there are whispers that Ty Simpson has been dealing with an injury of his own for weeks. While I can't verify those whispers, his performance over the last month or so is not helping Simpson shake the allegations. It's hard to beat the same team twice in the same season, but Oklahoma probably shouldn't have won the first time! So give me Oklahoma in the rematch, too. The Pick: Oklahoma +1.5 (-112) at Draftkings

No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M

Miami's sudden inclusion in the playoff field caused plenty of controversy, but it also gives us one of the more intriguing first-round matchups. These teams are similar in a lot of ways, which makes this game fascinating. Both are strong along the lines of scrimmage, yet there are legitimate questions about how each will look against an opponent capable of matching that physicality. Neither has faced many teams like this all season.

We've also seen the Texas A&M defense struggle against quality offenses. Yes, it beat Notre Dame on the road earlier this season, but it also allowed 40 points in that game, 42 to Arkansas, 30 to South Carolina and even 24 and 22 to UTSA and Utah State to open the year. Miami's defense has been more consistent, but it has not faced many offenses with receivers like KC Concepcion and Mario Craver.

It's also worth noting what happened in Miami's two losses. Louisville's Chris Bell went off for 136 yards and two touchdowns, and SMU's Jordan Hudson -- no, not that one -- also posted 136 receiving yards against the Canes.

My suspicion is that both secondaries have benefited from playing behind strong pass rushes and could struggle when that pressure is neutralized. I believe both Miami's and Texas A&M's offensive lines are capable of slowing the opposing pass rush to a degree few teams have managed this season. Both offenses are balanced and talented enough at the skill positions to take advantage of that extra time.

I don't expect a 45-42 shootout, but I do think this game produces more points than the total suggests. The Pick: Over 48.5 (-114) at Fanduel

No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss

If you go back to the first meeting, which Ole Miss won 45-10, there's a valid argument to be made that Tulane got game-scripted out of it quickly. Jake Retzlaff, who joined Tulane late in the offseason and wasn't fully familiar with his new team yet, started 0-for-9, and it was quickly 13-0 Ole Miss, which forced Tulane to play a style of football that doesn't suit it.

It all makes plenty of sense, and I can envision a scenario where the Tulane offense performs much better here. What I'm having a much tougher time seeing is how Tulane stops Ole Miss from putting up points. The Rebels finished with 548 yards and averaged 7.9 per play in the game. They stopped themselves a couple of times in the red zone and had to settle for two field goals, leaving points on the board. If Ole Miss finishes those two drives, it's a 52-10 win rather than 45-10.

I know there are question marks surrounding the Rebels' offense here because of the whole Lane Kiffin saga. I have no idea how that will impact things in the game. Charlie Weis Jr, the team's offensive coordinator, is with the team for the playoff run, but we don't know how much influence Kiffin had with playcalling during games. It's not crazy to think his absence could lead to a few more mistakes made by the Rebels' offense, or maybe new coach Pete Golding, the defensive coordinator, is more conservative with fourth-down decisions than Kiffin was. My guess is that, considering the emotional circumstances at play and that this is a home game in Oxford, which could allow Ole Miss fans, players, and coaches who have been frustrated by the whole situation to let it all out, we'll see the same aggressive approach as always. The Pick: Ole Miss Team Total Over 37.5 (-108) at Fanduel

No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon

I feel bad for James Madison. All it did was go out there and win every game it could and win its conference. Then it was chosen to compete in the CFP, and the world lost its mind about it. You've got college football literati out here reacting to the Dukes being in the playoff field as they carry some highly spreadable incurable disease that will not only destroy college football, but possibly human civilization.

To be blunt, I do not believe James Madison can win the national title, but if the ability to actually win the CFP was part of the criteria for selection, I'd argue that means we need to eliminate at least half the field. Frankly, unlike seven of the teams in the field, at least the Dukes qualified for it by winning their conference instead of being chosen by a group full of people nobody seems to trust. The way I view it, James Madison either loses as we all expect it to, or it pulls off a stunning upset that we remember forever, and isn't that what sports are ultimately about as a fan? It's a memory-making business.

But I digress.

I do expect James Madison to lose, but if the Dukes keep it close, they'll do so because of their run game and because their defense does enough to limit Oregon's explosive plays. If Oregon blows the Dukes out, considering how banged up it's been down the stretch, I would expect Dan Lanning and company to take a cautious "let's just get out of here and get ready for next week" approach to the second half. Both of those scenarios strike me as lower-scoring affairs. The Pick: Under 47.5 (-110) at Fanduel