oklahoma-sooners.jpg
Imagn Images

Upsets are always a fun part of watching and betting on college football, and upsets are especially massive at this stage of the season. We're at Week 12, which means we only have a few weeks left of the regular season. Teams are putting the finishing touches on their College Football Playoff resumes, and a loss could derail their aspirations. If you're interested in college football betting on underdogs, we've issued five underdog picks for Week 12 you should check out before placing any bets of your own. All spreads and money line odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

No. 11 Oklahoma (+6, +180) at No. 4 Alabama

Let's start off with a bang, shall we? The Sooners have two losses, and a third would effectively eliminate them from the CFP conversation. The Tide, meanwhile, are rolling after winning eight in a row since a Week 1 loss to Florida State and are undefeated at home under Kalen DeBoer. So why could Oklahoma pull off the stunner?

Well, Oklahoma still has a great quarterback in John Mateer, who is a dual-threat option. Those kinds of QBs have given the Tide fits at times over the last two years, and those signal-callers are great for moving the chains and eating clock. Oklahoma also has a great defense, though it's struggled more against ranked foes like Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee. This is the last real test Alabama will have this season, while Oklahoma can't afford to lose again. The Sooners will pull out all the stops here, which could make this one real interesting to watch, especially if Mateer is on point.

No. 10 Texas (+6, +190) at No. 5 Georgia

This would be a massive win for the Longhorns. Texas lost three times last year, and two of those were to Georgia. Texas has two losses right now, so another loss is likely out of the question if the Longhorns want to make it to their third CFP in a row. Texas has more than a puncher's chance here. 

Texas has played much better offensively of late, with Arch Manning starting to click in his first year as a starter. This is also a different Georgia defense, as the Bulldogs have played far more close games and shootouts than we're used to seeing under Kirby Smart. If Texas can jump out to an early lead, this could get real fun in Athens, which is one of the toughest places to play in the nation. 

No. 20 Virginia (+6, +195) at Duke

Virginia was in the driver's seat for an ACC Championship Game appearance before losing to Wake Forest last week. That's created a logjam atop the ACC with five teams with one loss in conference play. Virginia is one of those five, while Duke is another. These teams meet in Durham on Saturday in a game with massive ACC title game and CFP implications. 

The Cavs are the underdogs here despite being 8-2 to Duke's 5-4. The Blue Devils' lone ACC loss was to Georgia Tech, another team with one conference loss, and they went 1-3 in non-conference play with losses to Illinois, Tulane and UConn. But Duke has quietly taken care of business in ACC play. Virginia's loss to Wake Forest was bad, but it doesn't end their CFP hopes. The Cavs can't make the CFP with another loss, and last week could serve as a wake-up call for Tony Elliott's squad. They're the better team overall and still have everything in front of them should they win Saturday night.

Iowa (+7, +200) at No. 17 USC

Man, how different would Iowa's game against Oregon have been if not for that safety on a botched punt snap? The Hawkeyes lost 18-16 on a last-second field goal thanks to that safety and going for a 2-point try and make it 18-15 before Oregon's final drive. Well, you live and you learn, and the Hawkeyes have to get back on the wagon this weekend with a tough road contest against USC. 

The Trojans have two losses on the year, and a third would make it nearly impossible for USC to make the CFP. The Trojans also still have to face Oregon, so this is a massive game against Iowa. They have struggled defensively this year, and the Hawkeyes can move the ball and eat clock with their run game. Iowa has been able to keep things close against better teams than USC, and if anyone can get the Trojans into an uncomfortable game where field position is key and possessions are limited, it's Iowa. 

Northwestern (+11.5, +380) at No. 18 Michigan

This is the biggest longshot we'll highlight as Northwestern hosts Michigan. The Wildcats are 5-4 in a bounceback year after a four-win campaign in 2024, while the Wolverines are 7-2 in Sherrone Moore's second year running the show. Outside of conference games presenting unique challenges against familiar foes, Michigan's home/road splits are a massive part of why the Wolverines are on upset alert this weekend. 

Michigan is 5-0 at home this year, outscoring its opponents 167-53 while allowing 17 or fewer points in all five of those games. The Wolverines are 2-2 on the road this year, however, allowing 102 points (24 or more three times) and scoring just 84 points (13 twice, 30 and 31 in the other two). Michigan's offense is boom-or-bust away from home, while the defense is much worse playing on the road. Northwestern's offense isn't very good (21.9 points per game) but the team's defense is great, ranking 22nd in the nation at 19.1 points per game. If the Wildcats can stop Michigan's running game on early downs, this could become one of the bigger upsets of the Week 12 slate.