The SEC's last stand: Blockbuster college basketball weekend could determine fate of teetering league

One year removed from a season of historic dominance, the SEC is taking on water in 2025-26

As Syracuse produced a game-clinching stop in the final seconds of its ACC-SEC Challenge win over Tennessee on Dec. 2, a wave of cheers swept through Rupp Arena. Kentucky fans, in their seats before the Wildcats' 9:30 p.m. local tip against North Carolina, enjoyed the pregame entertainment of seeing their SEC rival falter on the arena's video board.

Considering the Volunteers are a bitter border foe, the reaction was understandable, but it was a bit misguided. Results like Syracuse's win over Tennessee are becoming a problem for the rest of the SEC, including Kentucky.

If the Wildcats are going to claw back from a horrific start and build an NCAA Tournament resume, they need their 18-game league schedule to include as many marquee matchups as possible.

Just one year removed from a season of historic dominance, the SEC is grappling with its worst nonconference run of the post-pandemic era. Entering another big weekend, the SEC is just 27-38 against high-major competition, and that mark drops to 27-41 when factoring in the league's 0-3 mark against Gonzaga. By comparison, the SEC finished 60-19 against high-major teams/Gonzaga in regular season action last year.

The end result of the league's November and December of dominance was a historic March that featured a record-setting 14 teams making the Big Dance, including four who received No. 2 seeds or better.

A repeat of last year's unprecedented selection Sunday flew off the table last weekend when the league posted an 0-8 mark against high-major competition/Gonzaga. But the extent to which the SEC can salvage its sloppy start will be determined before Christmas.

That starts with a huge slate of games this weekend.

Massive weekend ahead

Beginning with Friday night's tilt between Texas and No. 5 UConn, there are eight games on tap for this weekend between SEC teams and high-major foes. The headliner is Saturday night's battle in Birmingham between No. 1 Arizona and No. 12 Alabama. A gold-plated Quad 1 win would go a long way for both the Crimson Tide and the SEC.

Entering Friday's action, the league is just 12-32 in Quad 1 games. A year ago, the SEC was 20-15 at this point in Quad 1 and had suffered just two losses across Quads 2-4 with none coming in Quads 3-4.

This year, the league has already suffered 11 losses in Quads 2-4, including two in Quad 3.

Year	Record	SEC teams in NCAA Tournament
2025-26	27-38	TBD
2024-25	59-19	14 of 16
2023-24	37-33	8 of 14
2022-23	30-27	8 of 14
2021-22	28-24	6 of 14

Despite those bleak numbers, all is not lost for the SEC. Though its Quad 1 record is poor, the penalty for losing such contests is minimal. North Carolina made the NCAA Tournament last season out of the ACC with a 1-13 record in Quad 1 and a 22-1 mark across Quads 2-4.

If the season ended Friday, nine of the SEC's 16 teams would still make the field, according to CBS Sports Bracketology. None would be better than a No. 3 seed, and only Alabama would be better than a No. 5 seed.

Nine is still a respectable tally, even for a 16-team megaconference. But the drop from 14 representatives would be significant for the league, and it would spell trouble for teams like Kentucky that are likely to face an uphill climb in league play.

Here's one practical example of how the league's early struggles could impact Kentucky's hopes of building an at-large resume:  

Tennessee's losses to Syracuse and Illinois dropped the Volunteers out of the NET's top 30. If that's where they remain on Feb. 7, Kentucky's visit from the Volunteers will be a Quad 2 game instead of the Quad 1 game like it was last season. If it winds up as a Quad 2 game, Kentucky won't get as much credit for a win and will be punished to some degree for a loss. Those are little things, but they add up to make a difference for teams in bubble territory.

Can Vanderbilt and Georgia keep it up?

The league is being propped up by two pleasant surprises, as Vanderbilt and Georgia are a combined 17-1 and both ranked inside the top 15 of the NET. While the Commodores – ranked No. 8 by KenPom.com and boasting wins over a trio of top-60 NET teams — appear to have some staying power, Georgia's legitimacy is up for debate.

The Bulldogs (8-1) are 0-1 in Quad 1, and six of their wins are in Quad 4. UGA's best wins are against Xavier and Florida State, which are both led by first-year coaches and ranked outside the top 80 by KenPom. Barring an unforeseen fluctuation in the NET rankings, Georgia will enter SEC play against Auburn on Jan. 3 with zero Quad 1 wins.

When regression comes for Georgia, it will come at a significant cost for the SEC. Right now, playing the Bulldogs would mark a Quad 1 game for everyone, regardless of the game's location. But if their fast start proves to be nothing more than a mirage facilitated by wide margins of victory against inferior competition, that will change quickly.

Look no further than LSU for a cautionary tale. The Tigers were 8-0 and ranked No. 18 in the NET – firmly in Quad 1 status — until an 82-58 loss to Texas Tech dropped them 21 spots. Now, playing the Tigers at home would be a Quad 2 game. A similar reality check could be in store for Georgia when conference play starts.

A season ago, 14 of Kentucky's 18 SEC games ended up being Quad 1 opportunities after the SEC's dominant nonconference run plated every SEC schedule in gold. The league dominated so significantly in November and December that it created a never-ending cycle for its teams of quality victories and losses that were virtually penalty-free.

But entering the weekend, just 10 of UK's 2026 league games are on track to be classified as Quad 1. That number would drop to nine if Georgia falls out of the NET's top 30.

While this weekend's slate features a larger volume of games, next weekend's docket will also carry high stakes for the SEC. Kentucky will take on No. 22 St. John's in the CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta before No. 17 Arkansas and No. 7 Houston play at the Prudential Center in New Jersey. Also on tap for Dec. 20 is a showdown between No. 21 Auburn and No. 6 Purdue in Indianapolis.

It may go against natural fan inclinations to cheer for conference rivals, but SEC hoops fans may want to swallow their pride the next two weekends. After a blockbuster 2024-25 campaign, the league's 2025-26 fate is hanging in the balance.