Re-seeding the College Football Playoff bracket: Miami over Alabama leads to shift in New Year's Day bowls

Reshuffling the eight remaining teams in the CFP bracket as we enter the quarterfinals

It took a year, but road teams finally had success in the College Football Playoff. That didn't necessarily lead to significant changes when it comes to re-seeding the bracket, but if we shift the remaining eight teams, it would yield a compelling slate of matchups for New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.

Miami's hard-nosed, 10-3 upset of Texas A&M on the road Saturday lifts the Hurricanes above Alabama. That shift doesn't alter the top-end matchups -- Ohio State remains slotted for the Cotton Bowl, while Alabama still faces Indiana in the Rose Bowl -- but it does create a few intriguing changes deeper in the bracket.

As casual fans wonder if Group of Six schools belong in the College Football Playoff after James Madison and Tulane suffered double-digit losses, let's provide the public with a reminder: first-round games in last season's CFP were decided by 19.3 points and featured zero -- zero! -- upsets. In fact, it was the "bigger" schools, not the Group of Six, that suffered the worst losses in the first round: Ohio State drilled Tennessee by 25 points, while Penn State defeated SMU by four touchdowns.

Zooming out only reinforces the point. Since the CFP debuted in 2014 with a four-team format, the average margin of victory is 17.5 points. For the Group of Six teams, the average margin of defeat is 21.5 points. Overall, 71% of CFP games (32 of 45) have been decided by double digits. 

How soon we forget, how quick we overreact.

Who would argue against Boise State in 2024 or Cincinnati in 2021?

So, yes, feel free to argue about first-round blowouts until the quarterfinals kick off. There's plenty of airtime to fill and no shortage of writers and podcasters eager to debate the merits of including the "little guys." But the reality is access equals opportunity, and that should continue until the big boys get the courage to say the quiet part out loud: they want to break away from the system and stop subsidizing the lower-level programs.

Blame the College Football Playoff system for uneven fields? No, blame the powers who've upended the sport

Tom Fornelli

Lopsided results are a feature, not a bug, of postseason tournaments across amateur sports. You might believe every Group of Six team is pre-destined to be blown off the field. You were right this year. Heck, you might be right for the next five years. But that doesn't mean you will be right every year.

Northern Illinois defeated Notre Dame, the national runner-up, on the road last season as a four-touchdown underdog. (But, Brandon, that's just one game!) Yes, and one game is all that is needed to prove upsets can and will happen. They're just rarer on the biggest stages. That's college football -- it can feel predictable until it isn't.

If you're still bored with the first-round blowouts, just wait until the Super League or Almighty Alliance forms among the biggest brands in the sport. Only then will you get your wish. Closer games? Slightly closer (17.5- vs. 21.5-point margins). More concerning is that the Group of Six will be kicked to the curb, forced to fight for scraps as Cinderella remains locked in the basement. The sport has been drifting in that direction for five years, and as outlined this summer in our series on the future of college athletics, a breakaway feels less like a possibility and more like an eventuality.

No magical runs. No true underdogs. No hope -- no matter how small -- for smaller programs to remain competitive on the field and in the bank ledger.

Before the next existential crisis arrives, we re-rank the eight teams still standing -- look, Ma, all power programs! -- and reshuffle the bracket to produce a pair of fresh, compelling quarterfinal matchups.

1. Indiana

The Hoosiers got to watch the first round on TV thanks to a first-round bye. That's the good news. The bad news is that star defensive end Stephen Daley is lost for the playoff after suffering an injury during the massive victory against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Hoosiers are the only undefeated team remaining in the FBS but are looking for their first CFP win after going 0-1 last season. 

2. Ohio State

The Buckeyes didn't sit at home fuming over a loss to rival Michigan this time. However, you can bet they will still be motivated heading into the quarterfinals after losing the Big Ten title to the Hoosiers. Remarkably, Ohio State has an opportunity to win back-to-back national titles without ever hoisting the Big Ten trophy. That's the world we live in these days.

3. Georgia

Is Georgia the most dangerous team in the bracket? The Bulldogs have a nice draw thanks to a first-round bye. Plus, the defense has improved from week to week under the watchful eyes of Kirby Smart. The SEC champions are led by quarterback Gunner Stockton, a gamer and competitor who certainly remembers being pummeled into the turf by Notre Dame in the playoffs last season. The Bulldogs have that experience to draw upon for motivation.

4. Texas Tech

Texas Tech's big bet in the first year of the revenue-sharing era has paid off. The Red Raiders won the Big 12 title and enter the playoff with an impressive resume with only one loss and 12 wins by 20-plus points, the best total by any school in the AP poll era.

5. Ole Miss

The Pete Golding Era is off to a rousing start. The Rebels defeated Tulane 41-10 in the school's first playoff game to advance to the quarterfinals, where the Rebels will face Georgia for the second time this season. Trinidad Chambliss threw for 282 yards and scored three total touchdowns. And yes, Pete Golding has more playoff wins than Lane Kiffin.

6. Oregon

Oregon handled its business against James Madison in a 51-34 win that was effectively decided by halftime. The game was a laugher in the first half, but the Dukes scored at will against backups in the second half, dulling the Ducks' mood after the game. Even so, Oregon is equipped to win the national championship with a healthy roster clicking on all cylinders.

7. Miami

Miami's 10-3 upset of Texas A&M wasn't pretty, but it was still a work of football art. This game was a war in the trenches, ultimately won by the Hurricanes. Miami sacked Marcel Reed seven times, and Rueben Bain was a menace, recording three of those sacks. Freshman Malachi Toney scored the game-winning touchdown, but running back Mark Fletcher was the MVP on offense with 172 yards on only 17 carries.

8. Alabama

The Tide rallied from a 17-point deficit in the first round and stole the show from Oklahoma (and 50 Cent) in a 34-24 road victory. The offense still leaves a lot to be desired, particularly on the ground (28 yards), but Ty Simpson is a gamer (232 yards and two TDs), and the defense had a pick six during an incredible 27-0 scoring run.

Re-seeded quarterfinals

No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana (Rose Bowl): No change here. Curt Cignetti vs. Kalen DeBoer is a showcase of two of the sport's fastest-rising coaches. Cignetti is chasing his 25th win in two seasons at Indiana; a victory would put him alongside, yes, DeBoer as the only coaches in FBS history to reach that mark in their first two years. Indiana as a No. 1 seed and Rose Bowl favorite over the vaunted Tide remains wild, no matter how often it's repeated.

No. 7 Miami vs. No. 2 Ohio State (Cotton Bowl): Another unchanged pairing. Ohio State is coming off its first loss of the season but still owns the nation's top defense, allowing just 8.2 points per game. Both programs build from the trenches and share recruiting ties: Miami pursued Jeremiah Smith hard, while Hurricanes running back Mark Fletcher was once committed to the Buckeyes.

No. 5 Ole Miss vs. No. 4 Texas Tech (Orange Bowl): Here's where the re-seeding spices things up. Two CFP newcomers collide, each built through aggressive use of the transfer portal. Texas Tech ranks in the top three nationally on both offense and defense; Ole Miss sits 10th offensively and 22nd defensively. A fight to crown a new blue blood? Sign us up.

No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Georgia (Sugar Bowl): Mentor vs. student. The first time Dan Lanning coached against Kirby Smart, the Bulldogs drilled the Ducks 49-3 in Lanning's head-coaching debut in 2022. "He's going to do a really good job at Oregon," Smart said of Lanning in 2022. "He's relentless. He knows we've got better players. He'll never say it, but he knows it." Is that still true in 2025? At a minimum, the gap has narrowed, and this matchup would be far more entertaining.