The Six Pack: College football picks for Auburn-LSU, USC-Texas and a big Week 3 slate
It's time to #TrustTheProcess and lock it up this Six Pack of college football picks for Week 3
Pick Six is dead; long live The Six Pack. Don't worry, the column may have a new name, but it's still handing out the same winners. Longtime readers know the deal. I give you six picks for the weekend of college football games, and all you have to do is collect your money.
After a rough 1-5 start to the season during the opening week, we bounced back in Week 2, going 4-2. Let's keep that momentum going this Saturday, and we'll start with the SEC on CBS Game of the Week.
No. 12 LSU at No. 7 Auburn (Under 45): If I've taken away anything from what I've seen from LSU and Auburn in the first two weeks, it's that I love watching their defenses get to work, and I just don't think either of them are strong enough offensively to compete with Alabama in the West. It's a feeling that is playing a significant role in my pick for this contest because I see this game being a struggle for both offenses.
Should the under hit, it won't be a new phenomenon by any means. Each of the last four games in this series at Auburn has gone under, as have five of Auburn's last six home games and six of LSU's last seven road contests. I also like LSU +9.5 if you're looking for a read on the spread, but the under is the safer play. Auburn 24, LSU 17
Tulane (-4) at UAB: I've been on the Tulane Train since I began doing preview work on the 2018 season in the spring, and I'm not about to hop off now. While Tulane is only 1-1 on the season, it has gone 2-0 ATS, covering as a seven-point dog against Wake Forest and easily covering against a Nicholls State team that beat Kansas. Tulane 34, UAB 27
Miami (OH) at Minnesota (Under 46.5): After two games this season, the Minnesota offense is averaging 5.49 yards per play, which ranks 87th in the nation. Miami's offense is averaging 4.83 yards per play, and that ranks 110th. Both teams have been stronger on defense as Minnesota ranks 21st in yards allowed per play and Miami is 53rd. So we're dealing with two stale offenses and a couple of solid defenses, which usually leads to fewer points. Throw in the fact Minnesota just lost its workhorse running back Rodney Smith for the season and will need to put more of the load on the shoulders of a freshman quarterback, and the under only looks more attractive. Minnesota 27, Miami (OH) 10
Kent State (+35) at No. 11 Penn State: Want to know a secret? I think Kent State might be good this year. The Golden Flashes nearly knocked off Illinois in their opener, and last week they crushed Howard 54-14. That's the same Howard team led by Cam Newton's younger brother; it nearly knocked off Ohio in Week 1 and beat UNLV last season. Kent State QB Woody Barrett was a four-star prospect out of Orlando, Florida, who originally committed to Auburn before spending a year at the JUCO level and joining Kent State this season. He's talented, and he's helped take a Kent State offense that scored 12.8 points per game last season and put 78 points on the board through their first two games. Kent State isn't going to beat Penn State, or even threaten it, but its offense will be successful enough to stay within the spread. Penn State 45, Kent State 17
Central Michigan (+14) at Northern Illinois: Something I've always looked for in picking games is the double-digit underdog in a conference game with a low total. So welcome to Central Michigan +14. Yes, the Chippewas lost to Kansas at home last week, but that loss is influencing this spread too much -- particularly when the total is set at 44.5. Plus, have you watched the Northern Illinois offense this season? Yes, it has played two tough defenses in Iowa and Utah, but it's only scored 13 points in those two games and is averaging 3.18 yards per play. The Huskies have only one play that gained more than 20 yards so far this season. It's not a potent offense! I'd expect improvement this week, but not enough to warrant laying two touchdowns. Northern Illinois 23, Central Michigan 14
Lock of the Week
Oregon State (+3.5) at Nevada: Yes, I am making an Oregon State team that has gone 8-30 straight up and 16-22 ATS since the start of the 2015 season my Lock of the Week. Why would I do that? Well, if you'll allow me to answer your question with another question, I ask you: What the hell has Nevada done this season to warrant being a 3.5-point favorite against Oregon State?
Let's review Nevada's season so far. It began with a 72-19 win over Portland State, which is impressive until you learn that Portland State is 3-21 since 2016. The Wolf Pack followed up that win by getting smacked 41-10 by Vanderbilt last week. Oregon State, meanwhile, lost to Ohio State by 46 points in its opener, but what you may have overlooked is that the Beavers put 31 points on the board against the Buckeyes and averaged 6.22 yards per play. This line is wrong. Oregon State 37, Nevada 30
SportsLine bonus pick
No. 22 USC at Texas: The Longhorns welcome the Trojans to Austin on Saturday and are currently favored by three points. The total is set at 48. If you'd like to see my play for this game, head over to SportsLine for my selection along with projections and picks for every college football game in Week 3.
| Last week | 2018 Season | |
|---|---|---|
Game of the Week | 1-2 | 2-4 |
Lock of the Week | 1-0 | 1-1 |
OVERALL | 4-2 | 5-7 |
















