College Football Playoff odds, picks, predictions: Alabama vs. Oklahoma, Miami vs. Texas A&M lead first round
CBS Sports experts Brad Crawford and Chris Hummer reveal their picks for the playoff's first-round games

The College Football Playoff's first round kicks off Friday night with Alabama at Oklahoma, an SEC rematch from the regular season that sets the table for Saturday's triple-header -- Miami at Texas A&M, Tulane at Ole Miss and James Madison at Oregon. Final picks and predictions for this quartet are in, with winners moving on to the quarterfinals against the top four seeds: Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia and Texas Tech on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
Alabama and Texas A&M the only teams playing this weekend who lost their previous games, the Crimson Tide suffering a setback against Georgia in the SEC Championship while the Aggies' unblemished streak ended during rivalry weekend at Texas.
This year's playoff bracket marks the first time in history that two Group of Five teams are in the field. No. 11 seed Tulane has an uphill climb against Ole Miss and James Madison travels to Oregon as a three-touchdown underdog.
Chris Hummer and I have wiped the slate clean from the regular season and we're starting fresh in the playoff. We'll have picks over the next few weeks for the biggest matchups remaining in the postseason, leading up to the national championship on Jan. 19. For clarity, these lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.
(11) Tulane at (6) Ole Miss
Hummer (Ole Miss -17.5): A rare rematch of nonconference play, this game has a slightly different tenor than the last time these two met. Obviously, Lane Kiffin is gone and the Rebels underwent one of the most distracting sagas in recent memory when Kiffin left for LSU. Tulane is also competing under different circumstances given that Jon Sumrall is working part-time for his future employer Florida. But really this game is about what happens between the lines, and we've already seen how mismatched these teams are. Ole Miss nearly doubled Tulane's yardage (548-282) the first time. The Rebels owned the line of scrimmage and tore apart an often-shaky Tulane secondary. Are the Green Wave a better team two months later? For sure. But the matchup is still problematic, particularly with the game taking place in Oxford once again. ... Ole Miss 38, Tulane 20.
Crawford (Tulane +17.5): Will this game look any different than the Rebels' 35-point beatdown of the Green Wave in September? It should. Lane Kiffin's absence will be felt offensively, even if Trinidad Chambliss is able to find a rhythm in the passing game. Where it matters most will be game management and flow. How often will Ole Miss go for it on fourth down or take shots downfield? Will the Rebels be more conservative without Kiffin calling the shots? These are simply unknowns that should play into your wager here if you're taking the underdogs and 17.5 points. .... Ole Miss 31, Tulane 17.
(12) James Madison at (5) Oregon
Hummer (Oregon -21.5): This is a tough matchup for James Madison. The Dukes do everything really, really well. They're also a Group of Five program and about to go against the fastest team in the country. Oh yeah, did I mention the Ducks also have several draft picks along the lines of scrimmage? It's just a bad matchup, particularly if you give Oregon weeks to prepare. Remember, James Madison coach Bob Chesney is preparing to be UCLA's head coach. Oregon is just focused on doing what it fell short of last year -- winning a national title. Maybe James Madison plays really well and keeps it close for most of the day. I just think it has the potential to get ugly with the Ducks producing a ton of chunk plays. ... Oregon 42, James Madison 20.
Crawford (Oregon -21.5): For those griping about potential lopsided first-round layoff matchups, we had plenty of one-sided semifinal games in the previous four-team era and saw several non-competitive games in last year's playoff, including the Rose Bowl -- it just happens in the postseason. This is one game in the opening round that's not going to be close given the talent differential for each unless Dukes running back Wayne Knight is able to make something happen. JMU would not have reached the playoff had Virginia handled its business against Duke in the ACC Championship Game, but here we are and the Ducks will benefit. ... Oregon 41, James Madison 10.
