Why each team in CFP can win national title, from Indiana's efficiency to James Madison's chaos blueprint

Each team in the field brings something to the table that could help carry them to glory come Jan. 19 in Miami

Any team in the College Football Playoff can win it all -- well, maybe not realistically, but anything is possible. After another chaotic regular season, the 12-team bracket is set, and nothing is decided until the first snap.

There are the obvious national championship contenders: No. 1 Indiana, No. 2 Ohio State, and No. 3 Georgia, each bringing a mix of talent and coaching that makes them hard to beat. Even so, it feels like more than a handful of teams are truly in the mix, including those capable of ripping through a first-round game before getting on a roll, like the Buckeyes did last year in the inaugural 12-team CFP.

Whether ideal or not, two teams from the Group of Five are in the field, hoping to engineer a March Madness Cinderella-like run -- a feat far trickier in college football than in basketball, where one hot streak can carry a team. Still, the bracket gives both No. 11 Tulane and No. 12 James Madison a path out of the first round.

2025 College Football Playoff Coach Rankings: Kirby Smart, Curt Cignetti among leaders in 12-team field

Chip Patterson

Who will emerge? The favorites, the underdogs, the sleepers -- all have a chance. Here's one reason each of the 12 teams can navigate the bracket and stake a claim to the national championship in Miami Gardens on Jan. 19, 2026.

(1) Indiana: Efficiency reigns supreme

Indiana has been the most efficient team in college football this season, proving last year's success certainly wasn't a fluke. The Hoosiers enter the CFP as the last remaining unbeaten team in major college football. They are the only FBS team ranked top five in both offensive EPA per play (0.24) and defensive EPA per play (0.20), lead the FBS in offensive success rate (55.8%), rank sixth in defensive success rate (62.8%) and are No. 1 in havoc rate on defense (22.1%). All of this comes despite being dead last in the Big Ten in 247Sports Team Talent Composite, a testament to elite coaching under Curt Cignetti and his staff. Indiana's efficiency and opportunistic defense give them a real path to a national championship. Yes, seriously. Odds: +320

(2) Ohio State: No obvious weakness

Ohio State arguably has the toughest path to a repeat national championship, but even with that challenge, there's no glaring weakness on this roster. The loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game might have been the best thing to happen for the Buckeyes -- exposing areas to tighten and giving the team a reality check before the CFP grind. Ohio State has pound-for-pound the best roster in college football, boasting four CBS Sports first-team All-Americans: WR Jeremiah Smith, DT Kayden McDonald, LB Arvell Reese, and S Caleb Downs -- not to mention a Heisman Trophy finalist in quarterback Julian Sayin. The Buckeyes remain one of the most complete teams in the field and a favorite to make another title run. Odds: +190

(3) Georgia: Championship pedigree

Who's the best coach in the CFP field? Some might say Indiana's Curt Cignetti off the top of their head. But the obvious answer is Kirby Smart. He already has two national championships in the trophy case, along with a fourth SEC Championship earlier this month -- avenging Georgia's only loss of the season to Alabama. The Bulldogs look every bit like the dominant and vicious team from previous years: a roster full of NFL-caliber talent, a defense that shuts down both the run and the pass, and an offense that's improved. Georgia exudes the kind of championship DNA that starts with the coach. Odds: +600

(4) Texas Tech: Nightmare defense

Texas Tech's defensive unit is a nightmare for offenses at every level. Led by a trio of CBS Sports' All-Americans in Jacob Rodriguez, David Bailey and Lee Hunter, as well as standouts Romello Height and A.J. Holmes Jr., the front six controls the line of scrimmage while the secondary punishes mistakes. The Red Raiders allow an FBS-low 2.3 yards per carry and rank top five in pass defense at 5.4 yards per attempt, but their real edge is turnovers: Texas Tech leads the nation with 15 fumble recoveries and is 10th with 16 interceptions while giving up just 11 touchdowns. They've surrendered more than 20 points only once, and that was in a game without starting quarterback Behren Morton. This is a unit capable of grinding down even the most explosive CFP offenses -- a strength that would be tested against likely Oregon and Indiana matchups en route to the national championship. Odds: +850

(5) Oregon: Untapped firepower

We haven't seen the full Oregon offense all season. Talented receivers Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. missed much of the back half of the year, and Dan Lanning hasn't ruled out the possibility of Evan Stewart making his season debut. If those weapons return, quarterback Dante Moore and the Ducks become a completely different -- and much more dangerous --offensive team that can balance a strong rushing attack with the ability to push the ball downfield and make big plays. Sure, Oregon opens against James Madison in the first round, and for as much as we all love a Cinderella story, the Ducks are heavily favored. A quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl against Texas Tech looms next, where Oregon's full arsenal could finally click and make them a legitimate national title contender. Odds: +800

(6) Ole Miss: Hell hath no fury like a program scorned

Okay, maybe that's not the saying, but emotions are running high in Oxford after Lane Kiffin's abrupt exit to LSU just weeks before the CFP -- blame college football's calendar or Kiffin's poor judgement but either way, the Rebels are playing with something to prove. Much of the staff remains intact, with offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. rejoining Ole Miss and defensive coordinator Pete Golding continuing to make the calls while stepping into the head coaching role.

