College Football Playoff Rankings prediction: SEC, ACC, Big Ten each start with three teams in top 10

Jerry Palm provides his prediction for how the CFP Rankings would look in its first release Tuesday night

With the initial College Football Playoff Rankings for the 2020 season set to be released Tuesday night, we do not want to wait that long to get a taste of how the CFP Selection Committee will be ranking the top 25 teams in the nation. This is a warm up act for the warm up act, which are all of the CFP Rankings releases before the final one after conference championship week.

Check out the first College Football Playoff Rankings released Tuesday night.

Normally, I would detail here some of the criteria the CFP Selection Committee uses to rank the top 25 teams and choose the top four. However, nothing about 2020 is normal, and that includes the information available to the committee.  Here is the entire list of criteria for 2020:

• Eye test
• Head-to-head record (if applicable)
• Conference championship (if applicable)

That's it. No strength of schedule or relative offense or any other analytic because four conferences have statistically distanced themselves from the rest of college football by playing only conference games. For example, mathematically speaking, there is no way to compare teams from the SEC to teams from the Big Ten or any other league for that matter.

Even some of the ancillary categories discussed -- wins over teams above .500, wins over ranked teams -- are not helpful.  The lack of nonconference games has some teams on either side of that .500 line would not normally be in those positions. The Big Ten and Pac-12 weren't even eligible to be ranked in the AP Top 25 for much of the season, so some teams were in the bottom of those rankings that normally would not have been placed there, especially early on. Going by game-time rankings is illegitimate anyway.

Due to COVID-19, the committee will have more roster issues to consider with than ever before. How much that concerns them is yet to be determined. It will also have to factor in teams playing an unequal number of games. It is unchartered territory.

With all of that in mind, here is what I think the CFP Rankings would look like if released this week.

Note: Predictions in this story are based only on results to this point, so they do not reflect the final forecast for the playoff. My current playoff and bowl projections can be found here.

