The good news is that since I declared The Six Pack would turn it around, it has posted a winning record. The bad news is that going 14-10 over the past month isn't near good enough to get us out of our early-season hole.

The great news is we still have plenty of time to get there. I had a difficult time picking six games for this column for the first time this season. Not because there weren't enough games I liked, but because there were too many. I had to whittle things down to just these six games as these are the six I felt best about.

The Six Pack is going 6-0* this week, folks. I can feel it.

*unless it doesn't

Games of the Week

No. 2 LSU (-10) vs. No.9 Auburn: I took Florida +3 at home against this Auburn team a few week ago because I am a Bo Nix skeptic. It's not that I think he's bad, nor is it that I don't think he's going to be good. I just don't think he's that good yet. I felt he would struggle going on the road against a tough defense, and that's exactly what he did. Now I like LSU for a lot of the same reasons. Take a look at this breakdown of Nix at home and on the road this season.

Bo Nix

Comp%

YPA

TD

INT

Home

63.5

9.5

4

0

Road

50.5

6.3

7

5

When looking at those road stats, keep in mind Nix went 12 for 17 with three touchdowns and no interceptions on the road against lowly Arkansas last week, averaging 10.4 yards per attempt. Take that game out of the equation, and Nix's road numbers take a nosedive.

Now, LSU's defense isn't as good as Florida's, nor is it as good as the Oregon unit Nix struggled against to open the season. But it has one of the best secondaries in the country, and it's backed by one of the most prolific offenses in the country. At the end of the day, I just can't trust Nix to be able to keep up with Joe Burrow and the LSU offense. LSU 35, Auburn 24

No. 3 Ohio State (-14.5) vs. No. 13 Wisconsin: Wisconsin losing to Illinois last week messed with my plans a little bit. I had been planning on hammering the Buckeyes in this game as soon as the line was posted. I had initially expected it to be closer to 11 or 10 points, though. Now, after losing to the Illini, expectations have adjusted. The good news is the spread still isn't large enough!

Illinois and Northwestern showed the world the recipe for slowing down the Wisconsin offense. If those two can do it, I'm confident an Ohio State defense loaded with future NFL players will be able to as well. Then there's the Ohio State offense, which is light years ahead of either Illinois or Northwestern or any offense the Wisconsin defense has faced this season. There isn't a matchup in this game in which I think Wisconsin has an advantage over Ohio State. Some of them are a lot closer than others, but some might not be as close as you think. For instance, Jonathan Taylor has 957 yards this season. That's great, but Ohio State's J.K. Dobbins has 947 yards. Taylor has needed 157 carries to get there. Dobbins has only 134. Also, against Power Five competition, Taylor is averaging 5.2 yards per carry. That's not awful, but it's not what you'd expect from Taylor. Dobbins, meanwhile, is averaging 7.5 yards per carry against Power Five competition. So you can make the argument that Ohio State has a better running back than Wisconsin does, and Wisconsin's running back is the team's strength. The Buckeyes are better across the board. I think the Buckeyes are more likely to win by 20 points than 14 or fewer. Ohio State 38, Wisconsin 17

Lock of the Week

Memphis (-10.5) at Tulsa: Memphis is not a perfect football team, but it's a pretty good one. Tulsa, on the other hand, is not. I was surprised by Memphis' blowout win over Tulane last week, as I thought it would be a much more competitive game, but it helped to open my eyes to the fact this Memphis team was better than I had previously thought. It's also better than this spread suggests. I would have Memphis as a 14-point favorite in this matchup. Memphis isn't great on the offensive line or defensive line, but compared to what Tulsa's putting out there in the trenches, Memphis might as well be an SEC team in that area. These are two significant mismatches that Memphis will be able to take advantage of. My only fear is that the Tigers might get conservative with SMU looming next week, but even if they do, the gap between these two is large enough that they should still cover. Memphis 31, Tulsa 17

Under of the Week

Nevada at Wyoming (Under 43.5): The winds will be howling in Laramie on Saturday. As I write this, the forecast is calling for winds of over 21 miles per hour. That's going to make it a lot more difficult to pass the ball, which will lead to more runs, and that will keep the clock ticking. Plus, Wyoming combines a stingy defense with a snail's pace on offense. Put it all together, and you've got yourself an under stew going, baby. Wyoming 24, Nevada 14

Late Night Dog of the Week

Utah State (+3.5) at Air Force: Listen, I'm going to pick Utah State to win the game in my projection, so if you want to take the Aggies on the money line, I'm all for it. However, I still think taking the points is the safer play. Air Force has been efficient on offense, as you would expect from an option team. What it's not is explosive and Utah State has plenty of firepower. Utah State QB Jordan Love has struggled overall this season, but a lot of that has to do with games against Wake Forest, San Diego State and LSU. He's still one of the more talented QBs in the country, and his receiving corps should be able to make plays against this Air Force defense. Then there's the Utah State run defense, which ranks 22nd nationally in yards allowed per carry at 3.2. That will come in handy against Air Force. Utah State 30, Air Force 28

Big 12 Under of the Week

Oklahoma State at No. 23 Iowa State (Under 63.5): After getting off to a 2-2 start to the season, Iowa State has won three straight. Do you know what the secret has been? Its defense. The Cyclones defense has allowed fewer yards per play (4.62) than any other Big 12 defense. In conference play, the Cyclones are allowing only 21.3 points per game, which is fewer than anybody not named Oklahoma. In this game, they'll be facing an Oklahoma State offense that got off to a blistering start to the season but has cooled down. The Cowboys averaged 49.3 points in nonconference play. In four games against the Big 12, the Cowboys are averaging 29.5 points. That's nearly a three-touchdown difference. It's also not to be entirely unexpected with a freshman QB. This total is too high for what this game is more likely to look like. Iowa State 34, Oklahoma State 28

SportsLine Game of the Week

No. 8 Notre Dame a No. 19 Michigan: The Wolverines and Fighting Irish play the latest installment of their rivalry Saturday night in Ann Arbor. Notre Dame is a pick 'em, and the total is 51.5 points. I have a play available for this game, but you can only read it over at SportsLine.

Last Week

Season

Games of the Week

1-1

8-8

Lock of the Week

0-1

1-7

Overall

3-3

21-27

So what CFB picks can you make with confidence in Week 9? And which line is Vegas way off on? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams win and cover the spread in every game this week, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $4,200 in profit over the past four seasons.