The talent hasn't gone anywhere, either. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has emerged as a star and continues to elevate his game, giving the Rebels a centerpiece capable of carrying an offense in the postseason. There's also no mystery in Ole Miss' path: a first-round matchup against Tulane and a potential quarterfinal showdown with Georgia, which won 43-35 after the Rebels squandered a nine-point, fourth-quarter lead. Familiarity, continuity and a motivated locker room give Ole Miss a real chance to turn unfinished business into a playoff run. Odds: +2200

(7) Texas A&M: A matchup-proof offense

The Aggies stand out as one of the most complete teams in the field -- and arguably the most complete among teams that didn't earn a first-round bye. Texas A&M has won shootouts, survived physical games and shown it can deliver key defensive stops when needed. Quarterback Marcel Reed was firmly in the Heisman Trophy conversation before the loss to Texas. He's surrounded by playmakers everywhere. Transfer wideouts KC Concepcion and Mario Craver have combined for 1,711 yards and 14 touchdowns, while Rueben Owens II and Le'Veon Moss form an effective backfield that complements Reed's own mobility. The Aggies have been held under 30 points just twice all season, giving them the kind of balance and offensive ceiling needed to survive four CFP games. Odds: +1900

(8) Oklahoma: Defense built to win games

How good is Oklahoma's defense? Good enough to bail out shaky performances from quarterback John Mateer -- including a three-interception outing against LSU with the CFP bid on the line -- and still win. The Sooners rank top three among Power Four teams against FBS opponents in defensive success rate (65.5%), defensive EPA per play (0.17) and havoc rate (21.6%) this season. The scary part: defensive end R. Mason Thomas, who missed the last three games with an injury, is expected back at practice this week. Oklahoma gets after the opposing quarterback as well as any team in the country, racking up 41 sacks -- tied for the most in the FBS. It doesn't matter how inconsistent Oklahoma's own offense can be; its ability to disrupt the quarterback and force mistakes on the other side gives them a real shot to make noise in the CFP. Odds: +5000

(9) Alabama: Health, depth could spark a turnaround

No one would argue that Alabama limped into the CFP after getting thumped by Georgia in the SEC Championship Game and scraping by with a total point margin of just +2 since what should have been a loss at South Carolina in late October. But the Crimson Tide could be trending in the right direction as they start to get healthy for their first CFP run without Nick Saban at the helm. Running back Jam Miller, who missed the SEC title game and left Alabama with -3 rushing yards in that matchup, has returned to practice, Kalen DeBoer said, while tight end Josh Cuevas, center Parker Brailsford and guard Kam Dewberry have been participating fully. Defensive end LT Overton remains doubtful. With a healthier lineup, Alabama's traditionally dominant rushing attack -- so anemic without Miller -- can return to form, giving the Crimson Tide a path to regain the balance and physicality they need to make a serious CFP run. Odds: +2500

(10) Miami: Carson Beck's renewed confidence

Mario Cristobal's Hurricanes have been playing like their season depends on every snap since the overtime loss at SMU on Nov. 1, and few teams have looked as balanced and confident as Miami over the final four weeks of the regular season. Quarterback Carson Beck has been on a heater, leading Power Four quarterbacks since Week 11 with 12 touchdown passes and a 79.5% completion rate. Much of Miami's success this season has stemmed from Beck's renewed confidence and careful ball management -- the Hurricanes are 8-0 when he throws fewer than two interceptions but just 1-2 when he throws two or more. If Beck continues to protect the football and his offense clicks, Miami has the weapons to make a deep run in the CFP in pursuit of their first national championship since 2001. Odds: +2500

(11) Tulane: Built to disrupt and control games

The Green Wave get a first-round rematch with Ole Miss after a 45-10 loss in September, and there's plenty of uncertainty about how the Rebels will respond with Lane Kiffin already in Baton Rouge. Sure, Jon Sumrall has been juggling life between New Orleans and Gainesville, but Tulane has quietly emerged as one of the best Group of Five programs since 2022 when it rolled to 12 wins and a Cotton Bowl title. The American's strength is nothing to sneeze at -- Tulane has wins over ACC champion Duke and bowl-eligible Northwestern -- and the Green Wave boast the third-lowest sack rate allowed (2.5%) while tying for second-best sack differential (+24) and ninth-best turnover margin (+10). If the stars align, Tulane could turn a rematch into redemption -- and maybe more. Odds: +75000

(12) James Madison: Underdogs with blueprint for chaos

Founding Father and fourth U.S. President James Madison didn't fight for liberty so a university bearing his name would settle for a participation prize in the CFP. The Dukes earned their spot in the 12-team bracket and, like many underdogs before them, arrive with a chip on their shoulder and something to prove. 

There's been plenty of discussion about James Madison's strength of schedule -- just one game against a top-50 opponent in CBS Sports' 136 rankings and seven against teams outside the top 100 -- but history shows that double-digit seeds in any playoff aren't just along for the ride.

The Dukes are in just their third season as an FBS member and already own a 2-2 record against Power Four opponents. Their sneaky, suffocating defense could give anyone fits -- especially if James Madison gets past Oregon and avoids a potential semifinal clash with former coach Curt Cignetti and Indiana. The Dukes rank No. 1 in the FBS in defensive success rate (66.2%) and seventh in defensive EPA per play (0.16). Odds: +75000