Dribble Handoff: Duke, Michigan, Houston among top title picks from fabled top 12 of Week 6 AP basketball poll

For over two decades now, the national champion has come from the top 12 of the Week 6 AP poll

Every year since the 2003-04 season, college basketball's national champion has been ranked in the top 12 of the Week 6 AP poll. With more than two decades of precedent established, it's time to take stock of what that could portend for the 2025-26 season.

If the well-established trend holds true again, it means a handful of brand-name programs who entered the season with lofty expectations are already out of the mix. Florida, St. John's, Kentucky and Texas Tech each began the season as top-10 teams but are now ranked outside the top 12.

Additionally, Arkansas, Kansas and Auburn are outside the top 12 and will have to hope this is the year the streak ends. For those wondering, the last team to bust the theory was Syracuse in 2003, led by one-and-done star Carmelo Anthony.  The Orange were unranked in the Week 6 poll but steadily climbed over the course of the season and claimed a No. 3 seed for the Big Dance. Anthony averaged 20.2 points and 9.8 rebounds during the NCAA Tournament and earned the Final Four's Most Outstanding Player award.

So, assuming there isn't another unforseen run from a modern-day equivalent of 2003 Syracuse in the cards, who can win the national championship? Here's your list, pulled from the 1-12 ranking in this week's AP poll.

1. Arizona
2. Michigan
3. Duke
4. Iowa State
5. UConn
6. Purdue
7. Houston
8. Gonzaga
9. Michigan State
10. BYU
11. Louisville
12. Alabama

For this week's Dribble Handoff, our experts are identifying the team they believe is most likely to win it all from the group of 12.

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Kyle Boone

Purdue

Despite Purdue's 81-58 home loss to Iowa State last weekend, I still view Matt Painter's team as the most likely champion of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

The Boilermakers have the talent, experience and depth to win six games in the bracket -- and the kind of top-tier coach to guide them through it. Braden Smith is an All-American in the backcourt with NBA potential. Trey Kaufman-Renn is an All-American in the frontcourt with the same potential. The supporting cast complements the stars well.

Yes, Purdue just lost by 23 points at home. But before that, the Boilermakers were 95-23 with two Big Ten regular-season titles, one Big Ten Tournament title and a trip to the Final Four since Smith enrolled alongside team scoring leader Fletcher Loyer. For now, I'm trusting that Saturday's result was a one-off and not indicative of what we'll see from this team moving forward. -- Gary Parrish

Houston

This might be the strongest group of 12 title contenders in mid-December I've ever seen. I can envision 11 of those 12 teams winning it all in April (the one I can't stays with me 🤐). But as tempting as Michigan, Arizona, Iowa State and Duke are, I'm going with a one-loss team — the one I picked in the preseason.

Houston is 9-1, its lone defeat coming at the Players Era Championship against rough-and-tumble Tennessee, by three points. I sat courtside for that game; it was one of the most physical battles I've seen in this sport in the past five years. Houston will almost certainly get better as each month goes on, and I say that because it has been true for the past five seasons. Freshman talent, top-shelf defense, elite coaching, a toughness streak few teams can match and all the motivation to atone for last season's title-game defeat? I have to stick with Houston. A lot of teams can win it all, but nothing has happened to make me shift off my preseason pick of Houston over Michigan in the national championship game. -- Matt Norlander

UConn

Change course upon learning new information -- that Duke, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Arizona and Iowa State are all very worthy contenders in their own tier right now -- or double down on my preseason pick of the lurking Connecticut Huskies?

I choose the latter, baby.

UConn is a couple of ugly possessions in a close loss to Arizona from being in that same discussion -- and it doesn't even feel like it has cracked the code to consistently being a force like it was two years ago. And yet, the defense is exceptional, offensive execution remains world-class despite injuries and attrition, and Dan Hurley remains the head coach. There are a ton of forces at its sails right now that the metrics aren't accounting for, but soon will.

From a personnel perspective, I'm also buying what's in-house: Tarris Reed is a force when healthy, Braylon Mullins is already as advertised and Silas Demary Jr. -- as my colleague Isaac Trotter noted this week --  has been terrific in his role. The point guard position overall is dramatically improved from last year.

A good team in Storrs still has a chance to be a great one. I'm leaving the door open for the Huskies to take down another chip under Hurley and company. -- Kyle Boone

Duke

I was the only one of our experts to pick Duke as the national champion in the preseason, and the Blue Devils have only confirmed what I believed about them from the start. With the frontrunner for National Player of the Year, Cam Boozer, leading the charge, this team looks poised to accomplish what last year's squad couldn't. 

Duke is showing the ability to execute in late-game situations far better than its 2024-25 counterpart. Much of it boils down to Boozer's ability to generate high-quality looks for himself or to create them for others with the attention he attracts from the defense. The 2025-26 Blue Devils aren't going to produce three top-10 picks or be as statically dominant as last year's team, but they are proving to be better under game pressure. 

The ACC is improved this season, and even with more solid late-game execution, Duke probably won't finish 19-1 in league play again. That's actually a good. Getting tested along the way and going through legitimate battles will help this team mature in ways last year's squad never did. -- David Cobb

Houston

I genuinely want this stat to be debunked, but who am I kidding? If No. 16 Texas Tech won the title, the parameters would simply change to say that one of the top 16 teams in the Week 6 AP Poll will be the champion.

Anyways, moving on. I'm starting to get the vibe that Houston is a tad undervalued right now. Houston made way more scouting report mistakes than we're used to seeing with a Kelvin Sampson-coached club, but that was probably to be expected for a slightly younger team.

This is more a bet on the projection of the team Houston will be in March than a wager on the team Houston showed in November. I think there's a very good chance this backcourt trio of Milos Uzan, Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp can outplay any backcourt it faces on the way to the title. You like Duke's guards more? Michigan's? Gonzaga's? Arizona's? 

Flemings is playing like a potential lottery pick, and both Sharp and Uzan are proven killers. All three of these guards can pass, dribble, shoot and defend, and they're surrounded by a double-big lineup of Chris Cenac and JoJo Tugler. This roster-construction gameplan is eerily similar to the recipe Florida used a year ago to win the title. Once this defense gets fully up to speed, Houston could have a terrifying level it could reach by March with its combination of protecting the rim, guarding the ball and generating takeaways.

If this team peaks in March, watch out. -- Isaac Trotter

Michigan

In our preseason Big Ten expert picks, I tabbed Michigan to win the conference. Part of that was blind confidence in coach Dusty May, after he orchestrated one of the most dramatic turnarounds in college basketball history. The Wolverines went from an eight-win team in Juwan Howard's final season to a Sweet 16 appearance. They did it with a unique lineup of 7-footers, Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, creating matchup nightmares for opponents.

The scarier part is this year's Michigan team is even better.

May worked his magic in the transfer portal again, landing Aday Mara from UCLA, Morez Johnson Jr. from Illinois and preseason All-American Yaxel Lendeborg from UAB. Michigan also added Elliot Cadeau from North Carolina and signed four-star guard Trey McKenney. The Wolverines aren't just winning, they're doing so in style. After an early-season scare against TCU, Michigan has been dominant. -- Cameron Salerno