Why the Big Ten's College Football Playoff reign will continue: Key factors favor Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon

The Big Ten is well positioned to capture its third straight national championship

Urban Meyer's bold offseason claim that the Big Ten has passed the SEC is back in the forefront entering the 2025 College Football Playoff. Following Michigan's unbeaten run in 2023 and Ohio State's unexpected masterpiece last year, the league is the favorite to win its third straight national championship with No. 1 Indiana, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 5 Oregon carrying the torch after terrific showings during the regular season.

Only the Ducks are in action this week in the first round, hosting No. 12 James Madison on Saturday night. Other opening-round matchups include No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma (Friday night), along with No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M and No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss.

Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia and Texas Tech will await those winners at bowl sites in the quarterfinals, each being three wins away from a title.

Here are five reasons why the Big Ten's CFP reign will continue with the Hoosiers, Buckeyes or Ducks lifting the trophy on Jan. 19 in Miami Gardens, Florida.

5. Three of the SEC's five teams are limping

There's no better time than now to play Oklahoma, which hasn't scored more than two offensive touchdowns since Oct. 25. Can Alabama recover from how it has looked the last month and change? How will Ole Miss respond without Lane Kiffin? These are all net positives for the Big Ten's title quest and questions we don't yet have answers for entering the postseason.

Since beating Tennessee in Week 8, Alabama's only victory over a team with a winning record was LSU on Nov. 8. The Crimson Tide's running game was non-existent during that stretch and quarterback Ty Simpson has lost confidence, throwing four of his five interceptions this season over his last four starts.

It's hard to pinpoint how the Rebels will perform without Kiffin calling the shots, but they do have the majority of their former coaching staff for the playoff under new head coach Pete Golding. Where this loss will have the most significance is game flow and decision-making, especially in critical situations. Kiffin pulled all the right strings for the Rebels with transfer quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, but is no longer the guy filtering the information and reading the defense for his quarterback.

Third-seeded SEC champion Georgia is the league's lone representative who has looked the part in recent weeks. Even Texas A&M looked human down the stretch after losing at Texas and needing a record-setting effort in the second half to overcome a 27-point deficit to 4-8 South Carolina. Georgia's 21-point beatdown of the Crimson Tide in Atlanta was the Bulldogs' ninth consecutive victory, a run that also includes impressive wins over Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech. They're battle-tested, but may not have an offensive scheme conducive to playing catch-up should they get in an early hole against Ohio State in a potential semifinal.

College Football Playoff odds, picks, predictions: Alabama vs. Oklahoma, Miami vs. Texas A&M lead first round

Brad Crawford

4. Ohio State's defense should feast

The Buckeyes' unit on Matt Patricia's side of the football is historically-dominant this season, allowing jut 8.2 points per game. They've given up only 10 touchdowns in 13 games, six fewer than Georgia's all-time unit in 2021 that captured a national title (across 15 games). Ohio State held eight opponents to single digits and only two -- Illinois and Penn State -- scored multiple touchdowns against the Buckeyes. 

If Ohio State's sixth-ranked rushing defense gives its usual effort and shuts down the ground game in the second round against Miami or Texas A&M, then Carson Beck and Marcel Reed would be playing into the teeth of the Buckeyes' secondary, an obvious team strength. Beck and Reed have combined for 20 interceptions this season and being one-dimensional against this defense would not be advantageous. From there, Ohio State would play the Ole Miss-Georgia winner (projected) to set up a potential rematch in the national championship with Indiana.

3. Best player in the bracket fuels Indiana

You know why Curt Cignetti's confidence this season is not to be confused with arrogance? He's got arguably the best quarterback in the country executing at a near-perfect level. Fernando Mendoza, who engineered go-ahead touchdown drives in the fourth quarter at Oregon, Iowa and Penn State, enters the playoff with 33 touchdown passes as the leader of the Hoosiers. You've heard his team-first messaging. Those surrounding Mendoza in the huddle and on the sideline believe, and that's half the battle when you're attempting something that's never been done before at Indiana. During a season of firsts, the Hoosiers are three wins away from a perfect season and their first national crown.

2. Favorable paths to semifinals

Two of the Big Ten's three selections have opening-round byes with the other virtually getting one as a three-touchdown home favorite against James Madison. The likelihood of top-seeded Indiana losing to the Alabama-Oklahoma winner in the quarters is slim given the late-season struggles those two teams have shown offensively while Ohio State gets Texas A&M or Miami. The Aggies and Hurricanes combined for the same number of ranked wins as Ohio State this season (2).

No disrespect to Texas Tech, but the majority of our national analysts see Oregon as a shoo-in to the semifinals during that expected 4 vs. 5 matchup in the second round. Ironically, the only time this season the Red Raiders' vaunted defense had to combat an offense with a prolific quarterback and wide receiver combo, Texas Tech lost the game (26-22 at Arizona State, thanks to Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson). The Ducks are expecting good news on the injury front with speedy playmaker Dakorien Moore, who's been out since late October with an injury and is working to get himself back for the playoff.

1. Where are the scary, non-Big Ten juggernauts?

We just watched No. 1 vs. No. 2 go at it in Indianapolis in a matchup of gladiators coming down to the wire after both teams drew blood throughout. Meanwhile, the conference championship games in the SEC and Big 12 were non-competitive and those were supposedly pairing the two best teams from each league against one another. The playoff selection committee only moved Ohio State one spot back from its top perch after championships weekend and there's no disagreement here.

If you power rank the playoff field, perhaps most responses would slot Oregon outside of the top four. However, when you consider how the Ducks finished the season with wins over Iowa, Minnesota, USC and Washington in November, this team has caught fire at the right time. Also, the committee did the Big Ten a favor by removing Notre Dame from the mix. Most sportsbooks had the Fighting Irish high on their lists of national championship favorites before the final bracket reveal and Notre Dame's subsequent diss to bowl season. Now, Ohio State (+220), Indiana (+290) and Oregon (+750) represent three of the top four frontrunners over at FanDuel.

Georgia and Texas Tech are the two primary threats to this conference's third straight national championship, but neither is particularly frightening when you consider who the Bulldogs and Red Raiders would have to go through to knock the Big Ten from its throne.