We're getting back to the basics this week. When this column first started, it was called Pick Six, and it had a basic formula. I would identify my lock, an underdog, as well as an over and an under every week. Add in the two biggest games of the week, and voila, we had six picks. The format changed -- as did the name -- and it had absolutely no impact on my performance picking games.

However, this year, I've had issues picking games. While I've dug out of a deep hole to start the season, I'm still only 34-38 on the season. So I've decided to blame the format change, and this week we're going back to the beginning.

I believe it was the great American philosopher Matthew McConaughey who once said, "sometimes you gotta go back to actually move forward." That's what The Six Pack is doing this week, and we're going back to move forward to a perfect week.

Games of the Week

No. 8 Penn State at No. 2 Ohio State (Under 57.5): I was disappointed when I saw the spread for this game. I had been hoping that it would be closer to 14 or 15 points so I could hammer Ohio State. Instead, with Penn State losing to Minnesota two weeks ago and not winning convincingly last week, this line is more realistic. While I would lay the points with Ohio State before I took the points with Penn State, I don't like either side much.

Instead, I like the under. The way I look at this game, Ohio State either blows Penn State out of the water and wins a 38-17 kind of game, or Penn State keeps it close by uglying things up a bit. I don't think Penn State can afford to get into a shootout if it wants to win this game because Ohio State has it out-gunned by a long shot. So the Nittany Lions best bet will be to limit possessions and keep the Ohio State offense off the field. That plays to the under as well. Ohio State 37, Penn State 17

Texas A&M (+13.5) at No. 4 Georgia: You've made a lot of money taking the under in Georgia games this season, but the total for this game is a little lower than I'd like it. While the under has gone 8-2 in Georgia's first 10 games, the average total for those games has been 52.15 points. This total is a full touchdown below that at 45. Still, I expect it to be a lower-scoring game that won't get far past the total (if it does), and that makes Texas A&M and the points look more attractive.

Georgia is the No. 4 team in the country, and it deserves to be. But, unlike the three teams ranked above it, it's not a team built to blow you out. It wants to smother and suffocate you. Playing Georgia is like a slow form of torture as you realize that you're not likely to win the game, and there isn't much you can do about it. But there's still time on the clock, so you have to play. As for the Aggies, while they are the poster child for Respectable Loss Syndrome without any impressive wins, those three respectable losses were respectable performances as well! This is a team that has shown it's not quite good enough to beat the elite, but it is good enough not to be embarrassed by them. Georgia 24, Texas A&M 13

Lock of the Week

Navy (-3.5) vs. No. 25 SMU: This is a nightmare matchup for SMU. Overall, the Mustangs rush defense hasn't been all that bad. They've allowed only 3.53 yards per carry overall, but they also give up a lot of big runs. By my explosiveness metric, SMU's rush defense ranks 102nd in the country containing runs of 20 yards or more. That's not a great sign against a Navy offense that ranks 15th nationally in that department. While Navy got torched by Notre Dame last week, the Irish were a step up in class that the Midshipmen just couldn't handle. That's not the case with this SMU team. Navy 38, SMU 31

Underdog of the Week

Tennessee (+4) at Missouri: I love the Vols in this spot. Let's take a look at these teams over the last month or so. Tennessee has gone 4-1 in its previous five games, with its lone loss coming to Alabama. Then there's Mizzou, which enters this game having lost four straight. Granted, two of those losses were to Georgia and Florida, but the other two came against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Mizzou has managed to score 27 points total in those four losses. Granted, the Tigers have been a much better team at home, but this Tennessee defense has gotten better as the year has gone on. The blueprint for stopping Missouri's offense is out. Kelly Bryant hasn't shown an ability to beat teams deep as he's averaging 6.8 yards per attempt in conference play, with five touchdowns to go with four interceptions. Without a reason to fear being beaten over the top, defenses are crowding the line of scrimmage and daring Mizzou to do something about it. To this point, they haven't shown the ability to do so. Tennessee 24, Missouri 21

Over of the Week

TCU at No. 9 Oklahoma (Over 65): Oklahoma overs have become a principle play. I'll remind you that since Lincoln Riley took over the reins of the program, the over has gone 24-13-1 in Oklahoma games. Against Big 12 opponents, the over is 18-9. At home, against anybody, the over has gone 14-3-1 in Oklahoma games. What gives me even greater confidence is how Oklahoma's defense has played lately. Remember the Texas game when the Sooners defense was swarming all over the field, and we were all left wondering if the Sooners had figured things out? Well, they haven't. Oklahoma is allowing an average of 40 points per game in its last three games. The TCU offense is averaging 30.3 points per game in conference play. Add it all up, and that 65 suddenly starts to look too small, doesn't it? Oklahoma 45, TCU 30

Under of the Week

Texas at No. 14 Baylor (Under 59.5): Here's another trend that's become something of a principle play for me. Much like the over does well in Oklahoma games, Texas and unders are on a roll. Tom Herman took over the program in 2016, and the under has gone 24-11 in Texas' Big 12 games. It's 11-6 when Texas is on the road, and it's 4-2 when Texas is on the road as an underdog. All of which are things that apply here. The under has also gone 15-10 in Baylor's Big 12 games since Matt Rhule took over the program. Baylor 27, Texas 24

Last Week

Season

Games of the Week

0-2

11-13

Lock of the Week

0-1

3-9

Overall

2-4

34-38

Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 13? And which line is way off? Visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $4,000 in profit over the past four seasons.