(9) Alabama at (8) Oklahoma
Hummer (Alabama -1.5): A rematch of one of the most confusing results of the 2025 season, Alabama must travel to Norman in hopes of changing the result from earlier in the season. Oklahoma upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa, 23-21, despite being outgained by 194 yards. That lopsided yardage differential didn't matter because of a trio of Alabama turnovers and horrid play in the red zone. That game was a hint of overall struggles for the Tide offense, which hasn't cleared the 30-point barrier against Power Four competition since Oct. 18. That could once again be a problem against an elite Oklahoma defense.
At the same time ... I just can't pick the Sooners because of their offense. Alabama is a slightly above-average offensive attack. Oklahoma is bad at 93rd nationally in yards per play. The Sooners are just an OK passing offense (even as John Mateer struggles with turnovers) but they're a horrid rushing offense at 108th nationally in rushing yards per play. Maybe a truly disruptive Sooners defense can continue to carry their offense. It's possible. But it's just not something I'd be willing to bet on a second time against one of the most talented teams in the country. If Ty Simpson takes care of the ball, the Crimson Tide get the road win. ... Alabama 24, Oklahoma 21.
Crawford (Alabama -1.5): Not trying to make any enemies in Norman this week, but the Sooners didn't play all that well late this season despite ending the campaign on a four-game win streak to reach the playoff. Maybe it's the eye test, which is subjective, but more often that not this offensive attack with John Mateer at the helm failed to impress and Oklahoma was able to win despite its deficiencies on that side of the football. Alabama wasn't any better by comparison. In fact, the Crimson Tide lost that first matchup with the Sooners despite a sizable yardage advantage and is limping into the first round after getting their feelings hurt in Atlanta.
I'm siding with the more experienced playoff coach here and that's Kalen Deboer. His cry to rally the troops Sunday evening with his statement on the Michigan job noise is how you handle rumors -- you shut them down before they entirely engulf your preparation. Alabama's favored for a reason despite this game being away from home. Take the under and the Crimson Tide. ... Alabama 23, Oklahoma 20.
(10) Miami at (7) Texas A&M
Hummer (Texas A&M -3.5): This should be by far the most exciting game of the first round. These are two evenly matched teams with some of the best line of scrimmage play you'll see all season. Miami has a line of scrimmage advantage in almost any game it plays. That won't be the case against the Aggies. There are a few key areas I'll be watching. First, who can establish the run? Miami, despite an elite pass blocking offensive line, is just an OK rushing team ranking 80th nationally in yards per carry. Texas A&M is very much a run-first offense, but Miami is a top 10 rush defense. The winner of that matchup is going to have a big say in the direction of this game.
The other area I'm watching closely in this one is the quarterbacks. Carson Beck can be a bit turnover prone. Marcel Reed can go through extended cold stretches. Both are going to have to play at a very high level against excellent secondaries to find success. It's hard to find obvious on-paper edges in this game between two really good teams. But there are two areas I think favor Texas A&M: 1. It's going to be LOUD in College Station. It doesn't matter that it's an 11 a.m. kickoff. That will be by far the most crazed road environment the Hurricanes have seen all season. 2. Game control. I just trust Mike Elko to manage the game a bit better than Mario Cristobal down the stretch. Give me the Aggies. ... Texas A&M 28, Miami 24.
Crawford (Miami +3.5): The Hurricanes just wanted a chance and well, they've got it in the form of a one-loss SEC titan who nearly secured a top-four seed after 11 straight wins to begin the season. If I'm Miami offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson, I've spent the last few weeks adding a couple tweaks to the game plan to try and get Malachi Toney even more touches. He's a lightning bolt in the open field and reminds me a lot of former Miami star Devin Hester when he makes the first defender miss. Texas A&M's KC Concepcion is equally notable and is a threat in the return game, too.
Turnover margin is going to decide this game, which I think will be the best of the playoff's opening-round. Miami has 20 takeaways this season, more than double Texas A&M's total and if the Hurricanes can pressure Marcel Reed, that's going to lead to a critical mistake in the passing game. Give me the Hurricanes on the moneyline in a nail-biter at Kyle Field. ... Miami 27, Texas A&M 24.
















