College basketball Top 25 expert picks, lines, odds, top Saturday underdogs
Gary Parrish likes Notre Dame to cover against Florida State
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CBS Sports Staff
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5 min read
It's getting near the college basketball stretch run to March, and things are starting to heat up. Every game is always hotly contested at the college level, but the intensity will be ratcheting up with tournament berths and seeds on the line, so what better time to get some action of your own down.
If you're looking to make a little money, here are our experts' best bets and top underdog plays for Saturday.
Gary Parrish
Notre Dame -1 over Florida State
The Irish aren't ranked anymore. But that's only because AP voters overreacted to their recent four-game losing streak and dropped them out of the Top 25. In other words, I'm still a believer. This is still one of the nation's best 25 teams. And I'll lay a little number with Notre Dame at home against almost anybody.
Iowa State -8.5 over Oklahoma
The Sooners are on a six-game losing streak and don't seem likely to snap it inside Hilton Coliseum against a team that won at Kansas last weekend. So it's just a matter of Iowa State covering the number. And as long as the number isn't a double-digit number, I'm comfortable. Because I think the Cyclones will win by double-digits.
The Cougars are sneaky good -- a legit top-40 KenPom team on a four-game winning streak. Kelvin Sampson is doing a nice job. So I'll gladly lay three points with Houston against a Tulsa team that's lost its past two games by a combined 45 points.
Top Underdog: USF +3 over East Carolina
South Florida is 0-12 in the American Athletic Conference. That's a hard and depressing thing to be. But the Bulls can't lose every game, can they? They have to win eventually. And one of their last decent chances is this home game against East Carolina. So give me USF ... strrrrraaaaaight up! Shouts to Murry Bartow!
Matt Norlander
Belmont -10 at Tennessee Tech
Longtime readers know that I consider Rick Byrd -- truly -- to be one of the best coaches in college basketball. I'm talking top-20 stuff. And guess, what? Belmont's romping through the Ohio Valley this season, beating opponents with ease by a double-digit average. The Bruins are also undefeated in league play, and I expect them to win by 15-18 points at Tennessee Tech.
San Francisco -1 vs. BYU
Kyle Smith's first year at USF has been splendid. He's got the team at 18-8, already three wins ahead of last season's total. The Dons will get an offensive challenge from BYU, but because Smith's team has been so good on defense, I think this game winds up showing us that USF is a top-four WCC team this season. The Dons have won seven of their past eight. Only loss? At Saint Mary's.
Kansas -4.5 at Texas Tech
The Jayhawks' number here is lower than I would've predicted by two points. Texas Tech is not as good as its record. The Red Raiders played the worst non-conference schedule of any team in college basketball this season, and now they're 4-7 in a loaded Big 12. I don't think TTU has the backcourt to keep up with Kansas, and Josh Jackson should feast here.
Top Underdog: Saint Mary's +4 vs. Gonzaga
Absolutely love this pick. The Gaels rate as a top-20 team on multiple metrics, and here's the deal: While Gonzaga is so very good this season, it's unreasonable to expect any team -- if though the Zags rank as No. 1 -- to be favored by more than three points on the road. It's very hard to win on the road. The Gaels qualify as a legitimate opponent, one of the three toughest GU will face this season. So, yes, in getting the four points, it's a good call. But I also like SMC ... strrrrrrrrrrraight up!
Chip Patterson
Iowa State -8.5 vs. Oklahoma
It feels like Oklahoma's best chance to beat Iowa State already came and went with the Cyclones double-overtime win in Norman earlier this year. Offensively, the Sooners can't really match up here and if covering the spread comes down to the final moments in a one-sided matchup I'm going to take the team fighting for a NCAA Tournament spot over the team that's dropped nine of 11 in Big 12 play.
Louisville -10.5 vs. Miami
If Louisville doesn't turn in a good performance with Deng Adel and Mangok Mathiang back in the lineup following their one-game punishment for missing curfew, it'll be a big surprise. Prior to the shorthanded loss at Virginia, the Cardinals were pounding their opponents and starting to look like a team ready to contend for the ACC championship. I think we see more of that group after Rick Pitino laid down the law this week.
Texas Tech +4.5 vs. Kansas
I think Kansas wins this game, but I love the chances of the Red Raiders taking them down to the wire on Saturday afternoon. For picking purposes I'd make sure you get this game at 4 or 4.5 and stay away if the number drops to 3.5, but overall I still see value in picking Chris Beard's team to keep this close.
Top Underdog: Mississippi State +4 vs. South Carolina
South Carolina's has had plenty of time to recover physically from 60 minutes of hoops against Alabama earlier in the week, but will the quadruple overtime loss linger into the Gamecocks' next contest? Mississippi State has covered the spread in each of its last four SEC home games and I think they have a good shot to pull off the upset on Saturday night.
Kyle Boone
1. Kansas State +10.5 vs. West Virginia
The once red-hot Mountaineers have cooled considerably of late, suffering four losses in conference play already. Even more surprising, all four have come to unranked opponents -- with two coming at home. Bruce Weber's Wildcats have pulled out two huge road wins in Big 12 play, most recently an upset over Baylor. This is too many points.
2. Alabama +7.5 vs. Kentucky
Calipari implemented a reboot with the team earlier this week to shore up some defensive deficiencies, capped with a three-hour practice. But I don't think those issues get solved in a week. I think Alabama, which is coming off a dramatic 4OT conference win, will keep its momentum rolling into this one and keep it within a few points.
3. Oklahoma State -10 vs. Texas
After an 0-6 start in Big 12 play, the Cowboys have answered the bell with wins in five of their last six, nearly knocking off Baylor after an upset over West Virginia. OSU secretly boasts the second most efficient offense in the country behind UCLA, and I don't think the Longhorns have anyone who can hold Jawun Evans in check. Look for the Stillwater crowd to put this one out of reach early.
Top Underdog: Texas Tech +4.5 vs. Kansas
Desperate for a resume boosting win, Texas Tech is in as close to a must-win type game as you can imagine for it being only February. The Red Raiders are 4-7 in Big 12 play and outside a win over West Virginia, its resume is severely lacking. Never underestimate a desperate home team no matter the opponent. I'm picking the Red Raiders straight up.
