In an offseason defined by drama, Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott and Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones have emerged as the highest-paid players at their respective positions. Now, both should be on the field as Dallas and Atlanta begin their seasons on Sunday. Jones and the Falcons are 3.5-point underdogs on the road against the Vikings in the current NFL odds, while Elliott's Cowboys are seven-point favorites over the division-rival Giants. Elsewhere, Kyler Murray will make his regular-season debut with the Cardinals. Arizona is a three-point underdog according to the latest NFL lines, up from an open of one. Out East, the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots drew a Sunday Night Football opener with the Steelers and are 5.5-point favorites. With so much pulse-pounding action on tap and NFL odds constantly moving, you'll want to see the Week 1 NFL predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine. It'll help you lock in optimal NFL picks for the NFL's 100th season.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It nailed its top-rated NFL picks in 2018-19, finishing the season on a sizzling 16-6 run. For the year, it went 30-15 on all top-rated picks (20-8 against the spread), extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49.
The model ranked inside the top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third straight year on straight-up NFL picks and beat over 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has examined the latest Week 1 NFL odds and lines, simulated every snap, and its predictions are in. One of the top Week 1 NFL predictions the model recommends: the Browns (-5.5) live up to the hype and cover against the Titans in Cleveland at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield accounts for almost 300 yards of total offense and two touchdowns, while new acquisition Odell Beckham Jr. records six catches for nearly 100 yards. The Titans enter the 2019 season with questions at quarterback, as Marcus Mariota has struggled with accuracy and durability. They only covered in two of their last seven games in 2018, and will also be without All-Pro offensive tackle Taylor Lewan (suspension). The Browns cover in well over 50 percent of simulations, while the under (45.5) hits more than 60 percent of the time.
Another one of the Week 1 NFL picks from the model: The Chargers take care of business as 6.5-point favorites at home against the shell-shocked Colts. Indianapolis has quickly rallied to support Jacoby Brissett as its starter after Andrew Luck's sudden retirement, giving him a contract extension worth $30 million to show that they're committed to developing him.
However, the fact remains that the Colts' offense looks considerably less intimidating without Luck under center. Meanwhile, the Chargers will be without Pro Bowl running back Melvin Gordon, who is still pursuing trade opportunities amid a tension-filled holdout. However, Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson carry the load at running back, according to the model, combining for well over 100 yards from scrimmage on Sunday.
A season ago, Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers proved that he was still at the top of his game with an eighth Pro Bowl selection after completing 68.3 percent of his passes for 4,308 yards and 32 touchdowns. He'll have tight end Hunter Henry and wide receiver Keenan Allen healthy to start the year, while wideout Mike Williams is hopeful to build off a 10-touchdown season in 2018.
That's why the model says that the Chargers cover in nearly 60 percent of simulations, while under (44.5) hits in well over half of SportsLine's projections.
The model also has a strong pick for Patriots vs. Steelers on Sunday Night Football, and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard this weekend. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 1? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 47)
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-10, 44.5)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-2.5, 40.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (+6.5, 39.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5, 50.5)
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-5.5, 45.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers (+1.5, 50)
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5, 44.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 44.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 51)
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+3, 46.5)
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 45.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-5.5, 49)
Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-7, 52.5)
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+2, 42.5)