College Football Playoff Rankings prediction

1	Alabama
Alabama destroyed Kentucky 63-3 after the Crimson Tide saw the LSU game drop off the schedule the week before. No team has come within 15 points of Alabama yet this season. The Iron Bowl is next up on Saturday.
2	Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish had a scheduled week off and will face the only team left on its schedule that figures to be a challenge. They are on the road to face 6-2 North Carolina.
3	Ohio St.
Ohio State thought it had Indiana put away 3 minutes into the second half, but the Buckeyes offense disappeared and the Hoosiers rallied only to fall short, 42-35. Considering that Indiana was the first good team Ohio State had faced, the lack of a killer instinct could see them go lower this week.
4	Clemson
The Tigers are still waiting to get back on the field after the loss to Notre Dame back on Nov. 7. Dabo Swinney is still ticked that their game at Florida State was called off at the last second on Saturday. Clemson will look to take out some frustration on Pitt this weekend and we should finally get to see Trevor Lawrence back on the field.
5	Texas A&M
The Aggies have also been off since Nov. 7 due to COVID-19 issues within the program. They have played pretty well since getting trounced by Alabama, including a win over Florida. Texas A&M is back in action this week against LSU.
6	Florida
Florida has been laying waste to its schedule since the loss to the Aggies. The Gators got off to a slow start against Vanderbilt last week but came away with a 38-17 win. They get Kentucky at home after the Wildcats lost by 60 to Alabama last week.
7	Northwestern
The Wildcats took down Wisconsin 17-7 at home to put themselves in the driver's seat of the Big Ten West. Northwestern now has wins over the three teams behind it in the division standings. The Wildcats have their final cross-division game at Michigan State on Saturday.
8	Cincinnati
The Bearcats got a good test at UCF on Saturday and came away with a 36-33 win. Their playoff chances are still pretty remote, but they have reached the point where they might be able to take a loss at Tulsa in a few weeks and still get the New Year's Six spot as the highest-rated Group of Five champion.
9	Miami (Fla.)
The Hurricanes are currently on a COVID-19 break in their schedule and will next take the field Dec. 5 at Wake Forest. Miami could still make the ACC Championship Game, but the Canes would need some help.
10	Indiana
The Hoosiers put a scare into Ohio State but fell short, 42-35. Despite some of the other big names Indiana has faced so far, this will be considered its most impressive performance of the season by far. The Hoosiers host Maryland, which has also been off since Nov. 7. The Terrapins are the only other team in the Big Ten East besides the Buckeyes with a winning record.
11	BYU
BYU has all but finished making its case to the committee. The Cougars throttled North Alabama and now wait until Dec. 12 to play again unless something comes up. BYU turned down a chance to play at Washington this week after the Huskies game with Washington State was canceled.
12	Oregon
The Ducks got a scare from UCLA late but survived to win, 38-35. With the problems the Pac-12 is experiencing getting games played, the Ducks need to not only keep winning but also just keep playing. A 7-0 record should get them in the College Football Playoff. If that number of wins gets smaller due to games being canceled, their chances will dwindle.
13	Wisconsin
The Badgers couldn't get anything going offensively against Northwestern, and their chances of winning the Big Ten are pretty much gone. Wisconsin could still find its way to a New Year's Six game if it wins out, but that is not definite. The Badgers' game with Minnesota this week is in some question after the Gophers canceled Tuesday's practice over COVID-19 concerns.
14	Iowa St.
The Cyclones pounded Kansas State and now sit alone atop the Big 12 standings at 6-1. ISU would be much higher on this list of not for a season-opening loss to Louisiana. The Cyclones still have a couple of tough games left, beginning Friday at Texas.
15	Oklahoma
Oklahoma keeps rolling along toward a possible Big 12 championship. The Sooners smoked rival Oklahoma State 41-13 on Saturday to push closer to a spot in the championship game. They will travel to West Virginia on Saturday to face the Mountaineers, who have yet to lose at home.
16	USC
The Trojans won at Utah for the first time in their last four games in Salt Lake City. The 33-17 win moved USC to 3-0 and was the first comfortable win of the season for the Trojans after two late-game scares.
17	Georgia
Quarterback JT Daniels made his debut for the Bulldogs in their 31-24 win over Mississippi State. There isn't much Georgia can do to make an impression on the committee at this point. The Bulldogs' remaining games are at South Carolina and at home to Vanderbilt, the two teams at the bottom of the SEC East.
18	Oklahoma St.
The Cowboys never got out of the gate in a 41-13 loss at Oklahoma. They will need some help now if they are to get to play for the Big 12 title.
19	C. Carolina
The Chanticleers defeated Appalachian State for the first time ever, 34-23. CCU can clinch a spot in the Sun Belt Championship Game with a win at Texas State on Saturday.
20	Marshall
Marshall saw its game with Charlotte last week postponed and the Thundering Herd has a scheduled week off this week. When they come back on Dec. 5 against Rice, they will be playing to clinch a spot in the Conference USA Championship Game.
21	Texas
The Longhorns are still in the hunt for a shot at the Big 12 title and can pick up a key win over one of the other contenders when they host Iowa State this Friday. That win could also create a four-way tie at the top of the standings and give Texas a leg up in the tiebreaker.
22	Tulsa
Tulsa seems to be in tight games every time out and it had another remarkable finish on Saturday. The Golden Hurricane completed a Hail Mary pass to force overtime, then won it on a pick six. They are at Houston this week hoping to stay undefeated in conference play.
23	North Carolina
The Tar Heels have been under the radar for a while after being ranked near the top 10 to start the season. Losses to Florida State and Virginia will do that. They can make a big statement this week though when they host Notre Dame.
24	Auburn
Normally, it would be difficult to make a 5-2 record in the SEC seem unimpressive, but none of Auburn's wins have come against a team currently above .500 and one of the losses is to 2-6 South Carolina. Beating Alabama this week would make an impression.
25	Louisiana
The Ragin' Cajuns shocked college football with an opening weekend win at Iowa State. They also have a win at UAB outside the league. Only Coastal Carolina has defeated them so far this season. They should probably be higher than this, but I do not expect that.