Don't expect College Football Playoff first-round blowouts like last year. Format tweaks should even the field

Last year's first-round matchups were snoozefests, but that will change in 2025

When the dust settled on the first round of the 2024 College Football Playoff, critics were ready to throw out the entire 12-team system. 

SMU got shellacked by Penn State, 38-10. Tennessee was outclassed against Ohio State, 42-17. In fact, first round games in the last CFP were decided by an average of 19.3 points. The nominal closest was a 10-point win by Notre Dame against Indiana. The Fighting Irish were up 24-3 at one point as the Hoosiers pulled close in garbage time. 

That first weekend was disappointing enough that many dismissed the entire size and structure of the field. However, don't fall into believing that's an inevitability of the system. The 2025 bracket will not suffer that same fate. 

The biggest reason for the change is simple: They fixed the bracket. Last year, conference champions were guaranteed a first-round bye. Because of that, the 5-seed and 6-seed in the field were actually No. 3 and 4 in the country. A first-round game between Texas and Clemson positioned No. 3 against No. 16. 

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That dynamic isn't completely gone, but it will improve dramatically with the matchups on deck. In the first round of the 2025 playoff, there's a heavyweight battle between No. 7 Texas A&M and No. 10 Miami at Kyle Field, two teams that flashed serious national championship upside. Then, No. 8 Oklahoma and No. 9 Alabama rematch their game from November, when the Sooners forced three turnovers to eke out a two-point victory in Tuscaloosa. 

James Madison will likely find itself in rough waters against Oregon, but the SP+ ratings believe the game stays within two touchdowns. And then, there's a fascinating rematch between a Tulane squad set to lose its staff with an Ole Miss team going through transition after the departure of Lane Kiffin to LSU. The first game featured transfer quarterback Jake Retzlaff making his second start and having a miserable game. The staff has figured out many more effective ways to use him since then. 

Granted, there's a good chance that at least one of the Group of Six matchups turns into a major blowout. Earlier this season, Ole Miss smacked Tulane 45-10. However, both the Dukes and Green Wave are far more fully formed than they were in September. 

And then, the two Power Four matchups have major implications. Texas A&M vs. Miami features two of the best trench teams in the entire College Football Playoff. Oklahoma is one of the nation's best defenses, while Alabama boasts more recruiting talent than anyone else. Neither game has the makings of a blowout; both teams are both too good and too flawed for that. 

It's easy to believe that the first round of the playoff is just doomed after seeing the lows of last season. But really, there's plenty of reasons to believe that many of the biggest issues were unique to a single season. 

More than any other, the biggest reason for the unbalanced first round last season resided in Columbus, Ohio. Ohio State frankly ruined the structure of the bracket after its head-scratching loss to Michigan last season. The most talented team in the country fell to the No. 8 seed because of its own indefensible stumbles. There isn't any such case in 2025. 

And really, it's harder than ever to create the kind of superteams that defined the late four-team playoff era because of NIL and the transfer portal. Following the 2022 season, the SP+ gap between the No. 5 and 10 teams in the country was nine points. This year, it's fewer than four points. The upper middle class of the sport is rising. Games are only getting more competitive as a result. 

When the 2025 College Football Playoff kicks off on Friday, Alabama and Oklahoma will provide a close, physical matchup. Texas A&M and Miami will feature national-caliber quarterbacks and playmakers. Ole Miss and Tulane each boast dynamic quarterbacks. Both James Madison and Oregon are incredibly well coached, even if multiple coaches on each staff are heading to new pastures very soon. 

There were low moments of the first 12-team College Football Playoff last year, but observers need to be patient. Every year is unique, and the flaws of a given year don't necessarily carry over to the next one.